We now know that the Panthers will be without Aleksander Barkov for 3-4 weeks. Fear not though, the team’s effort on Saturday was very heartening. They shut down one of the hottest teams in the league without their best shutdown forward. Tonight’s conditions are more favorable, however, with the last place in the Central Division Colorado Avalanche rolling into town.
The Numbers
[table id=TS02G09 /] [table id=IS02G09 /] [table id=GM02G09 /]* – Stats are courtesy of War-on-Ice.com, Puckalytics.com and Hockey-Reference.com
Projected Lineups
[table id=PRPF02G09 /] [table id=PRPD02G06 /] [table id=PRPG02G06 /] [table id=PROF02G09 /] [table id=PROD02G09 /] [table id=PROG02G09 /]The Rundown
Saturday was a great, important outing for the Panthers. They faced a difficult challenge in a red hot Dallas Stars squad, and they met the challenge with flying colors. No one would have guessed, prior to game time, that the Panthers would blow out the Stars. They’d definitely not have guessed it after the Stars scored early in the 1st on the power play. Kudos to the Panthers for pulling through.
The only adjustment to tonight’s lineup appears to be the flipping of the 2nd and 3rd lines in designation, per George Richards. This falls in line with their TOI on Saturday night, with Pirri-Trocheck-Howden getting slightly more than Jokinen-Bolland-Smith. The difference between the two lines TOI, however, was not vast, and that’s not surprising given Gerard Gallant’s penchant for consistently rolling lines.
Also, a point I wanted to make that I felt I glossed over Saturday. I’m definitely on board with the line shuffling that comes with Barkov’s injury. Gallant does not shift his lineup a lot, and tends to stick with the same combinations more often than not. Things are a bit in flux with Barkov out, so now there is a necessity to mess with combinations. They say necessity is the mother of invention, this may help to find some player combinations that work well which we have not seen before.
Moving on to the Colorado Avalanche and well, let’s just say they are not good. They are currently dwelling at the bottom of the Central Division, a full six points behind Winnipeg, St. Louis, and Minnesota who are all 5-2-1 immediately ahead of Colorado. They have also dropped their last three games to Los Angeles, Carolina, and Columbus. Yes, the previously winless Columbus Blue Jackets.
The Avalanche sport the worst score-adjusted CF% in the league at 39.4%. Second worst is Calgary at 44.0%. In fact, the Avalanche are so bad at shot generation/suppression that only one player is above 50%, and that is Cody McLeod at 51.0%. Suppression is their biggest weakness. They are the worst team in the league, surrendering a staggering 71.1 shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5v5 play. That’s Buffalo circa last season bad. Heck, their PDO is near 100, so luck has nothing to do with this.
The Avalanche have also seen their goaltending take a major hit. Semyon Varlamov has played at a high level over the last two years, evening being the runner up for the Vezina Trophy in 2013-14. This year his play has crashed. He’s got a .869 save percentage, 3.93 GAA, and a 1-3-1 record. He also has a -0.027 xSV%, and a -3.4 xGS, both of which are among the worst in the league.
If you want to say something nice about the Avalanche, you would probably point out that Nathan MacKinnon is still scoring, and Gabriel Landeskog is still hitting the net. This team is not performing at a high level as a group, but you can’t sleep on any of the young players on this team. They could still fill the net on any given night.
Closing Thoughts
Patrick Roy’s beard makes him look like the kind of guy who goes to the Renaissance Faire in his spare time and says he is The Three Musketeers.
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