The New England Patriots (8-2) extended their win streak to six games last Sunday night as they demolished the Indianapolis Colts on the road by a final score of 42-20. Even though Tom Brady played an average game, all the talk after the game was about the Patriots’ rushing attack. Jonas Gray, the undrafted rookie out of Notre Dame, had 37 carries for 201 yards and four touchdowns. Rob Gronkowski had another touchdown, making it six touchdowns in the last six games for the Pats’ tight end.
With the win over the Colts, the Patriots have now beaten each of the three teams that lead the other divisions. With six games left in the regular season, New England is in the driver’s seat for home field advantage in the AFC. Starting Sunday, the Pats will play their next two games against the NFC, beginning with a home game against the Detroit Lions, one of the more surprising teams in the NFL this season.
Despite losing 14-6 to the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday, the Lions (7-3) remained tied for the NFC North lead with the Green Bay Packers (who the Patriots play next week) and have the tiebreaker as of right now. The strength of this Lions’ team is their defense. The defense currently is the best in the league in terms of points allowed, yards allowed, and rushing yards allowed per game.
The problem for Detroit is on the offensive side of the ball. Jim Caldwell’s team only averages around 19 points per game, which is 28th in the league. In fact, they haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game since the season opener against the Giants. Detroit has had their injury concerns with Calvin Johnson missing time due to an ankle injury. As for the quarterback, Matthew Stafford (13 touchdowns, 9 interceptions), he has thrown five interceptions and been sacked ten times in his last four games. This is another one of those chances at a statement win for Detroit, but can they keep up with the Patriots if the game gets in a shootout?
Here are my three keys to Sunday’s game in Foxboro (1:00 PM ET, FOX):
1. Defensive Line Is “Suh”per: The Patriots’ offensive line has been great as of late, with Tom Brady only being sacked one time in his last three games. This week, the O-Line will have to take on a difficult challenge that is the Lions’ pass rush. The Lions are tenth in the NFL in sacks with 26 and one of those player on the defensive line is defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Suh has 4.5 sacks on the year, but just one sack in his last three contests. Patriots’ fans should keep in mind throughout the game that when Suh records a sack, the Lions have won all four of those games this season.
The leader on the team in sacks is Ezekiel Ansah. The second year defensive end has 5.5 sacks this season, 2.5 behind his rookie total of eight. He has 4.5 sacks in his last five games. It will be tough for the Patriots to run on this defense despite having Jonas Gray, Shane Vereen, and LeGarette Blount to run the ball. Look for the Patriots to go to the short passing game and try to attack the Lions’ secondary. However, Detroit does have 12 interceptions this year, which is sixth in the NFL.
2. No Pot Of Gold At the End of The Deep Ball: One of the good moves that Detroit made during the offseason was signing wide receiver Golden Tate to be a complement to Calvin Johnson. With Megatron being hurt for part of the year, the wide receiver who was on last year’s Super Bowl champion Seahawks has had to take on a bigger role. Tate has not disappointed as he leads the team in catches (68), yards (950) and tied for the team lead in touchdowns (three). He has 100+ receiving yards in three of his last four games.
With Johnson back in the lineup, it will be interesting to see how New England matches up with Johnson and Tate. Which one does Darrelle Revis cover and which ones does Brandon Browner cover? With Revis and Browner having a solid last couple of games, the Patriots at least know they have the cornerbacks to handle this kind of a matchup.
3. For Whom The Bell Tolls: When going up against the Patriots, a team’s goal has to be to control the clock with the run game. However, the Patriots’ run defense has been much improved since the Chiefs ran all over them Week 4 at Arrowhead Stadium. New England’s defensive line shouldn’t have much trouble against the Lions, who only average about 80 yards per game on the ground. Joique Bell and Reggie Bush are their two primary running backs, but neither player is averaging even four yards per carry.
With Bush expected to be back in the lineup this week after missing last week’s game vs. Arizona with an ankle injury, expected the duo to share carries on Sunday. Bush hasn’t recorded more than 61 yards rushing in any of his seven games this year. As for Bell, he has had 14 or more carries in four of his last five games and is coming off his best performance of the season against Arizona (14 carries, 85 yards).
PREDICTION
On Sunday afternoon, New England will be going for their 14th consecutive win against an opponent from the NFC North. While Detroit has the ability to keep this close with Calvin Johnson and a great defensive line, I’m going with the Patriots in this game. As I mentioned before, New England will most likely look to spread Detroit out and beat that pass rush with the short and intermediate passing game. Brady tried a couple of deep passes against the Colts last week with one of them leading to an interception.
The other factor in this game is field goals. While the weather won’t be as cold as it was earlier in the week, the Lions have had a miserable season kicking field goals. Matt Prater is their kicker now after trying Nate Freese and Alex Henery during the early part of the season. When you look at the stats in term of Detroit being able to make a kick of 40 yards or longer, they are 5-for-16 on those tries this season. Prater has made three of his four tries from 50 yards, but you have to think Stephen Gostkowski and the Patriots have the edge on special teams. Detroit keeps it close, but the Patriots win their seventh in a row heading into an epic showdown next weekend against the Packers.
PATRIOTS 27 LIONS 16
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