The Portland Trail Blazers are on a roll heading into the All-Star break, winning nine out of their last 11 games, and have slid into eighth in the Western Conference. Right now, they would qualify for their third straight playoff berth in three years, which would be astounding considering that Portland GM Neil Olshey had to replace 80% of the starting lineup, and most of the roster overall, with a motley collection of specialized veterans and unproven youngsters.
As great as this current streak of play has been for the Blazers, the unfortunate truth is that most of those victories have come against average and terrible teams; the Oklahoma City Thunder (whom the Blazers beat) and the Atlanta Hawks (whom they lost to) are easily the best teams they’ve played in their last 11 games.
CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard have combined for 44 PPG and 11.8 APG during those games, yet nobody else averaged more than nine points per game, further illustrating the overdependence of the roster on their backcourt. That would have bit them in the backside against Minnesota and Charlotte, if those teams could score in turn; the Timberwolves, in particular, looked woeful against the Blazers’ pathetic defense, more proof that Sam Mitchell needs to go back to NBATV and let someone who isn’t stuck in 1996 coach an NBA team.
In the playoffs, other than the obvious talent disparity the Blazers would face, it will become known real quick that if you can shut down either Lillard or McCollum, nobody else on the Portland roster has the chops or game to make up for it.
Against the Timberwolves, Sacramento Kings, or Los Angeles Lakers, the Blazers can overcome an off night from one of their dynamic duo.
Against the Golden State Warriors or San Antonio Spurs, one of those off nights will equate to getting blown out by 50. Hell, those squads are still so superior to the Blazers, a 50-point blowout might happen anyway.
The Blazers still want to get to the playoffs though. The draft pick they’ll lose will be a mid-first rounder, no big loss (though another young guy on a team that can afford to play him would be nice). It’s the future prospects of the franchise I’m somewhat salty about while Portland’s beating up on bad teams…but that’s another article.
Time for picks! Let’s go!
(Stats are courtesy of basketball-reference.com and NBA.com)
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Tuesday, Feb. 2: vs. the Milwaukee Bucks, 7:00 PM, CSNNW
The Skinny: The Eastern Conference standings are an interesting sight to see. You have your obvious top two teams in the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Toronto Raptors. You have your obvious two bottom teams in the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers. And the other 11 teams are glomped into their respective groups, groups I call “good,” “meh,” and “bad.”
Milwaukee is at the very bottom of the “bad” category, at 13th in the East. They still have a mathematical chance of making the postseason, but this year at least it appears to be a lost cause.
The Bucks’ center, Greg Monroe, looks to be an Enes Kanter-type: an empty-stats type of big man who doesn’t play any defense, doesn’t make anybody else better, and once he gets the ball, it usually either goes up towards the basket or into the opposing teams’ hands.
Other than their leading scorer Khris Middleton and sixth man Jerryd Bayless (who both shoot 41% from three), no one on the Bucks shoots better than 30% from deep. Not surprisingly, they also suck on offense, standing at 24th in the NBA. That’s behind perennial offensive juggernauts like Detroit, Charlotte, and Memphis. (Yay sarcasm.)
Michael-Carter Williams and Giannis Antetokounmpo are playing pretty good ball, but they haven’t moved the needle enough to help Milwaukee maintain their momentum from last season, though that’s mainly due to the East being so much better and Monroe being a poor fit. MCW is learning from Jason Kidd, who’s been absent for most of the year due to surgery, while the Greek Freak is still very, very young.
The thing that makes me angry where Milwaukee is concerned is the usage of Jabari Parker, the number two pick in the 2014 Draft. At 6-8 and 250, Parker’s a well-built dude in the mold of LeBron James. That’s let the Bucks’ coaching staff try Parker at power forward, where he’s played 80% of his minutes so far this season.
In theory, this is a good idea; Parker’s relative quickness and superior ball handling ability from the 4 allows him to break down slower defenders and get to the rim. There are two issues with this theory, though. The first one is that everybody’s playing quicker big men–and sometimes even wing players–at the 4, so Parker’s advantages from that spot aren’t as pronounced as they would have been five years ago.
The other issue is Parker’s complete lack of range. He sucks from midrange, shooting 32%, but his three-point shooting…wait, he hasn’t even made any! He’s 0-for-6 on the entire year, so he’s not even trying that shot in this year of experimentation and growth.
The most important point of playing someone as small as Parker at the 4 is for shooting purposes, stretching defenses and letting pick-and-rolls have more space to create good shots, either for the men involved in the play or for the men spotting up outside the action. If Parker isn’t even trying to shoot from farther than 18 feet, and defenders are staying in front of him, then what’s the frickin’ point of playing him at power forward?
The Greek Freak is at least trying the shot, but he’s still only 21% from three. It would be ideal if both players could develop a perimeter game that isn’t primarily about driving and slashing, especially considering that Carter-Williams still isn’t much of a shooter and Monroe has no range.
If it weren’t for Khris Middleton being awesome, the Bucks would be among the very worst teams in the league. The transition from bad to playoff team and beyond will have to be fueled by Parker, the Freak, and whether they can make a damn three.
Player To Watch: CJ McCollum. He did a great job defending Kyle Korver in the Atlanta game a couple weeks ago, though his defensive metrics still range from blah to terrible (depending on which site and filter you use). Middleton is a shooter in the Korver mold, so it’ll be interesting to watch whether CJ can both defend Middleton and match/exceed his scoring output.
Prediction: I’ll pick the Blazers to win.
Thursday, Feb. 4: vs. the Toronto Raptors, 7:00 PM, KGW
The Skinny: Toronto’s been as hot as Portland lately, and no I’m not talking about the weather. At 32-16, despite average traditional stats (no higher than 15th in team PPG, RPG, or APG), they’ve established themselves as Cleveland’s primary challenger in the East.
The reasons why the Raptors have been so successful lately are their All-Star duo, point guard Kyle Lowry and wing DeMar DeRozen. If there’s a backcourt better than Lillard/McCollum, it’s these guys.
DeRozen averages 23/4/4 as the lead option. His shooting is not the best, with a 44% FG% and a poor 31% 3PT%, but the secret to his success is getting to the free-throw line. He averages over eight free throws a game and makes them at an 85% clip. His PER is a very good 21.2.
He’s been criticized in the past for being too reliant on free throws; foul calls and the resulting freebies tend to disappear in the postseason as teams get more familiar with an opponent’s tendencies and the refs let things go. DeRozen hasn’t performed well in the playoffs, and the Raptors’ recent postseason flameouts are primarily DeRozen’s fault. DeRozen must develop other methods of scoring for Toronto to finally get over the hump and make it to the second round–and possibly further.
Lowry has been described by me before as a short, fat pit bull that will just FIGHT you. The fat part is no longer correct, as he’s slimmed down a great deal over last summer, but the rest of his game is intact. In fact, he’s gotten better.
Lowry is also a 20-point per game scorer, and though his overall shooting percentage is a mediocre 42%, that’s a product of half his field goal attempts coming from three-point range. He makes 38% from three, which is a good number, and his foul shooting is better than DeRozen’s at 86%. Lowry’s PER is also better, at a great 23; Lowry has more versatility to his game, despite being seven inches shorter than DeRozen.
Behind these two studs on the perimeter, the Raptors have lapped the non-Cleveland part of the field so far. Whether that continues, after Toronto rides the high of hosting the All-Star Game and having its two best players on the Eastern team, remains to be seen.
Player To Watch: Damian Lillard. Lillard vs. Lowry is always damn good fun, and I’m very glad KGW has this game instead of Comcast.
Prediction: In a thriller, Toronto defeats the Blazers.
Saturday, Feb. 6: @ the Houston Rockets, 2:00 PM, CSNNW
The Skinny: Houston as of today is seventh in the West, at 25-25. One and a half games ahead of Portland. So this game is quite important to both teams, and will be the first of two games between these teams in a span of a few days.
After making the Western Conference Finals last season, the Rockets have been a train wreck. Only James Harden achieving his peak level of performance (28 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 7 APG, 25.2 PER) despite shooting at below-average clips has saved this team from total irrelevance.
Where to begin? From Dwight Howard once again being a hot-headed diva, to Kevin McHale getting fired in November, to the Ty Lawson trade failing miserably, to Donatas Montejunas regressing to the point that he got demoted to the D-League, to the likes of Corey Brewer, Jason Terry, and Marcus Thornton having to play significant minutes at times….
I mean, the awfulness abounds. Houston is seventh in offensive rating, but they’ve regressed terribly on defense, with a defensive rating that’s fourth-worst in the NBA. Basically, they’ve become the Trail Blazers.
A team that had legit title aspirations this season becoming like the 2015-16 Trail Blazers can only be described as a massive disappointment.
Player To Watch: Al-Farouq Aminu. The Chief will likely draw the assignment of Harden on defense, since Trevor Ariza and Patrick Beverly are spot-up shooters.
Prediction: Houston defeats the Blazers and creates some separation in the standings.
Last week, the Blazers and I both went 3-0. That won’t happen again this season.
Trail Blazers’ Record: 23-26
Jared’s Picks Record: 24-25
Bro Counter: 12 to go!
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