Quantifying Quarterbacks: Carson Wentz’s Potential Excites, But Will Need Time in the NFL

Quantifying Quarterbacks takes a new turn and looks at an FCS player. Carson Wentz of the North Dakota State Bisons is now out for the season, but not before he could be put under the microscope vs South Dakota.

By: Derrik Klassen

Key:

• ADJ = Adjustment
• DE = Drop w/ effort or defended pass
• DB = Dropped blatantly
• TD = Touchdown
• TO = Turnover (Interception)

Total: 16/28 (57.14%)

Rush Breakdown:

• 4 Man Rush: 20 Times, 6 Pressures (14/20, 4 DE, 2 TD

• 5 Man Rush: 6 Times, 4 Pressures (1/6, 3 DE)
• 6 Man Rush: 1 Time, 1 Pressure (1/1)
• 7 Man Rush: 1 Time, 1 Pressure (0/1)

Passing When Pressured: 6/12 (1 DE)

Play Action: 3/8 (3 DE, 1 TD)

Rollouts:

• Roll to Field: 1/2 (1 DE)
• Roll to Boundary: 0/2 (1 DE)

3rd Downs: 5/10 (2 DE, 1 TD)

Red Zone: 2/2 (1 TD)

Route Break Key:

• S = Screen, Shoot, Swing
• O = Out-breaking
• I = In-breaking
• V = Vertical
• C = Crossing

Target Distribution:

Carson Wentz’s college football career is over. He suffered a broken bone in his wrist versus South Dakota and has now had surgery that will keep him sidelined until the post-season. The injury did not force Wentz off the field during the game, though. Wentz was injured near the end of the first half, but still managed to finish the game. Luckily, Wentz should be back in time for the Senior Bowl, which will give him one last performance for NFL teams to take a look at. Until then, this is Wentz’s final impression.

There is a lot to grab from this performance from Wentz. Above all, it is a wonder that he finished a half of a football game with an injury that was found to be severe enough to end his season. It is key to figure out how much leniency that gives him in regards to ball placement, as he completed just 57.14% of his throws versus South Dakota. Throwing under 60% is a rather pitiful performance for a healthy quarterback, but Wentz was not healthy for 11 of his attempts. Of those 11 attempts, Wentz completed five passes, which is less than half of his attempts. Again, not good.

Wentz is likely going to get some sort of a pass for this, though- and he should. Those 11 attempts will probably get excused by many, being noted as little more than a testament to his toughness (or whatever the fun buzzword is). That is fair though, considering the injury should have ended his season immediately. Everything aside, Wentz completed less than 60% of his throws, and that has to do with more than his wrist.

What is odd is that all of Wentz’s critical situational stats, like passing when pressured, seem to hover around 50%, which at least gives some sort of sense of consistency in him. Consistency is typically nice, but being consistently mediocre, like so many of the awful recycled quarterbacks in the league, does not get a quarterback anywhere. This inconsistency roots in Wentz displaying a lot of normal issues for players who have not started that many games, in that the fewer starts a player has, the higher their peaks tend to be and the lower their lows tend to be.

Wentz’s fellow draft classmate Jacoby Brissett is another example of being high variance due to a relatively career snap count, so Wentz is not alone even in this class in the category of project quarterbacks that need quality reps. To take that further, most of this class would be better off if they were given time to get in quality NFL reps or went back more college reps, again leaving Wentz to not be at much of a disadvantage as a passer who needs quality NFL reps before he can perform.

Wentz does have a handful of traits that put him at a clear advantage, though. Last draft season, there was a lot of buzz around South Alabama’s Brandon Bridge because of his size, speed and arm strength. Wentz provides that same appeal with just as many, if not more, “NFL” worthy throws as Bridge or any other high profile project quarterback in recent years. While Wentz’s level of athleticism and velocity are not quite on par with Bridge’s, Wentz’s flashes of ball placement are some of the most impressive from anyone in the entire class; ball placement is something Bridge did not have much of and is why he has struggled even at the Canadian level. The appeal with Wentz is that if a coach can harness his peak level of play, he could be a star. In doing that, the roots of his inconsistency has to be addressed.

In the case of the South Dakota game, the wrist injury was clearly a valid reason for putting up iffy numbers, but some of Wentz’s other performances have looked somewhat like this before. More often than not, Wentz’s “low” plays come when he is forced off of his first read. This is not to say Wentz is not smart. It is tough to tell whether or not he is. What can be understood is that North Dakota State’s offense appears to be set up to give the quarterback absolute confidence that the route will be open. When the absolute is, in fact, not absolute, Wentz can sometimes make a reckless throw to an alternate receiver, though that too is a common error among perceived project quarterbacks.

The disheartening aspect of Wentz’s ability to read the field is that he does not look any faster on plays in which he completes a throw to a secondary receiver, it just happens that the pass rush did not get to him at the same rate on those particular plays. If Wentz can not simultaneously broaden his tasks and tighten up his foot speed, he may turn into a respectable quarterback. Of course, reality is that only one of those improvements will happen and Wentz will be a borderline starting tier quarterback who gets traded to a team willing to bet on him.

On the other hand, Wentz has shown that he can stay true to a first read that may look covered and throw the receiver open. He has no problem trying to split defenders down the field or place the ball just over defensive backs. This confidence, or maybe calculated ignorance, has lead to some negatives plays from Wentz, but the payoff of deep seam throws for huge gains is well worth the trouble. Unsurprisingly, one of those deep seam throws went for a touchdown versus South Dakota.

Exceedingly more so because of his season ending injury, Carson Wentz is an interesting case in the 2016 class. He is a tall, athletic, strong armed project quarterback with a lot to offer to an established organization, but he has also left a lot of questions unanswered about his ability with the abrupt ending to his college career.

With the plethora of highlight throws that Wentz has made over the past year and a half, Wentz getting healthy and performing well at the Senior Bowl may push him into the second day of the draft for a team who may see their quarterback retire soon, like New Orleans or Dallas. In both places, he should be able to sit for at least one season to adjust to the NFL, digest the vocabulary and get up to speed with the game. Wentz’s success is a long shot, absolutely, but not giving a player with as much arm talent and athleticism as him is a shot, is foolish.