Last week, the New England Patriots (12-3) were able to squeak out a 17-16 win over the New York Jets and got some help to ensure that this game on Sunday means nothing towards their playoff positioning. Thanks to a Denver Broncos loss on Monday night, the Pats will have the number one seed and home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs.
Even though the Patriots look to be the team to beat in the AFC, the offensive line is still a big concern. Tom Brady was sacked four times and intercepted for the third consecutive game. Even with the offensive struggles, it has been the defense that has stepped up, especially in the second half. Jamie Collins had a huge interception in the third quarter last week and New England kept the Jets out of the endzone. While the opponent heading into Foxboro this week hasn’t won there since Gillette Stadium, don’t underestimate the Buffalo Bills (8-7) trying to end their season on a high note.
The Bills lost any chance at the postseason after they lost to the Oakland Raiders last week. However, they have won three of their last five games and are looking for their first nine-win season since 2004. While Kyle Orton threw for three touchdowns last week, the veteran quarterback has thrown two interceptions in three of his last four games and has been sacked ten times over that four-game stretch.
Even though Doug Marrone’s offense doesn’t exactly light up the scoreboard, it’s the defense that is able to frustrate opposing quarterbacks. Buffalo’s D is fifth in points allowed, fourth in yards allowed, and leads the entire NFL in sacks. In the first meeting with the Patriots, they held Brady and company to one touchdown in the first half. Then, New England scored 24 in the second half to pull away to a 37-22 win at Orchard Park.
Here are my three keys to Sunday’s season finale at Foxboro (1:00 PM ET, CBS)
1. Allowing More Amendola: While Rob Gronkowski had the only receiving touchdown last week, the Patriots may have seen another pass catching option emerge. With Julian Edelman missing last week’s game due to a concussion and thigh injury, Danny Amendola had his best game of the season. Amendola had eight catches for 63 yards in the win. With the ground game not getting much last week, it was mainly Gronk, Amendola, and Brandon Lafell who all combined for 21 of Brady’s 23 completions. Considering that Amendola had a prior season-high of 35 receiving yards going into last week, it should be a big confidence boost heading into the postseason for the Rams’ wide receiver.
As for the Bills wide receivers, Sammy Watkins leads the team in touchdowns with six and is 75 yards away from a 1,000 yard season. Don’t sleep on Buffalo’s second leading receiver, Robert Woods. The former USC wide receiver has four touchdowns this season and has caught a pass of 17 or more yards in six of his last seven games. However, neither of these two beat New England in the first matchup. It was tight end Scott Chandler who had six catches for 105 yards in the loss.
2. Mario Making Records: As I mentioned earlier, the one weakness that could derail the Patriots’ run to Glendale is their offensive line. Well, their path to getting better doesn’t get any easy this week going up against a Bills’ team that has recorded 50 sacks this year. 13.5 of those sacks have come from defensive end Mario Williams. If Williams records a sack on Sunday, he will pass his career high of 14 sacks that he had in Houston back in 2007 (second season in the league). Williams got to Brady in Week 6 for one sack and has 1.5 sacks in his last two games.
Williams might have to carry more of the pass rush load this week with Marcell Dareus (10 sacks) being doubtful for this game with a knee injury. As for the Patriots’ pass rush, keep an eye on middle linebacker Don’t’a Hightower, who has recorded a sack in each of the last three games he has played in (six on the season). Hightower had the sack on Geno Smith in the fourth quarter last week that made the Jets try a longer field goal that was ultimately blocked.
3. Running Back Roulette: If New England chooses to give Jimmy Garroppolo more playing time this weekend, will that mean that the Patriots will have more success running the football as opposed to last week? Against the Jets, the Pats ran it 24 times for 85 yards. While Brandon Bolden gave them some clutch runs at the end of the game, it is unknown as to who New England’s number one back will be going into the playoffs.
With Jonas Gray out this Sunday with an ankle injury, as well as, LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen being questionable on the injury report, which back will get the bulk of the snaps this week? Blount missed last week’s game with a shoulder injury while Vereen had six carries for 38 yards. With New England struggling to run the ball and protect the quarterback, the running game remains crucial in order to provide some balance and prevent defenses from not respecting the run game.
PREDICTION
For New England, this football game should only be seen as a win if everyone gets out of the game healthy regardless of the outcome. The Patriots don’t want to see a repeat of when Wes Welker tore his ACL in the final game of the 2010 season vs. the Texans, but that’s the risk that happens when you take the football field. This is a Bills’ team that can pressure the quarterback. The problem for the Bills is that they only average a little over 21 points per game.
Buffalo is like the Patriots in that they have four running backs that are averaging 3.5+ yards per carry. This includes Fred Jackson, who leads the team in receptions as well (65). I expect the Bills to keep this game close in a matchup that could be a springboard to their 2015 campaign. However, Buffalo falls short of their first nine-win season in ten years.
PATRIOTS 26 BILLS 17
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