Fanthers went to work this morning groggy and ill-content. Our favored Cats kept us up late, and disappointed by relinquishing a 2-1 lead with just 5 seconds left in the 3rd. The Cats survived the 3 on 3 session, but fell in the shootout. Now, with barely any time to blink, we’re back with yet another edition of Late Night Cats, this time in San Jose.
The Numbers
[table id=TS02G13 /] [table id=IS02G13 /] [table id=GM02G13 /]* – Stats are courtesy of War-on-Ice.com, Puckalytics.com and Hockey-Reference.com
Projected Lineups
[table id=PRPF02G12 /] [table id=PRPD02G06 /] [table id=PRPG02G08 /] [table id=PROF02G13 /] [table id=PROD02G13 /] [table id=PROG02G13 /]The Rundown
Last night’s outcome was very disappointing. The Panthers were 5 seconds from their first victory with fewer than three goals. However, leaving a former 50 goal scorer like Corey Perry open on the doorstep tends to be a problem.
Last night’s loss accounts for the third blown third period lead this season. A few games back I noted that the Panthers had eight such defeats all of last season. I also noted that, while games like this happen, the tolerance for it has to be near zero. This cannot keep happening, or the offseason will begin in mid-April once again. So, what might be going wrong with the Panthers?
A huge driving reason could very well be usage of the Panthers defensemen. Kris had a series of tweets that touched on the subject this morning:
https://twitter.com/kristalkshockey/status/662309307497775104
https://twitter.com/kristalkshockey/status/662309983816675332
https://twitter.com/kristalkshockey/status/662311539752501248
The short version is that the Panthers have leaned heavily on the defensive pairing of Erik Gudbranson and Willie Mitchell, and their performance drags down whoever plays with them.
The pair has been lauded early this season for their solid play, but a look some of the under lying numbers above puts that into question. Gudbranson and Mitchell are defensive defensemen, we can all agree on that. Let’s ignore shot generation in this case for the sake of arguement, and focus solely on shot suppression. Even if these guys aren’t knocking the lights out on offense, they must be limiting the opposition’s ability to score, right? Well, not really. The Panthers give up not only more shots, but higher quality shots when these two are on the ice. A truly solid defensive pairing would be stemming the tide, and that’s not happening.
Also Gerard Gallant also voiced a not really negative but not overly complementary opinion of Roberto Luongo’s game last night. I do not see it that way, as Luongo made many timely stops, and the game was ultimately lost on blown defensive coverage down low (Hint: Mitchell and Gudbranson were on the ice). Luongo did have a soft ball for the Ducks first goal, but regardless the game was not lost because of Luongo. Even if you feel it was his fault, he’s still been lights out. Take your pick of statatistical evidence, be it AdjSv%, AdjGSAA/60, or traditional Sv% and GAA, Luongo is near the top everywhere you look. Not how many times he gives the Panthers a save when they need it. He’s not the one who needs to be called out.
The Panthers do have an opponent to tussel with tonight though. They hit the Bay Area in Northern California to play the San Jose Sharks. This is a team that has had an interesting ride over the last year or so, to say the least. They blew a 3-0 series lead to the Los Angeles Kings in the 2014 Playoffs. Then they ambled through a 2014-15 season chock full of weird moments, mostly having to do with Joe Thornton, what with him being stirpped of the captaincy, and later publically calling out general manager Doug Wilson and then head coach Todd McLellan. After missing the playoffs, and having time to sort things out, looks like the Sharks are in a better place this season.
Though they come into tonight with a 6-6-0 record, they sit 3rd in the very competitive Pacific Division. There is not necesarily a lot that stands out as super awesome about the Sharks, but one thing that does is the contributions they are getting from their top players. They’ve got five players with 8 or more points: Joe Pavelski (12), newcomer Joel Ward (11), Joe Thornton (8), Patrick Marleau (8), and Brent Burns (8). Otherwise, the Sharks generally have decent to solid numbers.
One interesting wrinkle will be in net. The Sharks have enjoyed the services of former Los Angeles Kings backup Martin Jones, who has amassed a 6-4-0 record with a pretty good save percentage to go with in (.923, .940 adjusted). However, the Panthers will instead face backup Alex Stalock, who will be making just his second start, and fourth appearance, of the season tonight. Stalock has generally been a good backup, but has gotten off to a rough start this season, having not won a single game and possessinng one of the worst save percentages in the league. However, he does have good history against the Panthers. In fact, he collected his first shutout against the Panthers on January 16, 2014 at BB&T Center.
Closing Thoughts
Deep breaths, deep breaths. Go get some coffee and enjoy this game.
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