It was an ugly win for the New England Patriots (5-2) last Thursday night against the New York Jets, but a win that the team will definitely take it. Despite giving up over 200 rushing yards to the New York Jets, New England managed to win at Gillette Stadium by a score of 27-25 despite not having Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley. As the Patriots get set for a difficult six-game stretch that includes the Bears, Broncos, Colts, Lions, Packers, and Chargers, the team found out on Tuesday night that they will be without their top pass rusher for the next four weeks of the season.
Third-year defensive end Chandler Jones could be out for a month due to a hip injury. Jones leads the team with 4.5 sacks on the season and had a sack in each of the last two games. Now, the team will have to look to players like rookies Zach Moore and Dominique Easley as well as veteran linebacker Rob Ninkovich (four sacks). The Patriots did add some new players to the defense this week by trading for Titans’ linebacker Akeem Ayers and signing former Bills and Seahawks’ defensive end Alan Branch. Despite the Patriots’ underachieving on defense, the team does lead the league in passing yards allowed (208 yards per game). That number will definitely be tested starting this week against the Bears, who have a good quarterback in Jay Cutler. However, the Bears are coming into Foxboro coming off of a rough home loss last week.
The Bears are off to a 3-4 start and are third in the NFC North in Marc Trestman’s third season as head coach. Last week, Chicago fell to 0-3 at home with a 27-14 loss to the Miami Dolphins. The Bears have a ton of weapons on offense when you look at running back Matt Forte, wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey, and tight end Martellus Bennett. Even with those targets, the Bears are 18th in the NFL in points per game. As for Cutler, the quarterback has 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions this season, but has been sacked nine times in his last three games.
As for the defense, Chicago has had a ton of injuries on that side of the ball. Despite injuries to Charles Tillman in the secondary, the Bears are in the middle of the pack in terms of pass defense. However, they could be without rookie cornerback Kyle Fuller this week. The first round pick out of Virginia Tech has a hip injury and a broken hand that could cause him to miss Sunday’s game. This would hurt a Chicago defense that has Tim Jennings at cornerback, but is weak at the safety position.
Here are my three keys to Sunday’s game in Foxboro (1:00 PM ET, FOX):
1. Jumping With Jeffrey: This game is going to be the first of many tests for the Patriots secondary and in particular, Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. Browner made his Patriots’ debut last Thursday against the New York Jets. While all the focus seems to be on Marshall after calling last week’s loss unacceptable, the best Bears’ receiver statistically has been Alshon Jeffrey. The third year receiver out of South Carolina has 33 catches this season, but managed only two catches for nine yards against Miami last week. In the other six games, Jeffrey has had 3+ catches with three games of 70+ yards receiving. While Jeffrey leads the team in yards with 504, the Bears have four receivers with 30 or more catches, including running back Matt Forte. While the Patriots will have their problems stopping the run, Forte leads the team in catches and targets, is second in catches, and has five touchdowns (running or receiving) in his last three games. This game has a lot of points written all over it.
2. Pass Rush Looking To Stay Young: Despite not having Dan Connolly and Bryan Stork last week vs. the Jets, the Patriots’ offensive line was able to keep Tom Brady off the turf, holding the Jets to just one sack. This week, the Pats’ offensive line goes up against a Chicago team that has 19 sacks this season, one more than the Patriots. Seven of those 19 sacks have come from fifth year defensive end Willie Young. Young, who is third on the team in tackles, has three sacks in his last three games. In all three Bears’ wins, Young has recorded at least one sack. This is a career year already for him when you consider he had six career sacks coming into the season. Chicago mainly has three pass rushers with Young, Stephen Paea (four sacks) and Jeremiah Ratliff (3.5) combining for 14.5 out of the 19 sacks.
3. Looking More At LaFell: With the injuries on defense, the Patriots will be looking more to the offense to try to get some more wins. In the last three games, New England is averaging over 35 points per game. New England didn’t run the ball as much on Thursday, but expect that to go up as Jonas Gray gets more snaps. However, Shane Vereen stood out as a running back and pass catching threat Thursday, especially when he had the 49-yard touchdown in the first two minutes of the game last week.
While all the talk has been about Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, I want to focus on free agent acquisition Brandon LaFell. LaFell has become the third target for Brady in this offense. In the last three wins, Lafell has nine catches for 172 yards and two touchdowns. With the Bears needing to focus more on Gronk, look for LaFell to find more open spaces in the middle of the field. On a plus side, it was good as well to see Danny Amendola catch the game winning touchdown against the Jets and make an impact on special teams. Could that be the game that gets Amendola’s season going?
PREDICTION
As I mentioned before, I expect this game to be a high scoring affair. While both teams are near 20 sacks on the season, New England has not been able to stop the run, so expect Forte to have some big plays in this game. When you talk about Tom Brady vs. Jay Cutler, it comes down to the turnover battle.
The Patriots are tied for the best turnover margin in the NFL at +14 while the Bears are tied for 22nd at -1. Keep in mind that Cutler has thrown two interceptions in three of his seven starts this season. As for Brady, he has nine touchdowns to zero interceptions in his last three games. In this battle of good offenses, I think the injuries to the Bears’ secondary are going to be the key in this game. New England usually wins against NFC opponents at home, but this won’t be easy. Patriots get a close win and get set for a huge showdown with the Broncos next week.
PATRIOTS 31 BEARS 27
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