Quantifying Quarterbacks: Cincinnati’s Gunner Kiel Disappoints Early

Last week, the Quantifying Quarterbacks series opened up by analyzing Cardale Jones’ with the lens that he has not yet earned his status as a top quarterback. This week, the series follows a similar path by looking into Gunner Kiel’s messy performance versus Temple.

A matchup against the Temple defense is more intimidating than it sounds, but there is no excuse for how poorly Kiel played.

By: Derrik Klassen

Key:

• ADJ = Adjustment
• DE = Drop w/ effort or defended pass
• DB = Dropped blatantly
• TD = Touchdown
• TO = Turnover (Interception)

Total: 32/57 (56.14%)

Rush Breakdown:

• 3 Man Rush: 16 Times, 2 Pressures

• 4 Man Rush: 26 Times, 2 Pressures

• 5 Man Rush: 12 Times, 6 Pressures
• 6 Man Rush: 2 Times, 1 Pressure

Passing When Pressured: 5/11 (1 DE, 1 DE/TO, 1 TD)

Play Action: 7/10 (1 ADJ)

Rollouts:

• Roll to Field: 1/2
• Roll to Boundary: 0/0

3rd Downs: 7/11 (1 DB, 3 DE)

Red Zone: 3/10 (2 DE, 2 DE/TO, 1 ADJ/TD)

Route Break Key:

• S = Screen, Shoot, Swing
• O = Out-breaking
• I = In-breaking
• V = Vertical
• C = Crossing

Target Distribution:

Throughout the summer scouting period, Gunner Kiel had some fans (myself included, for a bit), but his game against Temple should be enough to silence his supporters for a long time. He was miserable in a number of ways, some of which can not be displayed statistically. His reading of the field was slow, his accuracy was average, at best, and his subpar arm talent put him at a major disadvantage. Visible factors aside, what Kiel showed in the numeric department was largely disappointing.

On the surface, 56.14% of completion is a glaring concern. Forced passes and shaky ball placement plagued Kiel. Kiel’s issues go far beyond his generic percent of completion, though. Kiel threw four interceptions, many of which were a result of him completely missing or disregarding a player in coverage and one of which sealed the game away.

Kiel’s struggles vs Temple has a bit to do with Temple having a brilliant defensive scheme, but a lot of the blame can be given to Kiel and his negative traits. Specifically, Kiel does not have an NFL quality arm. A weak arm can still be very productive at the college level, though the passer must have a quick mind in order for it to work. Kiel does not have the high-speed processing ability to make up for his poor arm talent, rendering him vulnerable to aggressive, disciplined defenses like Temple.

Temple’s defense revolves around creating images for the quarterback pre-snap that will deceive him once the play starts. With a handful of different blitzes and zone coverages (primarily Cover 3), Temple put themselves in position to take advantage of a mentally slow, weak armed quarterback. Two of Kiel’s interceptions came from him not seeing a zone defender and trying to force a throw into that area. If Kiel is getting take advantage of like this at this level, imagining what coaches like Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan would do to him is frightening.

Kiel’s only bright spot in this game was how well he handled third downs. In essence, failing to convert a third down is the equivalent of a turnover, making third down throws very critical to complete. In 11 third down passes, Kiel converted seven times and one of his failed attempts was a drop. Had his receiver not dropped the one attempt, Kiel would have had a conversion rate of 72.72%- a ridiculous rate of conversion.

As well as Kiel handled the stress of third downs, he was a liability in the red zone. He did throw a touchdown, but going 3/10 with two interceptions in the most important area of the field is abysmal. One of those interceptions put the game away as Kiel threw to a contested receiver swarmed by Temple players. Kiel’s deficiencies in this area of the field can also be rooted in his sluggish brain and middling arm. Red zone passing is largely dependent on thinking fast and throwing fast because the defense has less ground to cover. Kiel can do neither of those things and it hindered the Cincinnati offense throughout the game.

Not being able to execute in the red zone, especially when one’s failures are as costly as Kiel’s, is a fatal flaw. Red zone opportunities are not to be wasted, yet Kiel botched a handful of them. Any quarterback that does not have the traits to execute in the red zone does not have the traits to win in the NFL.

To that note, there is little that Kiel showed versus Temple that ratifies him as a draftable prospect. Kiel does not have an NFL caliber arm, he does not process the game quickly enough, his handling of pressure is up and down, his ball placement is nothing to raise an eyebrow over and he does not move his feet nearly as well as the NFL will require of him. Most of why Kiel has zero fluidity and functionality in his feet is that he is not really asked to drop back. Though, plenty of other quarterbacks in college football play in Air Raid systems and still display competent footwork and use of one’s base when throwing, such as Jared Goff. There is no excuse for Kiel to be as lackadaisical with his feet as he is.

The problem is that Kiel does not step into his throws. Instead, he opts to keep his feet planted where they are and attempt the throw with just his arm. For some passers with elite arms, this can work on occasion, but for a weak armed quarterback like Kiel, this sort of throwing style will never breed success. When watching him, Kiel’s throwing style looks as if he is scared of the ball being in his hands.

Stylistically, Kiel is quite reminiscent of former Jaguars superstar first round pick Blaine Gabbert. Kiel does not have quite the same arm or have as much fear in the midst of rushers as Gabbert did, but they are similar in that they both throw like they do not want the ball, they both have faulty internal clocks and they are both somewhat athletic. Comparing anyone to Gabbert may seem extreme, but Kiel’s showing versus Temple exemplified why he may be that disappointing.

There is still a long season ahead for Kiel. He will have plenty of opportunities to redeem himself, but it will be tough to simply erase this game from memory. Kiel looked like anything but an NFL quarterback against Temple. Albeit, Temple has a menacing defense that could very well be argued as the most underrated in the nation. Though, that does not excuse Kiel for his performance. In fact, a touted quarterback prospect ought to be able to attack top level defenses and prove why he can handle NFL defenses, not cower away and throw four interceptions. Kiel will surely have better games this season, but lest this concerning performance be forgotten.