Since Brandon Ingram’s workout on Monday, the idea that Ben Simmons is going to be the top pick has actually fizzled down a little. A workout should not be a real deciding factor in drafting one player vs. another player, but the fact that Simmons declined to work out for any NBA team makes the workout that much more important when attempting to finish the scouting report.
Even if Simmons declined some of the drills the Sixers wanted to put him through, a simple shoot-around would have given great insight into the one knock on Simmons that keeps him from being a no-brainer top pick.
In all honesty, working out for a team was only going to hurt him. Simmons is good basketball mind with a lot of dimensions to his game, giving him the potential to develop into a complete player one day. His ceiling has never been the issue for him. It was always his lack of shooting.
Every other negative is pretty close to nitpicking.
Simmons’s inability to shoot the basketball is actually pretty alarming in today’s game. A premium is being put on players who can spread the floor as opposed to any other form of scoring. For a player that seems to have the innate ability to pass well from the perimeter and the post, he actually is not much of a scoring threat outside the paint.
Those who make the argument that he can shoot well and simply doesn’t because he never needed to against college level talent are making stupid excuses. The harshness of my words may be a professional turn-off to some (which is understandable) and that is why numbers prove more than opinions ever could.
Simmons’s shot selection is actually more than enough to prove his need to develop a jump shot on the NBA level.
(courtesy of shotanalytics.com)
It isn’t like Simmons had issues scoring in college (except for one game against NC State). For all intents and purposes, the role he was asked to play was filled to perfection in most instances.
In the shooting chart above, Simmons shows his shot preference typically does not exceed nine feet or so, and even though he may have shot accurately from two mid-range areas on the court, it also shows that he did not choose to shoot from the areas very often (a small sample size).
The reason a player chooses not to take certain shots is either because he is not confident in his ability to successfully make the shot, or he has an opportunity to take a higher percentage shot on the floor. In this case, it is pretty obvious where Simmons felt more comfortable shooting on the court.
According to this shooting chart and statistics provided by basketball-reference.com, Simmons shot a whopping 70-percent when attempting shots around the rim. In comparison, Lebron James converted 60-percent of his shots 0-3 feet from the rim, and around 35-percent of his shots 3-10 feet from the rim in his rookie season.
Even though the shooting game for both players was lacking, James’s was certainly the lesser of the two weaknesses. It can also be assumed that Simmons will not convert 70-percent of his field goal attempts around the basket against NBA caliber defenders as a rookie, and he will not be able to attempt 65-percent of his field goals at or within three feet of the rim.
This past season, Jahlil Okafor attempted only about 40-percent of his shots at the rim (0-3 feet), Greg Monroe attempted about 54-percent of his shots at the rim, and Lebron only attempted about 46-percent of his shots at the rim (a career high for him).
Now here is the good news for my Simmons fans.
In an ideal world, Simmons would develop a consistent jump shot that extends out to the perimeter to complete his offensive game. Sadly, it is beyond optimistic to believe that he will achieve that kind of range at and then develop the capability to hit that shot with consistency when his current range doesn’t extend outside the paint.
Honestly, he does not need to acquire that kind of range to be successful. If Simmons were to extend his range out to a reasonable distance of 17-feet, he could have a solid amount of space and moves to become a weapon inside the key.
For example, for all the unnecessary criticism that 76ers fans throw at DeMar DeRozan, he actually presented more than enough of a shooting threat to defenses to open up driving and passing lanes.
DeRozan converted on 63-percent of his shots at the rim, about 43-percent of his shots taken at 3-10 feet, and 41-percent of his shots taken between 10-16 feet. With the exception of shots converted within three feet of the basket, DeRozan shot more accurately than James, D-Wade, and Kristaps Porzingis from 3-16 feet away from the basket.
The reason DeRozan becomes relevant in my opinion is because I believe Simmons will not be able to extend his jump shot out to 3-point range with accuracy. Derozan has run into that same wall, and has still found a way to be an effective scorer. With Simmons’s ability to handle the ball, combined with his height, weight, and speed, he should surely be a force to be dealt with if he develops real consistency as a shooter.
A more accurate depiction of what Simmons’ shooting potential could reach is Blake Griffin. Griffin converted on about 43-percent of his shots taken from 3-10 feet, and had a 30-percent conversion rate on shots taken from 10-16 feet.
However, Griffin converted on 47-percent of his shots taken from 3-10 feet, and about 36-percent of his shots taken from 10-16 feet just two years later, a very note-worthy improvement. These numbers may not seem overly exciting but Griffin increased his overall shooting percentage by 3-percent in two years, which can make a big difference for Simmons as a scorer and distributor.
At this point, there is only a few days left before the 76ers will be on the clock with the top overall pick, and they need to know what the pick is gonna be. My opinion (which you didn’t ask for) is that Ingram is the better pick. However, it seems that Simmons is going to be the guy, and as a realist, I look forward to seeing this guy become what everyone seems to be so sure he will become.
So here is to hoping that if the 76ers select Simmons, he will improve his shooting stroke so his true potential as an NBA player can be reached.
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