Welcome to this week’s OSN Portland Trail Blazers Weekly Preview! Always on Mondays, always your first, best spot to see what your beloved Blazers will go up against this week, and review what they did right or wrong last week!
The Blazers had a very successful run last week. Going 3-1 in a four-game NBA week is never a mean feat, whether you’re the world-destroying Golden State Warriors or the hapless Brooklyn Nets. Two questions come to mind when reviewing Portland’s week: how and who?
How the Blazers won three games can be summed up by one name: Damian Lillard. Despite my worries that he’d be an inefficient mess to start the season, the other Blazers (especially CJ McCollum) have done enough on offense to warrant some defensive attention, meaning that Lillard has more space to do his thing.
He’s also gotten better at doing his thing, and that cold confidence Lillard’s famous for is back in full force so far this season. Dame’s playing his game, which is running pick-and-rolls, driving to the rim, and popping three-pointers when he gets even an inch of space. Amazing how good he can look when he isn’t dumping the ball to LaMarcus Aldridge 50 times a game.
That’s some of the how in the equation. The who, as in just who the Blazers beat, is a sobering slap awake.
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies are 27th and 29th, respectively, in offensive rating so far this year, showing an inability to keep up with the Blazers’ free-wheeling offense. The Grizzlies, in particular, look especially pathetic to begin the season. As for the other team the Blazers beat last week, the Utah Jazz, they’re a middling 17th in offensive rating, and their best offensive player, Gordon Hayward, has struggled out of the gate. The Jazz aren’t ever going to outscore opponents on a consistent basis; like the Grizzlies, they’re going to look to grind down other teams with suffocating defense.
Then…Detroit happened.
The Pistons were well on their way to joining the list of the slain, despite a hot start to the season. The Blazers led by 13 entering the fourth before arguably the most epic collapse in NBA regular-season history (no, I’m not kidding) resulted in Detroit outscoring Portland by an impossible 30 points in the quarter, and blowing the doors off the Moda Center.
Reggie Jackson scoring 40 with 26 coming in the fourth, and Andre Drummond hanging 29 points and 27 rebounds (including nine offensive rebounds…more than the entire Blazers team), and the Blazers going impossibly cold…they did blow a giant lead to the Clippers in preseason, but good Lord…
If anyone tells you that the Blazers could be good this year, or if you somehow harbor hopes of a playoff run (like my brother), the Detroit game is my rebuttal. This was a learning experience, a lesson in how to win in the NBA, and a reason to never, ever turn off the TV when the Blazers are playing.
Good or bad, they will make something happen that will catch the attention of whoever‘s watching. Playing against good offenses like the Pistons‘, and showing no spine whatsoever, will bring much more of the bad than the good.
Time for this week’s picks! Let’s go!
(Stats courtesy of NBA.com and basketball-reference.com. Games can be heard on AM 620 Rip City Radio.)
Monday, Nov. 9: @ the Denver Nuggets, 6:00 PM, CSNNW
The Skinny: At least the Blazers don’t have to sit at home and think about the horrid Detroit loss. Having to get on a plane right after the game and play again tomorrow isn’t fun, especially in the altitude of Denver, but in this particular case, it might be a blessing.
It also helps that the Nuggets are in flux. After trading Ty Lawson to the Houston Rockets in the off-season, Denver’s entered a weird in-between state where they have non-star veterans like Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried playing with youngsters like Gary Harris and Emmanuel Mudiay. Danilo Gallinari coming back, and trying to resuscitate an injury-riddled career, is another variable the Nuggets really don’t need.
I don’t envy coach Michael Malone, to say the least. Malone is a Scott Skiles-like grinder, a defense-first guy who’s not very creative on the offensive end, and he was left with the vestiges of George Karl’s fever dream-like run-and-gun squad.
The biggest malcontent, Lawson, is now gone, his drinking problems now Houston’s headache. I wonder how many of his ex-teammates will be sent out of town this season. One thing’s for sure: Denver needs to stop playing footsy with the idea of a rebuild, and fully commit to it. The young point guard Mudiay is a good place to start.
Player To Watch: It’s incredibly cliché to go with the star player vs. the young player, but highlighting Damian Lillard serves another purpose here. Keep in mind that the Blazers just lost a game where they got outscored by 30 points in the fourth quarter.
In the NBA, it’s really damn hard to get outscored by 30 in a game. To get squashed like that in a single quarter…that hasn’t happened since 1980, or five years before I was born.
How the Blazers respond and recover from that will have a great deal to do with Lillard. He’s the leader, he’s the star, he’s the guy that signed up for this. He has to demand accountability from his young teammates. Playing well on the floor is going to be a given from Dame now; it’s the game off the floor, boosting his teammate’s confidence back up while making sure they finish the job next time, that will be his real measuring stick not just in this game, but in the following weeks.
Prediction: The hangover from that disastrous collapse combined with the high altitude sink Portland in this game.
Wednesday, November 11: versus the San Antonio Spurs, 7:30 PM, ESPN and KGW
The Skinny: Oh look everyone, LaMarcus Aldridge is back!
This game is the nightcap for ESPN’s doubleheader, which will feature the Los Angeles Clippers against the Dallas Mavericks…marketed by the Four-Letter Network as DeAndre Jordan’s team against the team that nearly signed Jordan before the Clippers made an eleventh-hour pitch to the big man. It was a drama-filled fustercluck that some thought humorous, and others thought ridiculous, and still others thought was both.
Aldridge leaving Portland didn’t have nearly as much drama involved, though Neil Olshey firing an assistant coach for saying what everybody associated with the Blazers was thinking was a petty thing to do.
Speaking solely for myself, I don’t harbor any resentment towards Aldridge leaving. I do wish he would have stayed, but I understand the move to San Antonio. It fits on many levels, professional and personal, and in the end was typical Aldridge. The Spurs are a no-nonsense organization that knows how to win, and Aldridge is a no-nonsense player that’s spent as much time as he pleased carrying an NBA team.
His stats are obviously down this season, as he’s averaging 15 PPG, nine RPG, and shooting 44% from the field. He’s barely attempted any three-pointers after making that shot a part of his diet last year in Portland, and his midrange shooting is under 30%. Aldridge is still figuring out his role in the Spurs’ offense and hierarchy.
Aldridge is a smart guy, though, and so are coach Gregg Popovich, franchise icon Tim Duncan, and ascendant star player Kawhi Leonard. They should figure it out in time.
Player To Watch: Al-Farouq Aminu and Moe Harkless. They will be playing small forward across from Leonard, who’s perhaps the preeminent perimeter defensive ace in the NBA today. I expect Leonard to shadow Lillard most of the game, especially since Tony Parker was never a decent defender and is showing signs of aging.
It will be up to Aminu and Harkless to take advantage of Leonard not being on them. Aminu, in particular, has flashed a nice dribble-drive game complemented by…three-point shooting!?
Aminu was a sub-30% three-point shooter entering the season; he’s still at 29% for his career. That said. as of Monday, and even after missing all four of his outside attempts last night, Aminu is 9-25 on threes this season, good for 36%.
Harkless is a better outside shooter than Aminu, though he lacks both the dribble-drive and Aminu’s defensive abilities. Harkless is 7-16 on threes so far.
Whichever one of them is on the floor must help Lillard on offense by punishing either Parker or Danny Green (Green is a very good defender too, for what it’s worth), then limiting Leonard when on defense. Taking Kawhi out of the equation is an absolute must if the Blazers want to win.
Prediction: The Spurs are too good and too much of a veteran team to get caught up in the hoopla surrounding Aldridge’s return to Portland. Aldridge will get a few more plays run for him than usual, but that’s going to be it.
The Spurs machine chews up the Blazers.
Friday, Nov. 13: @ the Memphis Grizzlies, 5:00 PM, CSNNW
The Skinny: Gotta love NBA scheduling. After playing the Phoenix Suns in back-to-back games, Portland now faces the Grizzlies for the second time in eight days.
How horrible has Memphis looked so far? Frankly, I think it’s the story of the NBA so far this season. Everyone knew the Warriors were going to be awesome (though not this awesome, I’ll grant), that Kevin Durant would be coming back, and it’s still too early to condemn the Clippers, Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks, or any of the second-tier teams for moves they made or didn’t make.
Memphis falling totally apart on defense is something nobody in their right mind expected. Without that elite defense propping up their annually mediocre offense, the Grizzlies suddenly become more like the Cubbies. 29th in offensive rating plus 26th in defensive rating equals a craptastic start to the season.
The Grizz are a veteran team capable of figuring this out, and star center Marc Gasol is battling a neck injury, but the clock on this team was already ticking before these troubles. If Memphis isn’t careful, Gasol may spend the tail end of his prime carrying a middling team with him, Mike Conley, and a bunch of blah players in three years.
Player To Watch: Mason Plumlee and Meyers Leonard won the matchup eight nights ago, using youth, hustle, and their offsetting skills (Plum on the inside, Meyers stretching the Memphis D on the outside) to negate Gasol and Zach Randolph, and allow the hot-shooting duo of Lillard and McCollum to totally swamp the Grizz.
I still have that game on my DVR, and whenever I get depressed about the lumps this team’s taking and will take (like last night), I re-watch that game, and I take heart again.
Anyway, that’s the key to this game again. Momentum and hustle are harder to maintain on the road, but the recipe for success is clear. Plumlee and Meyers just have to go out and execute.
Prediction: The Blazers get a rebound win in Memphis.
Sunday, Nov. 15: @ the Charlotte Hornets, 2:00 PM, CSNNW
The Skinny: We get to see another former Blazer, Nicolas Batum, in this one. And stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Batum’s having a horrible shooting slump.
Nic’s shooting 36% from the field, including 32% from three. He is doing his Swiss Army Knife thing for the Hornets in place of the injured Michael Kidd-Gilchrest, putting up a 12/7/4 slash line in points, rebounds and assists, and his Net Rating of 5.1 indicates a positive impact on the game despite his horrid shooting…again, very familiar.
The Hornets as a team are currently fourth in the league in offensive rating, which is an extreme outlier. Charlotte has never been a good offensive team in the Steve Clifford era, but they’ve had offensive success so far. They’ve also played good teams; easily the worst team the Hornets have played is Dallas on the road.
That might also explain their poor defensive rating, which drags their advanced stats down. Facing the Hawks twice, the Spurs, the new-look Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls, and the all-offense no-defense Mavericks will do a number on your defense.
My guess is that we’ll see the Hornets’ numbers stabilize to levels close to last season’s. They might be a little better on offense because of Batum’s skills, but they could also slip on defense. They’re without Kidd-Gilchrest for the season, and Batum, bless his heart, isn’t in MKG’s class as a defender.
Player To Watch: I’m interested in seeing Aminu battle the guy he replaced in Portland, Batum. Unlike Aldridge, Batum might want to prove a point to the Blazers by attacking Aminu on defense. As Blazer fans know, a motivated Batum is dangerous, but Aminu is a long-armed menace on defense. I’ll be in a bar, watching with interest and trying not to imbibe deadly levels of whiskey before my friend shows up.
Honorable mention goes to Mason Plumlee, since he has to battle Professor Al Jefferson in the post on defense.
Prediction: I’m unsure how this will shake out. Charlotte’s been a very good offensive team so far, but that’s mostly guys starting out hot, like the Blazers. Both teams are also limp noodles on defense so far.
For the last two hours, I’ve changed my mind about 15 times. I finally flipped a coin, and it came up in the Blazers’ favor. Portland wins.
Besides, the Blazers will have the best player on the floor in Lillard. That should help a little bit.
Last week, the Blazers went 3-1. I recorded an awful, abysmal 0-4 week. That might be my first ever winless week on Oregon Sports News. Holy crap.
Trail Blazers’ Record: 4-3
Jared’s Picks Record: 1-6
Bro Counter: 31 to go!
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