Last season, stat master Paul Bessire shared with Hog Heaven readers his 2010 projection for the Washington Redskins. Unfortunately for us, he nailed it with a call for a six-win season.
Even Bessire could not have predicted how weird the season unfolded, but his accuracy on the result left me enormously curious about his thoughts for 2011. Get ready for disappointment. Bessire calls for another six-win season for Washington. The ugly details are in the table below.
PredictionMachine.com strives to be the most accurate and trusted source for predicting sports outcomes. The state-of-the-art, Prediction Machine, was built by Bessire, a statistician and veteran sports writer, who offers his in-depth analysis and unique takes through his blog posts and game predictions.
In sports, matchups dictate outcomes. Instead of data mining to attempt to find historical trends that may lend some insight into future games – a common, yet misleading approach for many other predictive models – PredictionMachine.com’s accuracy stems from the Predictalator (a fancy name for the Machine), which plays an upcoming game 50,000 times before it’s actually played.
The Predictalator has already played the 2011 NFL season 50,000 times before it is actually played. The Green Bay Packers repeat as Super Bowl champions, winning it all league-high 13.0% of the time. In the most likely Super Bowl, Green Bay defeats the San Diego Chargers 57.0% of the time and by an average score of 26-23. San Diego, the AFC’s top-seed, wins the Super Bowl 10.5% of the time. The Philadelphia Eagles (10.3%), Pittsburgh Steelers (9.7%) and New England Patriots (9.4%) follow the Packers and Chargers in Super Bowl likelihood.
Here are the Redskins game-by-game projections:
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Washington Redskins Schedule |
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| Week | Opponent | Redskins Score | Opponent Score | Win % |
|
1 |
Giants | 20.6 | 24.1 | 40.3 |
|
2 |
Cardinals | 24.5 | 22.0 | 56.7 |
|
3 |
@ Cowboys | 19.4 | 29.1 | 24.4 |
|
4 |
@ Rams | 21.3 | 24.9 | 40.6 |
|
5 |
Bye | |||
|
6 |
Eagles | 18.5 | 27.6 | 25.7 |
|
7 |
@ Panthers | 18.9 | 18.4 | 51.4 |
|
8 |
@ Bills | 18.9 | 22.8 | 39.3 |
|
9 |
49ers | 24.0 | 20.9 | 58.3 |
|
10 |
@ Dolphins | 16.7 | 22.3 | 33.6 |
|
11 |
Cowboys | 21.9 | 26.2 | 38.8 |
|
12 |
@ Seahawks | 22.5 | 23.5 | 47.4 |
|
13 |
Jets | 17.4 | 22.4 | 35.6 |
|
14 |
Patriots | 20.8 | 29.2 | 27.7 |
|
15 |
@ Giants | 18.6 | 27.5 | 26.5 |
|
16 |
Vikings | 20.3 | 22.4 | 44.2 |
|
17 |
@ Eagles | 16.3 | 30.5 | 13.9 |
| POINTS/GAME | POINTS/GAME | TOTAL WINS | ||
| 20.0 | 24.6 | 6 | ||
Well, I don’t see the Redskins losing to the Bills, nor being swept by their Beast rivals. Washington will upset one of those guys. I like to think this assessment is from my own thoughtful analysis, but it just may be a homer’s wish.
Hog Heaven’s own projection of the season will be up late this week.
Hog Heaven is not compensated for hyping PredictionMachine.com. We just like Paul Bessire’s work and gladly provide a link back to his site in return for allowing us to publish his ‘Skins projection. The results are always fun to look at. Please see Prediction Machine’s links below.
Projected Standings and Playoff Results
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