The Panthers are back in the great state of Florida, but it will be one more road tilt, in Tampa Bay, before they arrive at home.
The Numbers
[table id=TS02G45 /] [table id=IS02G45 /] [table id=GM02G45 /]* – Stats are courtesy of War-on-Ice.com, Puckalytics.com and Hockey-Reference.com
Projected Lineups
[table id=PF02G43 /] [table id=PD02G43 /] [table id=PG02G33 /] [table id=OF02G45 /] [table id=OD02G45 /] [table id=OG02G45 /]The Hat Trick
On Coming Back to Earth: With the hot streak now decidedly in the past, with two losses in a row, we now witness the Panthers slow regression back to normal. This is not saying the Panthers will now suck, or that they are a bad team. Rather, it is an acknowledgment of what we already knew: the Panthers were not going to win 52 games to end the season. That would have been nice, however, we all know that does not and will not happen in the NHL. Otherwise, the Panthers run would not have been nearly as exciting or historically awesome.
Standing Among Giants: One encouraging tidbit about the other teams that had a long win streak like the Panthers: every team made the playoffs. Further, while some teams did not go far (Boston 2013-14 [12, 2nd round loss], Pittsburgh 2010-11 [12, 1st round loss], Washington 2009-10 [14, 1st round loss]), others did (Colorado 1998-99 [12, Conference Final loss], New Jersey 2000-01 [13, Stanley Cup Final loss], Pittsburgh 2012-13 [15, Conference Final loss]). There is no guarantee of success going forward, but it would appear, historically speaking, the Panthers stand a very good chance of making the playoffs given their current standing.
The Panthers are also in a good position as they have four points on 2nd place Detroit, seven points on Wild Cards Tampa Bay and Montreal, and eight points on just outside the playoff picture New Jersey. There is room for mistakes to be made now, which should allow the Panthers an opportunity to survive an injury trouble they run into (such as the current situation with Aaron Ekblad).
Flaws in the Atlantic Division: Further, the Panthers, in the eyes of this author, are not much more flawed than their division opponents. The Cats are currently 20th in score adjusted CF% at 48.2. This is not a great start, especially when you consider that the four other Atlantic Division teams currently in the playoff picture all post better than the Panthers: Detroit (51.0%, 12th), Boston (50.3%, 13th), Montreal (53.3%, 5th), and Tampa Bay (52.2%, 8th). Getting out paced is generally bad, but one must understand why that is happening to make an informed judgment.
The Panthers obvious flaw is shot generation. They are the third worst team in score-adjusted CF60 (47.0) behind only New Jersey (42.8) and Vancouver (46.9). Its just downright bad, but this is somewhat made up for by the Panthers shot suppression. They are the 11th best in score-adjusted CA60 (50.6), just behind 10th place Chicago (50.5). A few other teams in the division also have decent swings between their shot generation and supression, compared to the league.
For example, the Red Wings are tied with Tampa Bay in shot suppression (7th, 49.9 CA60), but are 17th in shot generation (52.0 CF60). Boston, on the other hand, is 11th in shot generation (54.3), but 18th in shot suppression (53.6). These are shorter swings than the Panthers, and both of these teams end up on the positive side at the end. In comparison to the rest of the league though, this is not the total image of control that Montreal and Tampa Bay have (both teams are Top 10 in both generation and suppression). Likewise, the Panthers are not totally flawed like Ottawa (Bottom 10 in both generation and suppression).
If the Panthers can find a way to get some shooting help at the trade deadline, it will go a long way towards solidifying their playoff spot.
Closing Thoughts
Just a gentle reminder to donate to #CatsForACause. We currently sit at $1,332, just $178 short of 50% to our goal ($3,000). If you’re feeling confident in the Cats tonight, join me in making a donation. My normal pledge is $2 for a win, and $5 for a shutout. Tonight, I’m making it $10 for a win and $20 for a shutout. If you can’t donate that much, that’s fine! You can donate any amount! Just click the hashtag above to reach our fundraising page.
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