Quantifying Quarterbacks, Pre-Season Edition: Still Waiting on Josh Dobbs’s Step Forward

Josh Dobbs looks to be another tally on the “players who didn’t take their expected step forward” wall. His sophomore season in 2014 painted Dobbs as a brilliant passer with an adequate arm and the mobility to keep a defense on their toes.

It was clear that he needed some fine tuning, but there appeared to be something there with him. He was talked about all throughout the following summer as a quarterback to keep an eye on moving forward. I was apart of that crowd, admittedly. Unfortunately, Dobbs’ development has yet to come to fruition.

Games sampled: Arkansas (L), Alabama (L), South Carolina (W)

Key:

• ADJ = Adjustment from receiver
• DE = Drop w/ effort or defended pass
• DB = Dropped blatantly
• TD = Touchdown
• INT = Interception (also counted as a DE outside of passing chart)

Total: 53/92 (57.61%)

Dobbs’ chart is widely representative of his play style and ceiling as a quarterback. He is a low bandwidth quarterback. Very few of his throws will surprise you, for better or for worse. As could have been expected, 23/92 (25%) of his throws were thrown behind the line of scrimmage, making up a large chunk of his attempts. One of his only three touchdowns was even produced from a pass behind the line of scrimmage. He was asked to do more facilitating than creating last season, whereas he seemed to have a longer leash in 2014. In fairness, one of Dobbs’ top two receivers heading into the year, Pig Howard, was dismissed from the team early on and the other, Marquez North, battled with injuries throughout the season.

The high volume of screen throws are not the biggest wart on Dobbs’ charts, though. In 92 attempts, Dobbs did not have a single boundary throw in the 6-10 yard range and only had four in the 11-15 yard range. There are only two possibilities for why Dobbs has so few throws in that range. One possibility is that the coaching staff does not trust him and/or the receivers to be able to make those routes/throws work consistently for them. If most of the fear lies in Dobbs’ ability, that is more than likely a testament to his velocity and ability to throw on a rope to the boundary, which would certainly be a problem in the league. The other scenario is that Dobbs doesn’t trust himself to complete those throws when they are there. A lack in confidence is simply inexcusable for NFL hopefuls. Regardless of why Dobbs’ has intermediate boundary issues, it is something to monitor moving forward and see if he improves in that area in 2016.

Pass Rush Breakdown:

• 3 Man Rush: 1 Time, 0 Pressures – 1/1
• 4 Man Rush: 59 Times, 8 Pressures – 37/59 (5 ADJ, 3 DB, 8 DE, 2 TD)
• 5 Man Rush: 32 Times, 13 Pressures – 17/32 (1 ADJ, 1 DB, 6 DE, 1 TD, 1 INT, 4 throwaways)

Passing When Pressured: 9/21 (2 ADJ, 6 DE, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 throwaways)

Posting a 33% completion percentage versus pressure is more than worrisome. It is rare for a quarterback to put up great numbers in the face of pressure, but it’s ugly for a quarterback to complete just a third of his passes without there being any blatant drops. This is another testament to Dobbs’ ceiling as a quarterback. He is a mobile threat and can create some yardage, but he does not have the mental focus to scan the field proficiently under pressure and make a throw. Salvaging plays is not really apart of his arsenal.

Situational Passing

• Play Action: 23/34 (1 DB, 2 DE, 1 TD, 2 throwaways)

• Rolling Out: 7/11 (1 DB, 1 DE, 1 TD, 2 throwaways)

• 3rd/4th Down: 18/31 (4 ADJ, 5 DE, 2 TD)

• Red Zone: 4/8 (1 DE, 2 TD)

Dobbs saves himself a little bit with his performance in these situations. On play action and on rollouts, he proved that he could take what the defense gave to him and keep the ball safe. More importantly, his work on critical downs is impressive. He completed nearly 60% of his throws on 3rd and 4th down. He may not be able to save plays when pressure is bearing down on him, but he does appear to have a good sense of the situation at hand and how to keep the chains moving. His red zone work is nothing out of the ordinary. His completion rate could be better, but there is a small sample here and he still came away with two touchdowns to no interceptions.

Route Break Key:

• S = Screen, Shoot, Swing

• O = Out-breaking

• I = In-breaking

• V = Vertical

• C = Crossing

Dobbs missing five of his screen/shoot/swing throws is odd, especially since none of them happened versus pressure. He doesn’t show a clear proficiency in any one area (aside from crossing routes, but the sample is so small). Down the field, Dobbs didn’t show the ability to make many dynamic throws to open up a game and scare defenses. If anything, it would be best for Dobbs to complete more passes over the middle of the field, being as that is the area he looks most comfortable with on film.

Target Distribution

Von Pearson being Dobbs’ most efficient target is no surprise. Dobbs’ best work is on short timing routes and Pearson was Tennessee’s best receiver for that job, specifically with slant routes. The completion rate when throwing to Alvin Kamara is as high as it is because nine of those 15 targets were screen/shoot/swing passes. Dobbs was still hitting his spots, but most of those throws were the easiest throws Dobbs made all game. Josh Malone and Josh Smith were the receivers Dobbs tended to target more went down the field, so naturally the completion rate for their targets are lower than, say, Pearson’s.

Josh Dobbs has left a lot of room for improvement in 2016. Based on his junior season, he is a low ceiling passer who has some ability as a runner. The tools are there, but he has yet to play with the aggression and swagger of a top-level quarterback prospect. Dobbs, for now, has shown that he can be a serviceable backup who will not poke any more holes in an already sinking ship. With a receiving corps that should be fully intact heading into the season, Dobbs has a final chance to prove that he can be a creator and make difficult throws. Though, without seeing any progression last year, assuming he will take a major step forward next year would be misguided.