Portland Trail Blazers Week Preview And Predictions – 3/17

We’ll mix things up today in the Portland Trail Blazers weekly preview. We’ll not only take care of the rest of this week’s games, but we’ll do next week’s as well.

Without further ado, let’s get this show rolling!

Stats provided by NBA.com and basketball-reference.com. All games can be heard on the radio partner of Oregon Sports News, AM 620 Rip City Radio.

Thursday, March 17: @ the San Antonio Spurs, 5:30 PM, KGW and NBATV (Note: If you live within the Oregon/SW Washington area, NBATV will black the game out.)

The Skinny: If the Golden State Warriors are the best team in the NBA this season, the Spurs are a solid number two. With a record of 57-10, and being undefeated at home this season (think about this: LaMarcus Aldridge has never lost a home game as a Spur), San Antonio’s season would be talked about as a seminal achievement for Gregg Popovich, a perfect marriage of the old guard and the new blood…if the Warriors weren’t outpacing the 1996 Chicago Bulls in the win column.

Of all the ways to describe the Warriors’ all-consuming dominance, the way the Spurs have been relegated to 1-A status to the Warriors’ 1 is the best descriptor. It is awfully hard to take the best defensive team in the NBA (by Defensive Rating), the third-best offense in the NBA, anchored by perhaps the best two-way player in the league in Kawhi Leonard, and a squad that has an All-Star veteran forward, three future Hall-of-Famers, and a group of skilled role players flanking that superstar, and basically relegate them to an afterthought.

That’s what Golden State is doing, though. The Warriors have some basketball analysts saying they’re all but guaranteed to win the NBA title in June. I disagree, because only a goober would count San Antonio out, but given the Warriors’ casual dominance over everybody else but the Spurs, it’s easy to see why those writers would have that opinion.

How these two juggernauts of the West match up against each other is still a mystery, because amazingly, they’ve played just once so far this season. The upcoming three matchups will be entertaining basketball, but they’d pale in comparison to a potential Western Conference Finals matchup, one we were cheated out of by the Los Angeles Clippers defeating the Spurs in the first round last year. Which was the one time in the history of the universe that the Clippers didn’t suck or flake out.

Even if the Spurs fall short this season, they’re still better set up for the future than Golden State; the Spurs have already replaced the majority of the old core with new stars, while the Warriors are faced with having to replace ancillary players they can’t possibly pay. The Spurs have proven their longevity many times over; to put it plainly, the Warriors are a trend, but the Spurs are the standard.

Player To Watch: Noah Vonleh and Meyers Leonard. Aldridge is looking at Meyers in particular, and thinking that he could drop 40 on him no problem. Popovich’s system hasn’t let Aldridge totally loose this season, but the former Blazer might get a few extra shots this game anyway. Ego, even with a guy as understated as Aldridge, is a powerful thing in professional athletics.

Prediction: Just like with Golden State, there’s no chance the Spurs get their home winning streak broken by some middling team. Blazers lose.

Friday, March 18: @ the New Orleans Pelicans, 5:00 PM, CSNNW

The Skinny: I read something interesting a few weeks ago concerning the Pelicans’ superstar big man, Anthony Davis. Davis, who was the first overall pick in the 2012 Draft, was the subject of an inane discussion among some writer/writers (I forget who come out with it) centered around this question: who would you take right now, Davis or Damian Lillard, who was the sixth pick in that Draft?

That this is even a question shows how far Davis’ fortunes have fallen, through NO fault of his own. Davis is putting up 24 and 10 a night, with 50% shooting from the field, a new three-point shot, and a PER of 25. His numbers are still consistent with his production from last season; his FG% is a little lower, but that’s due to Davis taking more threes.

For all his gifts, though, Davis is but one man. And the Pellies have had a mismatched, oft-injured roster around him from practically day one.

As for the Lillard-or-Davis question, even in this guard-powered modern NBA, you take Davis. Even though Davis has a horrible defensive rating this year, that’s due to the team around him being in a total shambles. Davis is one of maybe four or five guys you can truly build a championship franchise around; his ceiling is basically Tim Duncan with handles and a three-point shot.

It isn’t the Brow’s fault that Monty Williams, Alvin Gentry, and Dell Demps stink at their jobs, nor that the team’s owner, octogenarian Tom Benson, has been embroiled in a lawsuit questioning his ability to run a sports franchise. It also isn’t Davis’ fault that everybody around him has been getting hurt.

He once in awhile provides much-needed reminders of his awesomeness, like a 59-point, 20-rebound explosion a couple weeks ago. For this season, at least, Anthony Davis has been exiled to the NBA wasteland.

Here’s hoping he comes back with enough water to purge the Pelicans organization clean, and start anew.

Player To Watch: Mason Plumlee. He’ll be tasked with watching Davis on defense. May God have mercy on his soul.

Prediction: I know that I made this pick before, and got burned for it. New Orleans really does suck, though. I’ll pick the Blazers to win, and hope that this time they don’t lay an egg–in a game they really need to stay in the playoff picture.

Sunday, March 20: @ the Dallas Mavericks, 1:00 PM, CSNNW

Wednesday, March 23: vs. the Dallas Mavericks, 7:00 PM, KGW

The Skinny: Here are the standings in the Western Conference, one through nine:

Pay attention to the six-through-eight slots in particular. Portland is currently in possession of sixth place in the West–avoiding a certain sweep at the hands of either of the top two teams is the goal here–but their hold on that spot is tenuous at best.

Houston, as I’m typing this, are getting their asses kicked by the Clippers, and the Blazers have the head-to-head tiebreaker against them as well. They are talented, but dysfunctional.

The threat right now is Dallas. Because as you no doubt noticed, they play the Blazers in consecutive games on Sunday and Wednesday.

With the Blazers currently up one game, and the standings likely to change between now and Sunday, these games are the most pivotal in the season for both teams. If either one sweeps the two-game set, they’ll gain an advantage that the loser would have a hard time overcoming.

Portland does have that extra game up on Dallas, but the Mavs have already taken the first game of their three-game season series. If they win either of these last two, Dallas gets the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Either the Blazers bury the declining Mavericks for the rest of the season (dropping two full games, and surrendering the tiebreaker in the bargain, this late in the season would be a virtual death knell for Dallas), or the Mavs pick themselves up and show some fight. Let’s see just how much of a killer instinct these young Blazers possess, or rather, how much of that instinct Lillard is able to pass on.

Player To Watch: Damian Lillard for both games. Like I said, these are the most important games of the year for both Portland and Dallas. In these kinds of games, you need your star player to come up big, and Lillard has proved in the past that he has a flair for these moments.

Prediction: After spending a few paragraphs and a table hyping this matchup, I’m going to call it a wash. Portland loses the road game, which comes at the end of a road trip, and pays back the Mavs at home after a few days’ rest.

Blazers would surrender the head-to-head tiebreaker in this scenario.

Thursday, March 24: @ the Los Angeles Clippers, 7:30 PM, CSNNW

The Skinny:  The Clippers have been swamped in Blake Griffin drama for the entirety of 2016. After originally injuring his quad on Christmas Day, Griffin then had perhaps the brain malfunction of the NBA season, punching an equipment manager (who was reportedly good friends with Griffin) at a bar in Toronto. He had a broken hand and a four-game suspension from the league office, which Griffin will start serving the instant he’s medically cleared to play.

First off, the Clippers, despite maintaining their position in the West and challenging the Thunder for the third seed, are definitely not better without Griffin. Griffin is one of the best power forwards in the game, a bully who uses his strength and athleticism to get points near the basket, with a decent midrange jumper to complement his post game. Griffin is also the best passing big man in the league; the reason why the Clippers are always around the top of the offensive rating rankings is because of Chris Paul and Griffin getting everybody good shots and easy buckets.

Those gifts apparently come with quite the diva package, however. Griffin is often seen as moody and somewhat entitled behind-the-scenes, and his status as the man who saved the Clippers would only further inflate his ego. His name has come up in trade rumors both before the deadline in February and after; if a deal happens, it’ll likely be executed around draft night.

Dealing Griffin after the season would only happen if the Clippers failed to reach the Conference Finals yet again, or if Griffin himself either demanded a trade or put himself forever beyond the team’s good graces. Given that Griffin loves Los Angeles (like many NBA players) and that the Clippers brass is a largely tolerant group, any potential trade would be made with the intent of shaking up the roster.

Griffin has the most value, being younger than Paul and more versatile than DeAndre Jordan, but if the Clippers dealt him, it would signal the end of their fringe contendership, and the first step of a rebuild owner Steve Ballmer–a man that just shelled out $2 billion for this team–doesn’t want any part of. They’re likely going to keep Blake Griffin.

No matter how much drama he creates or how many “friends” he pummels in the face.

Player To Watch: CJ McCollum. Clippers sharpshooter J.J. Redick is a master at using screens to get open; I just watched him use a Jordan off-ball screen to get an inch of space to fire off a three-pointer. Swish.

McCollum’s going to get a workout in this game, courtesy of the white Reggie Miller.

Prediction: Blazers lose.

Saturday, March 26: vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, 7:00 PM, CSNNW

The Skinny: There are worthy contenders for the hallowed title of Worst Team In The NBA this season, more so than the last three seasons. You have the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have great talent on their roster, but are painfully young. Their time among the better teams in the NBA is coming, and coming soon.

You have the Los Angeles Lakers, who also have some promising youngsters, but are coached by the most clueless being in the modern NBA, a man still trying to win when his team has the worst record in the West, and needs to lose to keep their first-round draft pick this year. Hey Byron Scott, you’re toast anyway. How about helping out that Laker legacy you’re a part of by letting D’Angelo Russell play through his mistakes, instead of demanding that a teenager play like a ten-year veteran or else?

You have the Brooklyn Nets, who have no direct control over their first-round picks until 2020. They are 19-48, among the very worst teams in the league, and they won’t reap the only benefit of being such a crappy team. In fact, the Boston Celtics, who own the Nets’ first-rounder thanks to the Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett trade, could very well end up with the first overall pick this year.

Seeing a surefire All-Star like Ben Simmons suiting up for a divisional rival for the next 15 years should be a sufficiently painful lesson for Brooklyn to NEVER mortgage the future.

And I have to mention the Phoenix Suns, an exciting team that won 48 games just two years ago. They’ve devolved into a haphazard mess due to the Morris brothers being uncontrollable and immature, Jeff Hornacek being unable to control the egos of his team (and losing his job because of it), Eric Bledsoe continually suffering season-ending injuries, Brandon Knight being worse than Goran Dragic, and just generally being a giant pile of sadness and what-ifs.

But the winner for Worst Team has to be, must be, should be, the Philadelphia 76ers.

The record of 9-58 helps their cause, certainly, but it’s not just because of that record. It’s because they’ve spent three years trying to lose as much as possible and amass as much young talent as they can, but the high-end draft picks they’ve used have been on:

• Michael Carter-Williams, who now plays for Milwaukee.

• Joel Embiid, who has suffered multiple foot injuries and hasn’t played a minute in the NBA.

• Nerlens Noel, a center/power forward who’s too slender for center and too unskilled to be a modern 4.

• Dario Saric, a lottery pick that was a draft-and-stash. Only David Kahn was ever dumb enough to use a lottery pick on someone who wouldn’t play for him for at least two years. Him and Sam Hinkie.

• Jahlil Okafor, whose rookie season was highlighted by him getting into a fight in Boston.

Noel and Okafor have promise, but neither of them can shoot beyond 12 feet; for a man of the modern analytical school of thought, Hinkie sure went very primitive and old-school with his drafts. And don’t get me started on their utter lack of a point guard.

If bringing in Kendall Marshall and Ish Smith represents a large upgrade in the quality of your point guard play, you officially are unfit to be the general manager of an NBA team. Which is likely going to be what consultant Jerry Colangelo will think of Hinkie after the season.

The Sixers will have a high draft pick again this year, and if the Lakers’ pick falls outside the top three, they get that pick this year too. For the sake of a great basketball city, and great basketball franchise, Sam Hinkie should be totally removed from the decision-making process ASAP.

Player To Watch: meh.

Prediction: Blazers avenge the loss in Philly.