It’s time for some college football, y’all.
Back in June, Athlon Sports did a projection for the final American Athletic Conference standings of the 2014 season—Cincinnati, the favorite by consensus, is on top and wins the conference outright with a 9-3 (7-1) record, followed by ECU (8-4, 7-1), UCF (8-4, 6-2), and Houston (8-4, 5-3).
How good can Cincinnati be? Why will UCF regress? Can Memphis make a bowl game? Is there something we don’t know about USF? We caught up with the site’s college football editor, Steven Lassan, to grab some of his personal thoughts as we take a closer look at the projections:
Cincinnati is such an easy consensus favorite to win the AAC because of its talent on defensive line, wide receiver and quarterback, not to mention its favorable conference schedule. Still, you have the Bearcats losing three games—two I’m assuming are to Ohio State and Miami (Fla.). Who’s the third?
Steven Lassan: Projecting the wins and losses for all 128 teams at the beginning of the season is very difficult. Over the last few years, we have shifted to more of a big-picture approach when looking at schedules and predictions instead of a strict game-by-game format. We do this largely because there are going to be upsets and injuries that we can’t account for in the preseason. Basically, we look at the schedule, set a favorite for the games and discuss team-by-team what we think the projections should be. We had Cincinnati losing to Miami and Ohio State and thought the Bearcats would trip somewhere along the way in conference action. Considering how tight the top four teams are bunched together, it would not surprise me if Cincinnati lost to East Carolina or Houston, while late-season road trips to Temple or UConn won’t be easy. If I had to pick the conference game I think the Bearcats would lose, I’d take East Carolina. Spread teams gave Cincinnati trouble last season, and the Pirates’ offense could be the best in the league in 2014.
Speaking of that quarterback, Gunner Kiel’s expectations have gone through the roof. A lot of UC’s success is riding on how he performs. If he lives up to his five-star name like he’s supposed to, what can he and the Bearcats accomplish while he’s in school?
SL: If Kiel lives up to the hype, I think it’s very realistic for Cincinnati to be the team from the Group of 5 that earns a spot among college football’s top bowls over the next three seasons. Of course, there has to be more to the Bearcats than just quarterback play, but it’s no secret an elite passer can carry a team. In the American Athletic Conference, Cincinnati should be one of the top programs on an annual basis. This program has won at least 10 games in five out of the last seven seasons, and teams from the American Athletic or Mountain West should have an advantage over the MAC, C-USA or Sun Belt for the top spot. Considering how the playoff is structured, it’s hard to see a team from outside the power conferences reaching the four-team format. However, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Kiel lead Cincinnati to top 25 finishes and appearances in big-time bowl games.
With Braxton Miller out, do you see Cincinnati’s chances in Columbus improving? There’s no way the Bearcats are left out of the College Football Playoff picture if they knock off both Ohio State and Miami and then win out in the AAC, right?
SL: Cincinnati’s odds of winning in Columbus have definitely improved due to Braxton Miller’s injury, but it’s tough to see the Bearcats winning that game. The Buckeyes still have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, including the top defensive line in the nation, and a host of playmakers at the skill positions. New quarterback J.T. Barrett doesn’t have to be Braxton Miller for Ohio State to win 10 games, and with three games until the matchup with Cincinnati, the redshirt freshman will have plenty of time to get comfortable as the No. 1 quarterback.If Cincinnati finishes 12-0 and has wins over Ohio State and Miami, Tommy Tuberville’s team would at least have to be ranked among the top 10-12 teams in the nation. However, I think it’s going to be a tall order for any team outside of the Power 5 leagues to make it into the playoff. The Bearcats’ fate among the playoff standing might be out of their hands to some degree, but what could help this team is the final records for Miami and Ohio State (need both teams to be ranked), and another top 25 team or two from the American Athletic Conference. I also think Cincinnati would need to be impressive in its conference victories, similar to what we saw out of Boise State when it dominated the WAC.
Shane Carden is without doubt the most decorated quarterback in ECU’s school history, and he’s going to have Justin Hardy—one of the most underrated receivers in the nation, in my opinion—back at his disposal. But with questions on the offensive front, can the Pirates be as explosive as they were in 2013?
SL: I don’t think East Carolina will have trouble moving the ball in 2014, but the development of the offensive line could be the difference in whether or not this team finishes No. 1 or No. 4. This unit does have two building blocks at tackle with Ike Harris and Tre Robertson returning, but there’s a lot of uncertainty on the interior. And the concerns up front are magnified with non-conference tilts against South Carolina and Virginia Tech waiting in the first full month of the season. But in terms of conference play, East Carolina won’t matchup against Cincinnati or UCF until after the midway point of the year. That should allow the Pirates’ offensive line time to develop. But if the line struggles, ECU could easily slip to 7-5 in its first year in the AAC.
You said in your AAC preview that UCF’s defense will be even better this season, which really says a lot after it finished 29th nationally in total defense in 2013. You also mentioned the offense will take a “small step back” without Blake Bortles. What’s going to be the deciding factor in whether the Knights repeat as conference champs or fall to 8-4, as you projected?
SL: Despite losing Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson, I think UCF will be just fine on offense. No, the Knights may not score 40 points a week, but it seems coach George O’Leary’s team has options at quarterback, and new running back William Stanback played well in limited action. Also, the receiving corps could be among the nation’s best. With the offense expected to take a step back, UCF needs its defense to help carry this team until the quarterback position stabilizes. The defense should be better in 2014, but the deciding factor in whether or not this team will repeat as conference champs has to be the quarterback spot. How quickly will someone emerge to replace Bortles? I think it’s unrealistic to ask the Knights to repeat last year’s 12-1 mark, especially after going 7-1 in one-score games. Considering its good fortune in close contests and the loss of a first-round quarterback, 9-3 or 8-4 is a realistic record for UCF.
Houston led the nation in turnover margin (+25) and it wasn’t even close, but the Cougars were really lucky last season and had some opportune moments that really shifted game outcomes. They say you don’t get lucky twice. What will UH need to do in order to replicate or improve on last season’s success?
SL: Fans always seem to hate when the lucky theory is tossed around to describe any team, but that’s exactly the case with Houston last year. It’s very difficult (and maybe impossible) to repeat a +25 or even +20 turnover margin. Sure, there’s some truth behind being in the right position on defense and preparing to know what the offense does, but turnovers are mostly about luck. Something else to consider about Houston, despite having the +25 turnover margin, the Cougars only won eight games and went 3-5 in conference play. Expecting a repeat of the turnover margin is simply unrealistic, but Houston should be a better overall team in 2014. Sophomore quarterback John O’Korn is promising, and he will be throwing to a deep group of receivers, including All-America candidate Deontay Greenberry. On defense, this unit ranked ninth in the conference against the run and allowed over 400 yards per game. Slight improvement – which should be expected with eight starters back – should help balance not having a +25 turnover margin. Even if Houston doesn’t make major improvement in the stat or personnel department, there’s not much separating the top four teams in the league. And it certainly helps Louisville is in the ACC, while Blake Bortles is taking snaps with the Jaguars.
You have five AAC teams making bowl games this postseason with six on the outside looking in. Of those five, which are you least confident in to make a bowl game? What about a team that could surprise and make a bowl that wasn’t projected to?
SL: I definitely think USF is headed in the right direction, but perhaps the Bulls are a year away from reaching the postseason. The non-conference schedule doesn’t do coach Willie Taggart’s team any favors, as Maryland, Wisconsin and NC State are potential losses. And USF draws the projected top four teams in the American Athletic, while playing swing games against SMU and Memphis on the road. The Bulls are young on offense, but the future looks bright behind back-to-back standout recruiting classes.I think my surprise bowl team is Memphis. I would not be surprised to see the Tigers make the jump from 3-9 to 6-6 this year. Third-year coach Justin Fuente has made small gains in each of the last two seasons, and 15 starters return from a team that lost four games by a touchdown or less in 2013. Defense is Memphis’ biggest strength, but the offense should take a step forward in sophomore quarterback Paxton Lynch’s second season under center. The Tigers also catch a break in scheduling by not playing UCF or East Carolina.
Do you have a dark horse candidate to win the conference?
SL: It’s hard to find a dark horse candidate to win the American Athletic Conference this year. The top four teams in the league seem to be clear, and there’s a lot of uncertainty in the 5-10 range. If I had to take a longshot though, I’d look at USF. Willie Taggart’s second team at Western Kentucky improved by five wins, and the Bulls showed progress over the final half of 2013. Recruiting rankings aren’t everything, but USF has inked the league’s top recruiting class in back-to-back years. At some point, that talent should translate into more success on the field. USF does catch UCF, East Carolina and Houston at home, which should allow Taggart’s team a chance to play spoiler.
Who is your preseason Coach of the Year?
SL: I’m going to take Justin Fuente from Memphis as my coach of the year. The Tigers aren’t going to challenge for the conference title, but this team could push for six or seven wins in 2014. Memphis was much closer to .500 last season than some may have realized, losing to Louisville by just seven points, UCF by seven, SMU by five and MTSU by two. With 15 starters back, improvement on both sides of the ball is anticipated, especially on offense where the Tigers averaged just 19.5 points per game. Just getting bowl eligible would be a huge boost for Memphis, as this program has recorded five consecutive losing seasons.
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