Quantifying Quarterbacks: Memphis’ Paxton Lynch Earning a Spot In Top QB Discussion

The college football season is moving along and quarterbacks all over the country are altering their draft stock with their play, both good and bad. Unfortunately, good quarterback play is harder to come by than we like to admit. Paxton Lynch is not a profound prospect, but he played well against South Florida and showed a handful of traits that will keep him relevant.

By: Derrik Klassen

Key:

• ADJ = Adjustment
• DE = Drop w/ effort or defended pass
• DB = Dropped blatantly
• TD = Touchdown
• TO = Turnover (Interception)

Total: 21/33 (63.64%)

Rush Breakdown:

• 3 Man Rush: 1 Time, 1 Pressure (1/1)
• 4 Man Rush: 17 Times, 5 Pressures (13/17, 1 ADJ, 1 DE)

• 5 Man Rush: 15 Times, 7 Pressures (6/15, 4 DE, 2 DB, 1 ADJ, 2 TD)

Passing When Pressured: 6/13 (1 DE, 1 DB, 1 ADJ, 1 TD)

Play Action: 9/14 (1 DE, 1 DB, 2 ADJ, 1 TD)

Rollouts:

• Roll to Field: 2/5 (2 DE)
• Roll to Boundary: 0/0

3rd Downs: 3/8 (2 DE)

Red Zone: 1/1 (TD)

Route Break Key:

• S = Screen, Shoot, Swing
• O = Out-breaking
• I = In-breaking
• V = Vertical
• C = Crossing

Target Distribution:

This quarterback class is barren, but Paxton Lynch may be able to give it a bit of life. Lynch has a handful of traits that make him appealing. He looks straight out of NCAA create-a-player. Between his height, frame, arm and adequate athleticism, there is not much more that can be desired of Lynch from a physical standpoint. His nuance, on the other hand, needs work, but he meets the baseline in that area and his physical tools will give him a bit more leeway than others may have.

One thing that can be appreciated about Lynch’s performance vs USF is how well he distributed the ball around. Memphis, to no surprise, lacks a dominant receiver, so Lynch was left to get the ball out to a number of different targets to keep the defense on their toes. The offense’s constant rotation of inside (Y/H roles) receivers also played a part in how often any one player was getting the ball, though it was mostly the lack of a star player. This rotation may have affected more than just the list of names who caught passes, though.

These inside receivers were constantly rotated, sometimes even having running backs split out into those spots. These players were often fresh or facing soft coverage. For the most part, USF was playing a soft defense that was willing to give up cheaper throws to defend the deep throws. It is no coincidence that Lynch completed 8 of his 11 passes (72.73%) between 1 and 10 yards of depth, while only completing 2 of his 7 throws (28.57%) beyond 20 yards.

Heavy doses of play action also opened up the offense for Lynch in a number of ways. For one, the more obvious reason, linebackers were being sucked into the run fake, creating plenty of room over the middle of the field for seam throws and in-breaking routes. Lynch thrived off of play action as he went 9 for 14 passing, one of which completions was one of his two touchdown throws. As much good as play action did for Lynch’s passing performance, it helped him on the ground as well.

After Memphis set the tone that they could get away with play action, that put the USF linebacking corps into a guessing game for the rest of the matchup. This guessing game lead to a lot of easy rushing yards for Lynch though designed runs. Lynch is nothing more than an average athlete, but when the defense is playing unsure, that is all that is needed. Memphis’ option game was giving USF fits. The speed option was not too effective, but the read-option put Lynch in position to succeed. Often times, the read-option look gave the linebackers pause, leaving them to be forced out of the way by Memphis offensive linemen. Lynch’s passing ability fuels what he can do on the ground, while what he does on the ground scares the defense into playing passively.

Giving himself a cushion early on helped Lynch throughout the game. Lynch functions noticeably better without any extra blitzers. That is true of most every quarterback, but not to the extent to which it is true with Lynch. Versus USF, Lynch only completed 6 of his 15 throws when five rushers attacked on a given play. Two of those throws were poor drops that were not Lynch’s fault, but that can, in a sense, be “equalized” by the two throws in which he forced noticeable adjustments from his receivers. Completing just 40% of throws versus five-man rushes hints to Lynch having issues with rushing his process in fear of getting pummelled. The film both confirms and denies that accusation.

Lynch has improved his poise in the midst of pressure, no doubt. The catch is that Lynch was extremely lacking in this department in 2014, so improvement, for him, is more of a movement toward the mean than it is a strong new selling point. He played like a mousetrap last year. At the first sign of any pressure, Lynch snapped and fired. Last season, this tended to lead to ugly interceptions, while these throws have more often turned into throwaways or contested throws in 2015. Lynch proved that he had taken strides in his poise versus USF through a few flash plays in which he bailed the pocket, kept his eyes up and directed his receivers downfield, and made a quality throw. Lynch needs to build upon this newfound brass and incorporate it into his game on a more consistent basis, but for him to have minimized the overly negative plays (interceptions) and made a few outstanding plays is a promising foundation for him to work with for the remainder of the season.

Now, to sound much more nitpicky, Lynch has a mechanical flaw. In an effort to generate more power, Lynch lowers the ball and winds up before he releases, much like Jameis Winston. Winston had more arm talent and nuance to overcome this, but even for him, it caused problems. The elongated release can tip off defenders early, leading to either defensive backs getting an early jump on the ball or defensive linemen being able to quickly get their hands up to swat the ball away. It is also a waste of time because it does not accomplish what it is intended to: create power. Throwing under/over creates a sort of trebuchet motion, whereas the arm should be acting more like a slingshot with a backward/forward motion. There is more to this than would be assumed (I was taken aback as well), but Bruce Feldman did the topic justice in a segment of his book “The QB” that focused on Tom House, a throwing biomechanics expert.

Having to pick apart Lynch’s throwing motion may make it seem as if his performance was so good that I am reaching at straws, though that is not the case. For players like Winston, it really is nitpicking to knock them for their throwing motion because it did not seem to have an effect on his performance, while Lynch has negative plays that can be, to some extent, traced to his motion. Poor throwing motions are hurting other quarterbacks like Kevin Hogan and Blake Bortles, too. To digress, Lynch did play well despite his imperfections.

Lynch has areas of his game that he needs to smoothen out, but the USF game is the best Lynch has ever looked. It may have been a flash in the pan, though, with his other 2015 performances in mind, it is appearing more and more likely that Lynch is slowly developing into a much better football player than he was just a season ago. Then again, there is a lot of football left before Lynch should be anointed. He needs to continue dicing defenses this season to earn his spot near the top of the quarterback class. Based on Lynch’s early 2015 play, seeing him universally ranked near the top of the crop when it is all said and done would not be much of a shock.