Should the lack of power potential on the Pittsburgh Pirates roster be cause for concern?
UPDATE (1/23/16): I have updated the table for the ideal Pirates lineup against LHP after some further research. When I put together the lineup, I had Sean Rodriguez playing RF due to Gregory Polanco’s atrocious .183 career batting average against LHP and eight errors in right field in 2015 to Rodriguez’s zero (yes zero) errors in the outfield over his entire career. I had Sean Rodriguez batting third because he has batted .267 over his career in that third spot. I felt it lengthened the lineup and dramatically increased the chances of the top of the order setting the lineup for the 4-5-6 batters. Andrew McCutchen is the best Pirates outfielder since Barry Bonds, and he has been successful, in large part, batting out of the third spot in the lineup. However, I felt putting McCutchen behind Kang and ahead of Morse, with Harrison batting behind them, added protection to hopefully increase run production for a lineup expected to have a minor decrease in power. After several fans were upset that McCutchen would bat anywhere other than third, especially to be replaced by Sean Rodriguez of all people, I did a little more research, specifically regarding 2015 splits alone. I still feel Rodriguez should start the year as a straight platoon with Polanco in RF because the Pirates are going to need every win they can get early on after having finished within no more than three games back of the Cardinals for the division each of the last three years, coupled with the big spending Cubs threatening to compete for the division. Later on in the season, Polanco can and should have an opportunity to buck the trend that he can’t hit LHP, but I don’t feel that that is the best option at the beginning of the season. After seeing Rodriguez batted .327 in the seven spot in 2015, I feel that that is the ideal place for him in 2016 with the protection of Francisco Cervelli to back him up. I hope this clarifies any confusion. My first obligation is to provide quality, coherent analysis on the Pirates to you, the fans. The aim is to be transparent in the reasoning that leads to certain conclusions. Those aims are something every writer at Pirates Breakdown will attest to. I wasn’t as transparent as I should have been. To you, I say sorry. In the future, I will uphold the values of journalism that has made Pirates Breakdown so successful right from the start.
In 2015, the Pittsburgh Pirates hit 140 home runs, which was good enough for 24th in the league, 11th in the National League. That total was a significant drop from 2014 when 156 home runs was good enough for sixth in baseball and third in the NL.
Despite the decline in power in 2015, the Pirates finished 11th in baseball in runs and fourth in the NL. They finished eighth in baseball and fourth in the NL in hits. They also finished 12th in baseball and fifth in the NL in RBIs. The Blue Jays, the team that led the league in home runs in 2015, had just seven players have double-digit home run totals. The Pirates had only five reach that level in 2015, down from nine in 2014. The Blue Jays finished the season with better totals than the Pirates in every major category except triples and stolen bases. Widely considered the best team in baseball for much of last year, the Blue Jays posted a 93-69 record along the way as they captured their first American League East Division title since 1993, but what happened to the team that outperformed the Pirates yet finished five wins behind them? They were eliminated in the ALCS by the World Series champion Royals, as Edinson Volquez won the battle of former Pirates over Jose Bautista and company.
Many Pirates fans still lament the loss of Jose Bautista (“Joey Bats”), the Pirates 20th round pick in the 2000 entry level draft. In 2003, he was selected by the Orioles in the Rule 5 draft, and he became the first player to appear on five major league rosters in one season. In 2004, he returned to the Pirates through a series of moves, as the third baseman had suddenly become essentially undesirable. Bautista was a lot like Pedro Alvarez, right down to a glaring increase in errors at third base.
After losing the starting job to Andy LaRoche, Bautista was traded to the Blue Jays for catcher Robinzon Díaz. Of course, almost every Pirates fan knows what happened next. In 2010, Bautista exploded offensively and rediscovered himself defensively. He has since gone on to hit 243 home runs compared to the 43 he hit with Pittsburgh, turned in six consecutive All-Star seasons, and delighted the baseball world with antics like this:
It’s only reasonable to fear that Pedro Alvarez could repeat the success of Jose Bautista wherever he may end up before teams report for spring training next month. Offseason additions John Jaso, Jake Goebbert, and Jason Rogers join organization incumbents Mike Morse and Josh Bell in the game of “who wants to be the Pirates first baseman?” The unofficial competition to find the winner will be a key focus in spring training. One, or a combination of several of these players will be expected to replace the production of Alvarez. Defensively, each of these options is an upgrade, but offensively, they are each questionable, at best, entering the season.
The Blue Jays were successful because a potent offense carried rather lackluster pitching through much of the season, while the Pirates relied on balance to ensure their success. One of the keys to any successful offense is its ability to string together hits. In most games, it is the manufactured runs, not home runs that make the largest difference. Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have players capable of making the ball leave the park. Between Neil Walker and Alvarez, the Pirates have lost 43 home runs from their 2015 production, and while the number of home runs lost has no bearing on the 2016 season, the loss of the players and the potential they have does.
The rest of the team hit 98 home runs. In 2016, the Steamer system from Fangraphs projects the Pirates will have a mere 124 home runs, which would have only been good enough for 28th in the league in 2015. How can they possibly hope to contend in the division and once again reach the postseason?
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