The New England Patriots (4-2) showed last week that they are still the team to beat in the AFC East. After a rocky first half, the Patriots responded with 24 points in the second half en route to a 37-22 road win over the Buffalo Bills. Tom Brady continues to show that his career is far from over as he threw for 361 yards, four touchdowns (two to Brandon LaFell) and zero interceptions. Tight end Rob Gronkowski looked like the old dominant Gronk when he made seven catches for 94 yards. As for the defense, despite allowing 100+ yards to tight end Scott Chandler, the Pats responded with two fumble recoveries, a Jamie Collins interception, and five sacks (three from Rob Ninkovich). While the team is improving, New England took some big injury hits during the win at Buffalo.
The first big injury is middle linebacker Jerod Mayo. The leader of the defense will miss the rest of the season due to a knee injury. While Don’t’a Hightower might be back in the lineup Thursday night, Mayo is a big loss for New England both on the field and in the locker room as he is one of the team leaders. The offense will be without running back Stevan Ridley for the remainder of the season due to a torn ACL/MCL. Ridley had two 100+ yard rushing games on the season and zero fumbles. New England will now look to players like Brandon Bolden and Jonas Gray to complement Shane Vereen. Even though it is a short week this week, New England will still play a familiar opponent at Gillette Stadium who is off to a horrible start to their season.
After a win in Week 1 against the Raiders, the New York Jets (1-5) have lost five straight games, the longest losing streak the team has had under head coach Rex Ryan. It isn’t all Geno Smith’s fault, but the Jets’ quarterback has not helped. Smith has seven interceptions and five fumbles thru six games this year and has turned it over 35 times in 22 career starts. New York did bring in wide receiver Eric Decker during the offseason, but with Smith’s struggles, the Jets are the worst passing team in the NFL.
As for the defense, the one problem for the Jets is at cornerback, a position that second year general manager John Idzik did not address during the offseason. While Darrelle Revis is now with the Patriots, the Jets are stuck with Phillip Adams and Kyle Wilson at cornerback because last year’s first round pick, Dee Milliner, is out for the season after injuring his achilles last week.
Here are my three keys to Thursday night’s matchup (8:25 PM ET: CBS/NFLN):
1. Amaro About To Breakout?: The Patriots have seen the resurgence of their tight end weapon in Rob Gronkowski. Now, the Jets are trying to find theirs. In the second round of the NFL draft back in May, the Jets took tight end Jace Amaro out of Texas Tech. Amaro had his breakout game last Sunday against the Denver Broncos, catching ten passes for 68 yards and a touchdown. With those ten receptions, Amaro leads the team in receptions with 24, four ahead of Eric Decker. Only four Jets’ receivers have found the endzone this season, but three of the receivers have 20+ catches (Amaro, Decker, and Jeremy Kerley). With the Patriots struggling to cover Scott Chandler last week, could Amaro exploit the Patriots’ secondary this week?
2. Steering Away Sheldon From The Quarterback: When you talk about a Rex Ryan defense, the one word that has to come to mind is pressure. The Jets are tied for second in the NFL in sacks with 19, one behind the Detroit Lions for the league lead. New York has three players with three or more sacks. Muhammad Wilkerson leads the team with four sacks, but the player I want to focus on is Sheldon Richardson. The second year player out of Missouri has 5+ tackles in his last three games and a sack in two of his last three. Richardson is already ½ sack away from tying his total from last year. The Patriots might be thin on the offensive line this week with Dan Connolly and Bryan Stork likely out due to concussions. That being said, New York only had three sacks on Tom Brady in two games last year. If the Jets are going to win this game, they have to bring pressure on Brady, especially with bad weather likely to come to Foxboro.
3. Running In The Rain: As I mentioned before, there is expected to be rain in the forecast Thursday night, which is actually similar to the rain that was in Foxboro for last year’s 13-10 Patriots win in Foxboro. With Geno Smith’s struggles, the Patriots need to make Smith win the football game. They can do that by stopping a Jets’ ground attack that is 12th in the NFL in rushing. New York only ran it 15 times against the Broncos last Sunday for 31 yards. Rex Ryan and offensive coordinator Marty Morhinweg need to focus on the run game. New York brought in Chris Johnson in the offseason to help Chris Ivory. Johnson has only broken 50+ yards once this season while Ivory has done it twice. Both running backs will need 75 yards, at least, if the Jets want to steal a win in Foxboro for the first time since the 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs
As for the Patriots, they are facing a Jets’ run defense that is 8th in the NFL, but has given up 100+ yard rushing games to Branden Oliver and Ronnie Hillman in the last two contests. Shane Vereen could get the bulk of the carries with Ridley out, but he isn’t that power runner that Josh McDaniels’ offense needs. Look for Brandon Bolden to see some action on Thursday. New England still needs balance on offense, but expect to see more of the short-to-intermediate passing game in this matchup.
PREDICTION
While the New York Jets have lost five straight games, three of those losses have been by eight points or fewer. New York is in desperation mode with the coach’s job on the line and the quarterback having a constant battle with turnovers. This Patriots’ team has been growing with confidence each of the last two games, but has been hit with the injury bug, which is never good for a short week.
This is the game that you have to think Darrelle Revis has circled on his calendar and will make at least one big play in this contest against Eric Decker and company. As for the Patriots’ offense, one of the things I liked about Tom Brady last week was that he spread the football out to multiple targets. Brian Tyms is the name to watch as a possible downfield threat as he had a 43-yard touchdown on his only catch last week. The Jets can run the football, but Geno Smith will have at least two turnovers in this game. Plus, I don’t think the Jets’ secondary can keep up with Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. It’s close for a half, but the Patriots make the adjustments and win the game pretty convincingly.
PATRIOTS 30 JETS 13
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