It's that time again. Time to assign largely-arbitrary numerical ranks to a pre-determined number of teams. Gee, when you put it like that….
1. BYU. So this is kind of awkward. I really don't feel that BYU are the best team in the nation. I feel like they're close — very close. Close enough to be high favourites for an MPSF or national title. In any event, the first three teams in anyone's rankings (or so they should be) are an obvious cut above everyone else in the nation. But if I don't feel the Cougars truly are the best, why am I voting them #1? Because their results demand it. They've been playing like the best team in the nation, and they'll have a chance to prove it beyond any tiny little lingering shadow of a doubt when they face UCLA. Amazingly, the first meeting between the Cougars and Bruins isn't until 29 March — plenty of teams will have already played twice by then. This past week, the Cougars were idle. This week, they host USC and Pepperdine.
2. Loyola. I never thought I'd be the one to say this, but playing in the MIVA makes it a little bit hard to gauge just how good Loyola truly are. Their non-conference play against MPSF teams helps, but when they're playing night-in-night-out against, let's call it like it is, a lesser calibre of competition top-to-bottom, it's hard to make value statements like they're #1 in the land. Obviously, most of the voters in the real polls disagree with me, and that's fine. The real polls always turn into a who-lost-least-recently kind of thing, and in that Loyola do indeed win. As I said in the BYU entry, the first three are a cut above everyone else, and it will be a surprise if the national champions aren't found in this lot. Voting Loyola #2, and for the reasons given, seems to put them in a no-win situation, which….yeah, I guess it does. Even if they were getting #2'd in the real rankings and not by some no-name blogger, I doubt they'd care. This week the Ramblers host Quincy and Lindenwood before heading off on a long road trip. They have only two more regular-season home matches this year.
3. UCLA. Yeah, after that preamble in entries 1 and 2, you knew who #3 would be. The Bruins are actually who I feel are the best team in the country, but their results haven't quite been up to that snuff. Doesn't matter too much. All three of the top teams are very much in the NCAA tournament already, unless all three of them somehow fail to earn auto-qualification. With both matches against BYU still to play, the Bruins still control their own destiny as far as hosting the MPSF tournament. But even if they miss out on hosting, they're still big favourites to win. They're playing the Stanford Cardinal as I type this — a match I would have thought at the beginning of the season would be hugely important, but not so much as it happens. I believe the Bruins will end up asserting themselves over BYU, but it's a close call. This weekend, UCLA will also head to Hawaii.
4. Long Beach State. So here's where it stops being obvious. I've got the 49ers here after their easy win over UC Irvine this past week, inaugurating a long homestand (their next road match isn't until 20 March). They came through their early road conference matches at 5-3; that's very respectable. The 49ers' ongoing schedule is largely favourable, with Irvine and Pepperdine the only real red flags left on the road. It bears pointing out that they beat UCLA at Pauley Pavilion, so I don't think they should have to look too far up at the Bruins. This week the 49ers host the Norcal boys, Stanford and Pacific.
5. Pepperdine. I don't know. I just have a hard time seeing the Waves as national title contenders, even though they're obviously a lot better than I thought they would be coming into the season. Strange how a #5 overall vote constitutes a bit of disrespect. They're not quite as golden as they were earlier in the season, when the AVCA had them at #1. They've handed BYU their only conference defeat of the year, but have suffered three themselves. This week they're on the road, travelling to Riverside to face Cal Baptist before the return match with BYU in Provo.
6. USC. They just dispatched with Hawaii, a team I kinda believe in, with relative ease in their two-fer at the Galen Centre. Most of the season to date for the Trojans had been a give and take, wins and losses of pretty much equal strength, so it's fair to brand them a middling MPSF team. Big improvement over last year. USC are Pepperdine's travel buddies; they too face Cal Baptist and BYU this week.
7. Stanford. I've mentioned all along that I quite like this team, and this week they showed a glimpse of why, defeating UCSB in an absolute pasting. It had to be a relief for the Cardinal themselves, who have, as have all MPSF teams, faced good competition all year, but have just not been able to get over the hump that often. I still think they're underachieving for the season, and that they could be dangerous opponents come the playoffs. The UCSB match, with a wildly uncharacteristic 20.5 total team blocks (in only 3 sets) gives a glimpse of that. The Cardinal have a busy week this week, facing UCLA, Long Beach State, and Cal State Northridge.
8. UC Santa Barbara. Pepperdine were a team that I drastically under-rated coming into the year. UCSB pretty much everyone drastically underrated. You could argue that I still am by voting them #8, but that match against Stanford made me feel like they do not belong above the Cardinal. At least not this week. They're still one of the best defensive teams in the nation, and have an important match against Irvine coming up to cement their MPSF tournament status. Realistically, it's more important to Irvine than it is to the Gauchos, but a win there will still be a big help. UCSB also face UC San Diego, a must-win for all the wrong reasons.
9. Penn State. The Nittany Lions and how much they rule the roost in the EIVA is something of a cliche. And the fact that they just concluded an 11-match homestand may mean their standing is a bit bloated right now. But you can't deny how they dominated over that homestand, losing just three sets in five weeks. They head out on the road now (they have only two more home matches this regular season), first at Princeton and George Mason. They should be fine.
10. UC Irvine. It's hard to imagine that the Anteaters could be on the outside looking in at not just the NCAA tournament, where they're two-time defending champs, but even the MPSF tournament. As of right now, they're in — but only just. It was bound to be a rebuilding year, I suppose. Their next few matches should sort out whether they'll make the playoffs or not, as they face fellow middling teams in UCSB and Hawaii twice (on the island).
ALSO UNDER CONSIDERATION (in alphabetical order): Ball State, Hawaii, Lewis.
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