Last Sunday, the New England Patriots looked a totally different team from the one that got blown out in Kansas City six weeks prior. The 3-2 Patriots came out of the gates with a 14-0 lead against the previously undefeated Cincinnati Bengals en route to a 43-17 win. While the crowd chanted for quarterback Tom Brady, #12 had one of his better games of the season, throwing for 292 yards and two touchdowns. The running game also saw success with 220 yards and an average of nearly five yards per carry.
On defense, it was the return of Revis Island as Darrelle Revis shut down A.J Green and forced a fumble, one of three Bengals’ turnovers. While New England showed some fight in the win at Gillette Stadium Sunday night, New England faces another test this Sunday as they play their second road divisional game of the year against a team in the Buffalo Bills (1:00 PM ET, FOX) that wants to show that they are ready to challenge in the AFC East.
The Bills made some big off-field news this week as the team is now under new ownership. Terry and Kim Pegula were named the new owners of the team on Friday. Sunday afternoon will be the first game for the new ownership group at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
On the field, Doug Marrone’s squad is coming off of a comeback win on the road against the Detroit Lions last week. With Kyle Orton now at starting quarterback instead of last year’s first round pick, E.J Manuel, the team rallied from a 14-3 deficit to win the game on a game-winning 58-yard field goal from Dan Carpenter. The Bills only average 19 points per game despite having Fred Jackson and C.J Spiller in the backfield as well as rookie Sammy Watkins at wide receiver. However, the strength of the team is their defense.
Buffalo is a top five defense thru the first five weeks in points allowed and rushing yards (2nd in the NFL). Former Lions’ coach Jim Schwartz was brought in during the offseason to be the team’s defensive coordinator and the team is having success in terms of getting after the quarterback. The Bills have three players with three or more sacks and are tied with the New York Jets for the most sacks in the NFL (17). Is this the game where the Bills find a way to knock off the Patriots and take over first place in the division?
Here are my three keys to this Sunday’s game in upstate New York:
1. Shutting Down Sammy: In last May’s draft, the Bills made a big splash by trading up to the fourth overall to get Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins. It cost them their first round pick in next year’s daft, but Watkins is proving to be worth the investment up to this point. With Kyle Orton last week, Watkins had seven catches for 87 yards and a touchdown. He is second on the team in receptions (24), two behind running back Fred Jackson. As I mentioned before, Darrelle Revis was shadowing the top receiver this week, so expect Revis to be on Watkins.
However, the strength for Orton at quarterback is utilizing the running backs as receivers. Fred Jackson leads the team in catches and had 6+ catches in each of his last three games. Jackson has also averaged 4.7 yards per carry against the Patriots in 12 meetings.
2. “Dare Us” To Get Some Sacks: With Jim Schwartz as the defensive coordinator in Buffalo, the defense has been the strength of the Bills. Last season, Buffalo was a top ten scoring defense, top five against the pass, and second in the league in sacks. It is no surprise that Buffalo is tied for the league lead in sacks. It is a surprise that it isn’t Mario Williams that leads the squad in that category. The leader is fourth-year defensive tackle Marcell Dareus. Dareus has five sacks on the season, including three against the Lions last week. The Williams pair is still something to watch with Mario having 3.5 sacks and Kyle Williams, who missed last week’s game due to an ankle injury.
This Bills’ pass rush is going to bring another test to a Patriots’ offensive line that showed vast improvement last week against the Bengals as they went with more veterans to protect Brady (with the exception of Bryan Stork). The Bills’ other offseason move was to bring in former Patriot Brandon Spikes to help their rush defense. With Buffalo being second in the league in rush defense, expect balance to be tougher to come by for Brady, Ridley, and the rest of the Patriots’ offense.
3. Will the Running Game “Spill” Over: As for the Bills’ rushing attack, we already talked about Fred Jackson. However, the Bills haven’t seen much production from C.J Spiller in the run game this season. Spiller, who is coming off a sub 1,000 yard rushing season last year, has averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and has not recorded a touchdown on the ground (He does have one receiving). The Bills have leaned more on Fred Jackson this season, but Jackson also had an ankle injury during last week’s game. If Buffalo wants to win this game, they need to keep Brady on the sidelines and control time of possession.
As for New England, they need to keep giving Stevan Ridley the bulk of the carries. Ridley and Shane Vereen had 36 carries last week, with Ridley having 27 carries for 113 yards. New England needs to keep giving him the carries to keep his confidence up considering he hasn’t fumbled once this season. Vereen can be still used as the running back during draw plays and catching passes out of the backfield.
PREDICTION
Even though the Patriots have had a great amount of success against the Bills in recent years, Ralph Wilson Stadium should be loud on Sunday with Buffalo’s surprising start and the energy coming from the new ownership. Kyle Orton did have an interception taken back for a touchdown, but Orton is also good at managing the game, which is why he took over for E.J, Manuel last week. Manuel has turned it over four times this year and 16 times in 14 career games.
The one thing I liked about the Patriots’ offense last week was the use of Timothy Wright as the second tight end. Wright had five catches for 85 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Bengals. Rob Gronkowski and Tim Wright had 11 combined catches in that game. New England needs to continue the two tight end sets to allow their offense to be balanced and create downfield mismatches for the linebackers.
I do think that Brady has a decent performance, but that Bills’ pass rush is going to make things difficult for the Patriots’ offensive line. The Patriots aren’t known for getting after the quarterback, but they need to continue the formula that has worked in four of the first five games, which is to create turnovers. This game will be close and similar to last year’s season opener, but I like New England to squeak out a win on the road.
PATRIOTS 26 BILLS 23
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