Quantifying Quarterbacks: Don’t Rush to Anoint Cardale Jones

Welcome to the latest and greatest in the department of charting quarterbacks. Simply chunking the field and noting completions-versus-incompletions is not enough. Context is key in all realms of football analysis, but especially so at the quarterback position.

Knowing how often the passer was pressured, the route breaks, play action and rollout tendencies, and the specifics of certain completions/incompletions is critical to understanding how a quarterback truly performed. That is what this series is for.

By: Derrik Klassen

Now, the chart itself is stripped down immensely, leaving the non-basic data to be listed and noted separately from the basic passing chart. As the series progresses, the differences in situations from quarterback to quarterback, or even game to game, will become evident, stressing just how critical these pieces of information are when compared to a typical box score.

Key:

• ADJ = Adjustment
• DE = Drop w/ effort or defended pass
• DB = Dropped blatantly
• TD = Touchdown
• TO = Turnover (Interception)

Total: 8/17 (47.06%)

Rush Breakdown:

• 5 Man Rush: 4 Times, 1 Pressure
• 6 Man Rush: 10 Times, 6 Pressures
• 7 Man Rush: 3 Times, 2 Pressures

Passing When Pressured: 3/9 (1 DB, 1 ADJ/TD, 1 DE/TO, 1 ADJ)

Play Action: 2 Times, 1/2 Passing (1 ADJ, 1 DE/TO)

Rollouts:

• Roll to Field: 5 Times, 2/5 Passing (1 TD, 1 Throwaway)
• Roll to Boundary: 0 Times

3rd Downs: 2/5 Passing (1 DE/TO, 1 DE)

Route Break Key:

• S = Screen, Shoot, Swing
• O = Out-breaking
• I = In-breaking
• V = Vertical
• C = Crossing

Target Distribution:

Cardale Jones somewhat surprisingly won the starting quarterback job this season, at least for the first week. He was exceptional in place of JT Barrett last season, but vs Virginia Tech, Jones solidified why he was the backup quarterback when this all began.

Even at the most basic level, Jones’ chart looks poor. He only threw 9 completions/catchable passes on 17 attempts- equal to 52.94% accuracy. Simply put, that is brutal. Upon further disection, his accuracy was worse than it appears on the surface because 3 of his 9 “good” passes required an adjustment, especially the deep touchdown to Sam Curtis. That quality, or lack thereof, of ball placement is not acceptable in any situation.

Jones’ inaccuracy derived mostly from out-breaking routes, which is more often than not an indicator of arm talent. Throws to the sideline are tougher to make because of the angle, velocity and timing that they require. Too often, Jones fails to get this combination correct and botches the throw.

On the flip side, Jones can be counted on to be on point with in-breaking throws, as he was in both attempts versus Virginia Tech. For whatever reason, Ohio State opted to go with out-breaking routes in favor of in-breaking, forcing Jones to make throws he is less likely to make. Either way, a quarterback should look competent at both types of throws, and Jones only seemed to be so at one. Granted, Jones did face a good deal of pressure throughout the night (pressured on over half of his attempts), though that can not quite justify his play.

From a passing perspective, Frank Beamer’s VT defense was going to pressure Jones and force him to throw with touch. Jones can get quite sloppy under pressure, not to mention he is a bit of a loose cannon to begin with. The clashing of Jones’ skill-set as a passer with Beamer’s aggressive defense lead to Jones having to make rushed decisions and throws from the pocket, many of which ended up hitting the ground.

Now, this is not to say Jones has never faced aggressive defense. He has before, namely when he played against Wisconsin, but Beamer’s defensive backfield is of another tier than that of Jones has ever faced before. With the pressure of having to make quick decisions and turn those rushed decisions into precise throws, Jones faltered and only looked like a shell of what he was, or what people thought he was, during the playoff run last year.

The counterargument to all of this would likely sound something along the lines of, “Well, what would you expect from a quarterback being pressured so often?” To some extent, this has validity. Almost no quarterback is going to perform just as well under pressure as they do on a normal play.

At the same time, good quarterbacks have the ability to sift through the madness, possibly with a pre-snap read, and at least play competently. Once it is established that a passer can win despite being pressured, it is less likely for him to see pressure, as the defense will favor disrupting his passing lane instead of his passing platform. Jones did not display this competency, thus Beamer kept coming at him with heat.

Jones was not horrendous, but the notion that he, in any way, solidified his legitimacy through his week 1 performance is foolish. His passing was subpar, while explosive plays from Ezekiel Elliot and Braxton Miller were the true game-changing factors. In fairness, Jones was certainly a threat with his feet through Ohio State’s marvelous quarterback power and speed option concepts. Nonetheless, Jones’ performance as a passer was underwhelming and should not secure him as the starter for the Buckeyes or for an NFL team in the near future.

There is obviously still plenty of time for Jones to rebound from this peformance and prove that he can be a dominant passer, both at this level and the next. For now, it is safe to assume that Jones has a long way to go until he can be counted on as reliable passer in all situations. Considering his physical prowess, it would be a treat to see Jones develop the way the community is hoping that he will, but projecting this development, based off of what is known now, is unwise.