It may seem unimportant given the Indians success this season, but it has been a long held annoyance to many Indians fans and writers on this site that the Indians move prospects at a snail’s pace. We were talking about Francisco Lindor making his debut in September of 2014 and the Indians were so worried about his service time and possible Super 2 status that they kept him down until June. Tyler Naquin was similarly on the fans RADAR long before he finally made his debut in 2016 and had nearly immediate success.
With the exception of a few rare cases like Cody Allen and Jose Ramirez, the Indians have been extremely tentative in both promoting players to the Major Leagues without significant time in AAA and even in promoting them through the lower levels without a full season in each. This wasn’t always the case, however, and although it has been 80 years, I find the difference in treatment in the best pitcher in Indians history, Bob Feller, and someone who I think could near that quality, Triston McKenzie very interesting.
Feller was only 17 when he was signed out of Iowa in 1936 and while he did throw in an exhibition game against St. Louis, he skipped over the minor leagues entirely, joining the bullpen on July 19th, then the rotation on August 23rd.
It isn’t like the Indians had a terrible rotation at the time. Mel Harder was a 22 game winner in 1935 while Willis Hudlin and Oral Hildebrand were strong as well. Johnny Allen came in trade from New York prior to 1936 and won 20 games in 1936. Feller was simply so talented that he forced his way onto the Major League roster and the struggles of those pitchers who had dominated the year before left an opening in the rotation. He was 17 for the entire season, but finished with a 3.34 ERA in 62 innings with 76 strike outs as the start of a Hall of Fame career.
While this could seem an outlier, a once in a franchise player, the Indians have moved quickly with other top prospects. Herb Score pitched just three years in the minors and was awful in his first two. Once he had a break out season in AAA in 1954, he was promoted in 1955 and won the Rookie of the Year. Sam McDowell, a pitcher who could have been better than Feller had he had the mental strength, was signed at 17 as well, played one season at the D level, one year in AAA, then made his Major League debut at the end of that 1961 season. He spent some of each of the next three seasons in the minors, but was always on the Major League roster for the majority of the season. After his 2.70 ERA in 173.1 innings with 177 strike outs in 1964, he never went back and, like Score, was a Major League star by 22.
This brings us, decades later, to McKenzie. He was a first round draft pick in 2015, joining the Indians at 17 just like Feller and McDowell. While all first round picks have extremely his ceilings, he rightly started his rookie season in the Arizona Rookie League as they babied his inning count. He continued to pitch in Instructional League and extended Spring Training (as seen in the picture above) and was so far ahead of all his opponents they rarely made contact. In the 2015 AZL, he struck out 17 in 12 innings and allowed just seven baserunners. While stats aren’t kept in the other two leagues, in games I saw personally he struck out 16 batters in 10.1 innings during extended Spring and his only problems came when his defense failed him.
Baseball has changed immensely in the last 80 years, particularly in how prospects are handled, but even so the Indians are being extremely conservative. After extended Spring, McKenzie had stretched out his arm to the point he was throwing about five innings and probably should have been sent straight to Lake County with a possible move to Lynchburg mid-season. Instead, he began in Mahoning Valley, his second year of rookie ball, and looked like what would happen if Tom Brady went back to play for the University of Michigan.
He posted a 0.55 ERA in nearly 50 innings, striking out 55 before the Indians gave the New York-Penn League a break by promoting him to Lake County. There, he gave up runs for the first time, but still struck out 49 in 34 innings and held a WHIP under 1.00. Having seen him in person, the runs don’t bother me because I’ve seen his pinpoint command and incredible movement and he continued with his high strike out rate and low walk rate at the higher level.
No player should ever be utterly dominant in the minors. It is the perfect sign of someone spending too much time at one level or starting below the level they should have. Players need to be challenged to improve and there has yet to be any evidence that McKenzie has been challenged once. I honestly believe he could have been playing in Advanced A at 17 and is superior to many of the pitchers the Indians had in the upper minor leagues this year.
This is not to say every 17 year old or first round draft pick should be moved so quickly, but McKenzie is a special case. While the White Sox have rarely been a franchise to emulate in recent seasons, this has been one area where they have been extremely progressive. They drafted Chris Sale in 2010 and Carlos Rodon in the first round of 2014 and Sale made his Major League debut that same year (2010) while Rodon made his the next (2015). Sale was incredible in relief in each of his first two seasons, then only became the top left handed pitcher in the American League once he joined the rotation. Rodon didn’t see as great immediate success, but he also didn’t have that training period in the bullpen as he made 23 starts in his rookie season in 2015 and 28 in his last campaign.
This isn’t the perfect answer either, however, as the Sox will lose control of these young players very early in their careers, the exact thing the Indians avoided with Lindor by holding him back. At the same time, the Indians aren’t in dire need of starting pitching for 2017, but if 2016 showed them anything, it’s that you can’t have enough. If they had moved him a little faster, skipping Mahoning Valley and getting him to Lynchburg in 2016, he could start 2017 in AA and be a potential starter for late 2017 or early 2018 (there’s no reason to waste any of his control years in the bullpen like the Sox did with Sale).
Instead, at best he will start 2017 in high A and at worst they may feel he needs more time in Lake County. If he doesn’t at least move up to Akron next year this harms him in three ways. First, he won’t be challenged, which is an extremely important part of development as pitchers need to learn how to pitch in tough situations, with runners on base and against tough hitters. Second, it means extra time before McKenzie will be in the majors and more of his youth would be wasted in games that don’t matter. Third, the Indians minor league system has seemed like a haven for injuries. This is not necessarily a knock on the training staff or their practices and could just seem that way due to the sheer total number of players in the system, but the less time he spends in the minor leagues, the less his chance of serious injury becomes.
A player of this importance to the history of the franchise should be working with the best the Indians have to offer at all times and, while he is not Major League ready yet, he is not going to get there by wasting time in low A ball. McKenzie is the Indians next Feller, Score or McDowell and the sooner he gets to Cleveland, the better it will be for everybody.
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