Quantifying Quarterbacks, Pre-Season Edition: Deshaun Watson Solidifies His Top Tier Status

Deshaun Watson will be entering his junior season as the crown jewel of the 2016 quarterback class. He has everything that scouts search to the ends of the earth for every year. Size, arm strength, athleticism, poise- the list goes on for miles and miles.

To handle the responsibility, pressure and nuances of the quarterback position the way Watson has (and will again) at his age never ceases to amaze. Watson is the Moses that the NFL Draft community needs to lead them away from the barren quarterback crop that was the 2016 draft class.

By: Derrik Klassen

Games Sampled: Boston College (W), Florida State (W), North Carolina (W)

Key:

• ADJ = Adjustment from receiver
• DE = Drop w/ effort or defended pass
• DB = Dropped blatantly
• TD = Touchdown
• INT = Interception

Total: 74/118 (62.71%)

Watson’s passing chart is about as well-rounded and impressive as they come. Aside from the left-middle area beyond 25 yards, a blemish that can be mostly attributed to his matchup versus Boston College, the Clemson product is aces all across the board. His 35.48% of completion beyond 15 yards could be improved on, but again, Watson’s season-worst performance versus Boston College skews his numbers a tad, and he has more than enough talent to increase his completion in that area by the time the full Quantifying Quarterbacks project is done.

It’s hard to find any trend or theme in Watson’s game based on the passing chart. With most passers, there is some sort of identifiable flaw, specific proficiency or pattern to be keyed on. C.J. Beathard, for example, was exposed for his conservative mentality as a passer in his pre-season preview. That is not the case with Watson. He spread the ball around the field well and executed at every level.

Watson is an immensely talented passer, plain and simple. He can throw deep or to the boundary just as well as he can attack defenses with quick passing and timing. His arm talent jumps off the screen and allows him to hit every window. Watson made a bevy of out-of-this-world throws last season, a handful of which came on the biggest stage of all versus Alabama. When Watson really lets it rip, it is a thing of beauty.

Pass Rush Breakdown:

• 3 Man Rush: 6 Times, 2 Pressures – 2/6 (2 ADJ, 3 DE)

• 4 Man Rush: 69 Times, 11 Pressures – 52/69 (8 ADJ, 4 DB, 4 DE, 3 TD, 1 Throwaway)

• 5 Man Rush: 34 Times, 12 Pressures – 16/34 (3 ADJ, 7 DE, 2 TD, 2 INT, 1 Throwaway)

• 6 Man Rush: 9 Times, 3 Pressures – 4/9 (1 DE, 2 TD, 1 INT)

Passing When Pressured: 11/28 (3 ADJ, 4 DE, 2 TD, 2 INT, 2 Throwaway)

This is the most interesting area of Watson’s Quantifying Quarterbacks stats, as well the area that it is the easiest to criticize Watson. The numbers versus a three man rush are wonky, but there’s a reason for that. Five of Watson’s six attempts versus a three man rush were beyond 15 yards. As if throws down the field were not hard enough, they’re even tougher when the defense is playing heaving pass coverage to shut the quarterback down.

Watson was killer versus four-man rushes. It was the situation in which he completed the most passes, threw for the most touchdowns and threw the least amount of picks. Against five and six man rushes, Watson fell off a bit; his numbers versus pressure were oddly subpar, too. He got more reckless with the ball and was not hitting his targets at the rate he should have been. Every quarterback is going to look worse under pressure, but Watson’s numbers took more of a dip than they should have. To his credit, he played some of the best defenses in the conference (and country, for that matter) in his three charted performances.

Situational Passing:

• Play Action: 13/22 (5 ADJ, 2 DB, 5 DE, 3 TD)

• Rolling Out: 9/13 (1 ADJ, 1 DB, 3 DE, 3 TD)

• 3rd/4th Down: 16/33 (2 ADJ, 7 DE, 4 TD, 2 INT)

• Red Zone: 7/9 (2 DE, 3 TD)

The nature of Clemson’s asked Watson to attack the intermediate and deep areas of the field with most of his play-action attempts. 60% completion on play action, considering what he was responsible for executing, is a fine total for Watson. He was excellent on rollouts, as he is a natural, skilled passer on the move. He understands how to keep his shoulders squared to the target and generate torque even while mobile.

Watson’s play on critical downs is not poor, but it could use some work. It felt as if he relied too much on being a playmaker, as opposed to making sure he could move the chains. He improved his handling of critical downs as the year went on, but he needs to confirm that improvement with better numbers next season.

However, Watson is a red-zone menace. He completed a stunning amount of his throws despite that area of the field being high pressure and tightly compressed. Interceptions were not a worry, either. Watson scored on a third of his charted red zone passing attempts, but did not throw a single interception, nor did any of his throws require an unnecessary adjustment to reel in. Of course, Watson tended to take off and run instead of forcing a pass to a blanketed receiver, which helped decrease his mistakes as a passer. With how smooth of an athlete he is, he had plenty of production on the ground in the red zone, as well. He was unstoppable.

Route Break Key:

• S = Screen, Shoot, Swing

• O = Out-breaking

• I = In-breaking

• V = Vertical

• C = Crossing

Only out-breaking routes give room for pause with Watson. Relative to the difficulty of each type of break, out-breaking routes are where Watson performed worst. Even then, he still completed more than half of his passes and threw fewer interceptions than touchdowns on out-breaking routes. He is not bad at throwing those routes by means; they are just the routes he has the least success with, which is not downplaying Watson much considering he has great success all around.

He is a fiend with in-breaking routes. His timing and velocity are pristine, allowing him to slice through the heart of any defense. Clemson’s offense ran a healthy amount of slants, deep curls and dig routes, and Watson excels at hitting all of those routes. Watson also had vertical success, but that may have been due in part to his receiving corps. Watson is a solid deep passer, no doubt, but he was working with elite skill players in Artavis Scott and Deon Cain, not to mention the other handful of talented Clemson pass catchers. He forced his receivers to make adjustments on a good chunk of his completions, but he trusted his receivers and completed 40% of his vertical routes. Granted, he threw two interceptions on vertical routes, but he doubled that in touchdowns.

Target Distribution

This Clemson offense is stacked! Aside from Charone Peake, who posted solid numbers with Watson, most of the key contributors from last year’s offense will be back for 2016. On top of all the returning skill players who played last season, Mike Williams will be returning from the season ending neck injury that sidelined him last year. Clemson’s offense is going to be the best in the nation, and Watson is going to be the front man.

But to digress, Watson definitely had a favorite target last season. Artavis Scott caught more than a quarter of Watson’s charted completions. Watson trusted him on any down, in any situation and on any route. Scott is the type of player who is always open and Watson took full advantage of that. Williams returning to the offense will disrupt who gets how many touches, but Scott will be the one receiver exempt from taking a hit due to Williams’ return.

Other than with Hunter Renfrow, who struggled early on in the season and eventually turned it on near the end of the year, Watson posted highly impressive numbers with all of his receivers. He spread the love around and let as many of them get a taste of pay dirt as he could. He favored Scott, but knew when to look elsewhere and feed somebody else the ball.

Deshaun Watson left little to be desired after last season. He improved on every area of possible concern as the year went on. Many believed he did not see the field too well and that he held the ball too long, but as the year went on, he became a more efficient passer and only held the ball when that was the best decision at hand. Clemson saw an undefeated regular season, ACC Championship and a National Championship appearance because of his ability as a quarterback, both as a playmaker and a distributor. He is physically gifted and is far more skilled than someone his age should be. Deshaun Watson is the future for one lucky NFL franchise that will get to draft him next spring.