Consistency will be paramount for the Pirates to succeed in 2016. After posting a team ERA of 3.21, second only to the Cardinals at 2.94, the Pirates lost A.J. Burnett, J.A. Happ, and Charlie Morton and replaced them with Jon Niese, the return of Ryan Vogelsong, and a greater role for Jeff Locke. Steamer projects the starting rotation will have an average ERA of 3.81. In addition to the occasional lucky bounce, the offense will have to compensate for the projected dramatic rise in rotation ERA. Steamer projections are rather unkind to players like Francisco Cervelli, Jung ho Kang, and Chris Stewart being able to repeat their 2015 success in 2016. The Pirates are projected to have a team average of .259, almost equal to their 2015 average, over a nearly impossible 4,785 at-bats. They are also expected to score 580 runs in 2016.
The conservative Steamer projections reflect the projected 83-79 record, dramatic decline in run differential, and alarming rise in runs allowed per game average. They are fair, calculated guesses given all of the questions surrounding their rotation, the front end of the bullpen, and the bench. On December 28, our own Steve Kubitz took a look at the optimal lineups for the Pirates in 2016. I would disagree with him on some aspects, but I attempted to marry the ideal player in each roster spot against either left-handed or right-handed pitchers with the ideal lineup spot for each player in which they had some experience.
The only exception to that effort would be plugging McCutchen in the fifth spot against left-handed pitchers. He had one plate appearance in that spot last year, and he walked. However, I feel his .328 average against left-handed pitchers and surrounding him with batters in their respective best available spots in the lineup around him would help him compensate for that inexperience. The lineups are in the tables below adjusted to reflect my opinion. The last column is a player’s career batting average in that lineup spot. To view Steve’s original tables and corresponding analysis, check out his article here.
[table id=50 /] [table id=51 /]Just like last year, the Pirates are capable of putting out a roster capable of batting for average consistently through the lineup. As a team, they batted .262 over 4,364 at-bats against right-handed pitchers and .250 over 1,267 at-bats against left-handed pitchers in 2015. However, the complete failure of Corey Hart forced undesirable alternative options like Sean Rodriguez and Pedro Alvarez to take all too many at-bats against left-handed pitchers in 2015. The average of the career batting averages against right-handed pitchers by the first eight in the ideal lineup for 2016 is .276, while the average against left-handed pitchers under the same conditions is .288. The average career BABIP for the ideal lineup against right-handed pitchers is .323. The average career BABIP average for the ideal lineup against left-handed pitchers is .338.
In the famous words of Hall of Famer William Keeler, “Keep your eye on the ball and hit ‘em where they ain’t.” As the career numbers reflect, the Pirates are certainly capable of doing exactly that. The key to the offense and the team’s overall chance at returning to the postseason against the strong competition in the NL will lie in the team’s ability to manufacture runs and chain together hits up and down the lineup. A weak link is hard to find looking at these lineups, despite a significant lack of power ability. The Pirates will certainly lose their share of games in 2016. They will also drill their share of home runs. They have to, but the consistency in contact and the ability to get hits when they do make contact will keep pitchers from being able to just pitch around a player or two in the lineup, outside perhaps whomever holds the number eight spot, like in years past.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will be just fine in 2016, even with their reduced power potential. Have no fear, an improved offense will indeed be able to keep fans enthralled all summer long, and, hopefully, well into the fall as well.
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