Memphis downing Cincinnati is the most likely upset of the entire Week 6 slate, according to PredictionMachine.com.
Why should I care about PredictionMachine.com? It’s probably some website 40-year-old Bob who lives in his mother’s basement whipped up to scam naïve sports gamblers. Right?
Well, not quite.
First off, the website uses a unique algorithm that simulates any scheduled game from virtually any sport (college football, NFL, NBA, badminton—okay, just kidding about that one) by calculating a laundry list of stats from quantitative data (QB rating) to qualitative data (coaching ability), then simulating the game 50,000 times to get solid prediction of the game’s outcome.
Secondly, the site’s creator, Paul Bessire, has a Master’s Degree in Quantitative Analysis (dude knows statistics), and his site’s been featured on mainstream sports webpages, including CBSSports.com, FoxSports.com, and in the sometimes “sporty” Huffington Post.
Thirdly, the guy’s a Cincinnati graduate—AAC pride, baby!—but obviously he’s not a homer. Bessire was just disowned by every UC fan that visits our site.
The final line has the Bearcats as slight 3.5 home favorites, so picking Memphis is a smart choice for an avid ATS gambler who needs to pick against public perception somewhere on his plate of games.
But, for us average fans who don’t gamble because we could never pass a true-false test to save our lives, Cincinnati is the safe pick here—put that in your algowhatever and smoke it.
Memphis has looked impressive to start the season, despite its 2-2 record. Throw out last week’s outlier against Ole Miss (pre-Alabama game), which has the No. 4-ranked defense in college football, and the Tigers averaged 498 yards of total offense and 45 points against Austin Peay, UCLA and Middle Tennessee.
Conversely, the much-maligned Bearcats defense is causing their defensive-minded head coach to contemplate replacing the entire unit with a hoard of water boys—Bobby Boucher anyone?
The Cincinnati D, ranked No. 125 in total defense out of 128 FBS teams, is a grand staircase below the Ole Miss unit that held the Tigers to 104 yards. Memphis and QB Paxton Lynch will double dip in the end zone, perhaps quadruple dip, against the Bearcats.
Even with Cincinnati’s defense taking the first three games off and probably a fourth today, you should stick with the Bearcats against the Tigers, outside of the game being in the Queen City, because of one crucial factor: the home team has a Gunner.
This Gunner isn’t shooting bullets, but rest assured he’ll be flying footballs through the air all game long.
UC quarterback Gunner Kiel has exceeded expectations since he took control of the Bearcat offense. In only three games, Kiel has thrown for over 1,000 yards, completed 65 percent of his passes and, even more impressive, has thrown 14 touchdowns against two INTs.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ssvx2vk6Xro]If the former 5-star recruit actually had a defense—literally, if the D actually suited up for games—the Bearcats might have beaten Ohio State for the first time in 117 years. But state championship or not, the Bearcats have an AAC championship right in front of them with a sneaky contender in Memphis trying to derail their season.
The Tigers’ defense is a respectable 43rd nationally in overall performance, but it played its worse against the two best teams on its schedule: 540 yards to UCLA and 426 to Ole Miss.
UCLA quarterback and Heisman contender Brett Hundley passed for 396 yards and three touchdowns against the Memphis secondary. Gunslinger Kiel should at least duplicate Hundley’s performance.
The over/under for the game is 64.5 points. It should be more like 164.5 points with how good these offenses have played thus far combined with the ineptitude of the defenses against quality opponents. This game should be a wild shoot-out with Kiel bombing away at the helpless Memphis secondary to help the Bearcats pull away late.
Bearcats fans: invite Paul Bessire back to your club after the game; we all make mistakes.
Tigers fans: you’ll probably sue PredictionMachine.com for giving you false hope.
As bylaw 2.2.2-2-something rather probably says: if it has prediction in its name it must be true.
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