Predicting the Sixers 2014-15 Win Total

By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)

Predicting the Sixers 2014-15 Win Total
The Sixers started the 2013-14 season upsetting the Miami Heat on their way to 19 wins. What’s in store for the campaign ahead?

The Sixers finally get back to playing (somewhat) meaningful on-court basketball Monday night in Boston. However, before we start entering deep dives about the progress of Michael Carter-Williams’ shooting, Nerlens Noel’s evolving post game, or Hollis Thompson’s expanding offensive skill set, let’s take one more look at the big picture. Last week, Vegas released its projected win totals for all NBA teams, with the Sixers unsurprisingly occupying the bottom spot by a landslide. Thanks to the unloading of the last remaining relevant veterans midway through last season and during the offseason, a win total of 15.5 for the Sixers means those crafty people in the Nevada desert peg them to win less than the squad that lost a record-tying 26 straight games. So let’s examine whether or not that will be the case, so you can win yourself some money, or just a friendly bar-bet with a friend.

Last year, I correctly predicted the Sixers to go over their season win total, projecting 18 wins for their eventual 19-63 campaign that saw them finish with the league’s second-worst record (curse you, Milwaukee!). As they say, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, so I’ll be going with similar criteria to last year’s analysis. The groups of games I’ll be breaking down will be divided by venue (home/road), quality of opponent (whether those win projections peg the Sixers’ foe as a .500 or better team, or not), and the level of rest for each team (whether or not they’re playing the second-game of a back-to-back). These factors represent fairly universal criteria which go a long way toward figuring out winners on a given night.

Sure, you never really know what you’re going to get, which is part of what makes sports so great for us fans. I mean, no one could have predicted last year’s 3-0 start to the season, including the opening night win against Miami, an overtime win against Houston where James Anderson scored 36 points, or the 4-game winning streak during the Disney on Ice road trip that somehow included a victory against a full-strength Portland team. Still, in the broader sense, we can earn yourselves a better understanding of what should happen, so let’s get started.

Henry Sims Group: Trying Hard But Limited Ceiling

Home – Good Opponent – Both Teams Rested (16)

11/3 HOU, 11/7 CHI, 11/21 PHO, 11/26 BKN, 12/5 OKC, 12/19 CHA, 1/13 ATL, 1/16, NO, 1/21 NYK, 1/23 TOR, 2/9 GSW, 2/27 WAS, 3/11 CHI, 3/27 LAC, 4/8 WAS, 4/15 MIA

Sims was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal on-the-court season for the Sixers last year. Originally a throw-in as part of the Spencer Hawes trade, Sims played well enough to secure a starting role, dropping some 20-point games and double-doubles in the process. However, he’s ultimately seen as possibly a bench big man, and shouldn’t be starting for anyone with true contender aspirations. Despite being projected in the upper tier, many of these opponents aren’t part of the upper echelon group and would be defeatable on home court for a decent team. The Sixers are very far from a decent team, and despite their best efforts, should still fall short in many of these contests.

Verdict: 4 Wins; Running Total: 4-12

Hollis Thompson Group: A Star Among Scrubs

Home – Poor Opponent – Both Teams Rested (6)

11/19 BOS, 12/15 BOS, 1/30 MIN, 2/20 IND, 3/6 UTA, 3/13 SAC

Thompson had a fine first season as an undrafted free agent, leading all rookies in three-point percentage. Still, it remains to be seen how he’ll do when teams are more aware of what he’s able to do as a spot-up shooter. Whether he can make plays off the dribble when opposing defenders charge at him is one of the many questions Thompson has left to answer and why I think the irrational hype train around him is getting carried away. Nevertheless, he projects as a great find for the Sixers and was easily the best of the undrafted players the team cycled through last season. Likewise, the Sixers should be the best among these poor teams at least a couple times on their home court this season. I think Sacramento will be better than people think this season, but look for the Sixers to take one of the Boston contests and one of the three between the Wolves, Pacers, and Jazz.

Verdict: 2 Wins; Running Total: 6-16

Dario Saric Group: 2 Years Away

Home – Good Opponent – Sixers Rested – Opponent b2b (5)

11/24 POR, 11/29 DAL, 12/1 SAS, 1/5 CLE, 3/20 NYK

With this group, the Sixers have home court and the scheduling advantage, but the talent discrepancy is large. Like with their overseas first-round pick Saric, the team is at least two years away from winning these types of games. They could maybe grab a win against the Knicks or pull an upset somewhere else, but I don’t see more than a single win here.

Verdict: 1 Win, Running Total: 7-20

Nerlens Noel Group: Best Potential for Success

Home – Poor Opponent – Sixers Rested – Opponent b2b (5)

11/5 ORL, 1/7 MIL, 1/28 DET, 3/18 DET, 4/13 MIL

Safe to say, Noel has the highest ceiling of any Sixers player set to take the floor at the start of the regular season. With this group, everything possible is working in the Sixers’ favor for victory. I actually think they could go 3-2 among these games, but I made a rule for myself not to give the Sixers a winning record in any of these groups. We’ll say they take one of the two games from each the Bucks and Pistons.

Verdict: 2 Wins. Running Total: 9-23

Ronald Roberts, Jr. Group: Likely to Be Overmatched

Home – Good Opponent –  Sixers b2b – Opponent Rested (5)

11/1 MIA, 2/3 DEN, 2/7 CHA, 3/2 TOR, 3/14 BKN

Other than the friendly confines of the Wells Fargo Center, there isn’t much going for the Sixers in these contests. Roberts, Jr. has great athleticism and performed well during the Sixers championship run in Orlando summer league. Still, at just 6’8″ and with no ability to stretch the floor to speak of, the former St. Joes Hawk may find himself lost among the trees when he’s battling down low against true NBA-level competition.

Verdict: 1 Win. Running Total: 10-27

Chris Johnson Group: Low Risk Flyer

Home – Good Opponent – Both Teams b2b (2)

12/13 MEM, 3/7 ATL

One of the many recent acquisitions made by Sam Hinkie, Johnson has the potential to stick around as one of the better outside shooters on the roster. If it doesn’t work out with him, no harm, no foul for the Sixers. Memphis and Atlanta are good, but not great opponents that the Sixers could potentially take down in the randomness that is both teams on a back-to-back. If they lose one of these games, well, no one really expected the Sixers to win anyway.

Verdict: 1 Win. Running Total: 11-28

Tony Wroten Group: High Chance of Exciting, but Sloppy Play

Home – Poor Opponent – Both Teams b2b (2)

1/10 IND, 3/30 LAL

Wroten is a player with whom you never quite know what you’re going to get: he could go off for a triple-double, or have an atrocious shooting night and commit 5 turnovers. With both teams playing back-to-backs, it’s hard to say what the quality of basketball will be like with these bottom-tier teams in town. The Sixers should be able to grab one win against the Paul George-less Pacers or a Lakers team which should be out of the playoff hunt by late March.

Verdict: 1 Win. Running Total: 12-29

Joel Embiid Group: A Lot of Rest and Not Much Action

Road – Good Opponent – Both Teams Rested (16)

11/9 @TOR, 11/13 @DAL, 11/17 @SAS, 12/10 @ATL, 12/12 @BKN, 12/23 @MIA, 12/26 @POR, 12/30 @GSW, 1/2 @PHO, 1/9 @BKN, 1/19 @WAS, 2/2 @CLE, 3/4 @OKC, 3/29 @CLE, 4/1 @WAS, 4/11 @CHI

It’s entirely likely that Joel Embiid will get the full Nerlens Noel treatment, sitting out most if not all of the entire season as the Sixers ensure he fully recovers from his foot surgery during yet another rebuilding season. As little chance as Embiid has of making an impact on the court this season, the Sixers have as little chacne of coming away with a victory in these games. This group is stacked with title contenders, and on the road, the Sixers will be lucky to pull out a couple wins.

Verdict: 2 Wins; Running Total: 14-43

Michael Carter-Williams Group: Everything Looks Good…Except

Road – Poor Opponent – Both Teams Rested (11)

10/29 @IND, 10/31 @MIL, 12/3 @MIN, 12/21 @ORL, 2/6 @BOS, 2/22 @ORL, 2/25 @MIL, 3/1 @IND, 3/16 @BOS, 3/22 @LAL, 3/24 @SAC

MCW is coming off a Rookie of the Year campaign, and by all accounts, is emerging as a leader of this team even at the tender age of 22 (he turns 23 this Friday, October 10th). All of these things bode well, except for the elephant in the room: can he shoot? Not a good shooter during his collegiate career at Syracuse, Carter-Williams went on to have one of the worst shooting seasons in the NBA a year ago. For as much as the other areas of his game may improve, his ceiling will always be limited if opposing defenses don’t respect his outside shot. This group of opponents is a pretty sad collection of has-beens and never was’s. The Sixers should be able to take a decent amount of these games, except for the fact that they’re on the road.

Verdict: 3 Wins; Running Total 17-51

K.J. McDaniels Group: Betting on Himself

Road – Good Opponent – Sixers Rested – Opponent b2b (2)

1/26 @NO, 4/4 @CHA

McDaniels took less guaranteed money in the short term, with the expectation that his play this season will earn him more in the long run. With the Sixers rested and facing teams on a back-to-back, it’s certainly a spot to earn a road win. Like McDaniels, it will come down to whether the team can earn it.

Verdict: 0 Wins; Running Total 17-53

Keith Bogans Group: May Not Show Up

Road – Good Opponent – Sixers b2b – Opponent Rested (8)

11/14 @HOU, 11/22 @NYK, 1/3 @LAC, 1/14 @TOR, 1/24 @MEM, 2/23 @MIA, 3/25 @DEN, 4/5 @NYK

Brought over as part of the deal with Cleveland to acquire a second-round pick, the veteran Bogans may ask for his release and a chance to catch on with a contender rather than toil away in tanking misery. On the road against quality opponents and facing a scheduling disadvantage, the Sixers may not bother showing up as well. One win against this group seems like the best the team could hope for.

Verdict: 1 Win. Running Total: 18-60

Jerami Grant Group: Mixed Bag of Potential

Road – Poor Opponent – Sixers b2b – Opponent Rested (2)

12/6 @DET, 12/27 @UTA

Grant will be around for a few years on an affordable contract, giving the Sixers plenty of time to see if Grant can extend his range on the offensive end or hold his own defensively against larger opponents. The Pistons and Jazz are both beatable teams, even on the road coming off a back-to-back. Still, that’s a lot working against the Sixers.

Verdict: 0 Wins; Running Total: 18-62

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Group: The Meaningful After-Thought

Road – Good Opponent – Both Teams b2b (1)

1/31 @ATL

Mbah a Moute was seen mainly as a way to match salaries in the Thad Young deal that netted the Sixers a first round pick. However, not only could he be a valuable mentor for fellow Cameroon native Joel Embiid, but it appears Mbah a Moute is in the mix to start at the wing for the Sixers. The Hawks might view this Sixers team coming into Atlanta as an afterthought, but with both teams on a back-to-back, you never know.

Verdict: 0 Wins; Running Total: 18-63

Jason Richardson Group: He’s Still Around?

Road – Poor Opponent – Both Teams b2b (1)

1/17 @DET

Just as many people are surprised Jason Richardson’s tenure with the team hasn’t ended, I’m sure you’re surprised this column has yet to reach its conclusion.

Verdict: 0 Wins.

Final Prediction: 18-64

There you have it; just like last season, I predict the Sixers to win 18 games, once again putting them over the projected total set by Vegas. It’s very hard to lose as many games as the Sixers’ projected win total would indicate, as I believe I avoided any blatant homerism and was actually overly pessimistic in some areas when coming to this conclusion. Just like last season, I think Vegas’ number has as much to do with the public perception of the Sixers as the ‘worst team ever’ as what the oddsmakers actually believe the team’s win total will be. Go over, go Sixers.

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