The end of the year is upon us, making it time to ease into a more serious state of evaluation. Most of the relevant quarterbacks in the 2016 class were covered at least once throughout the year using one game samples, but now the top dogs must be separated from the pack. The remaining weeks of Quantifying Quarterbacks will review the top quarterback prospects in order of my (loose) rankings- starting with Paxton Lynch.
The preseason worries of there not being a good quarterback prospect for the 2015 class have been silenced by Paxton Lynch. Prior to this year, Lynch was a roller coaster of a player. He would follow up miraculous throws with freak-out plays that lead to interceptions. The talent was evident, but he was far from complete. Fast forward to 2015 and Lynch has evolved into a near flawless prospect, in a certain context.
By: Derrik Klassen
From Oct. 8th: Memphis Paxton Lynch Earning A Spot In Top QB Discussion
Lynch is not flawless in the sense that he is an Andrew Luck level prospect. Rather, it is tough to poke holes in Lynch’s game, even if most of his traits are not outwardly special either. If anything, Lynch still has his battles with interior pressure and sees the occasional ghost in the pocket, but every other trait is, at the very least, baseline for NFL success. In many ways, Lynch is not that exciting of a player because so much of what he does is well processed and natural, on top of the fact that he seldom has negative plays that make his positive ones stand out. Lynch is instead winning by continually attacking the marginal advantages and creating opportunity for his players- and not just his skill players.
Memphis’ offensive line is a shambled mess. Lynch mitigates their shortcomings with his awareness, nuance and daunting frame. He understands where the open areas of the pocket are and how to flow to them without diverting his attention from his receivers operating down the field. He can feel when he needs to bail out, yet he is more than willing to plant his feet in the ground and deliver a throw as a defender barrels into his chest. Lynch has a newfound gift for nullifying pressure.
But of course, some rushers are going to get to him no matter what he does, and he can still keep plays alive. He is not all too fast, but his quickness is adequate for his size and his 6’7”, 245-or-so pound build allows him to bounce off defenders like the Michelin tire man. Lynch does see a ghost from time to time, but it can be well overlooked because of the number of other plays in which he mitigates pressure instead of creating it.
Though, dancing around pressure doesn’t do anyone any good if the ensuing throw is not completed. Lynch completes these broken plays more often than most every other quarterback prospect in the past few years. More important than anything else, Lynch remains calm and confident as he is fleeing from pressure and setting up to make a throw, making the throw itself that much easier. This is what keeps Lynch’s release consistent even in the midst of chaos. In turn, a consistent release point breeds accuracy because, like any other facet of the game, repeatable and sustainable processes breed better results. Lynch’s soothed movement, as well as his natural arm talent, help him whip defenses that seemingly have him beat on a given play.
Said arm talent that Lynch possesses is not quite the same arm talent that is often touted for guys like Cam Newton or Matthew Stafford, though. Part of that is because “arm talent” is a misconstrued term, but that is for another day. Lynch’s velocity is more than adequate, though to expect him to needle in a throw solely based on zip is foolish. The thing is, Lynch has found his own way to thread the needle through touch, trajectory and velocity manipulation.
Touch is a natural gift, more than anything. In some ways, it is similar to a point guard in the NBA, sort of similar to how Steph Curry can magically sink shots from any platform. Lynch has that trait as a passer. On top of that, Lynch understands that passing is a lot of geometry, which is, in turn, physics because physics is geometry with moving pieces. He knows that some throws require more of a bend in the arc path, whereas other throws need to be gunned in line a bullet. This aspect of nuance is often overlooked, but when you go through all the best quarterbacks in the league and juxtapose them with lesser ones, the lesser ones do not do near as much to manipulate physics as the top tier guys do.
To some extent, that manipulation can be credited to mental capacity. Smarter quarterbacks have more of a grasp on the concept that not every throw is the same, and that is applied to areas beyond velocity and trajectory altering. Lynch is not evidently brilliant, per say. A portion of the issue is that the system he operates, which is much like a watered down, spread version of Gary Kubiak’s offense, does not give him much power. Often times, plays are designed to go to one specific receiver, sans the rollout plays Memphis tends to call, and even some of those are meant to go directly to the flats. Then again, Lynch operates this system with precision, rarely passing over open receivers or throwing recklessly into coverage. This is what has allowed him to keep costly mistakes down to a minimum. Lynch has only thrown 3 interceptions in 11 games (thus far) in 2015 and will surely end the year with fewer than 9 interceptions, the total he gave up last season.
The underlying themes to Lynch are these: he has gotten better in nearly every aspect of his game from the previous season and now not a single one of his traits can be blown up as a detrimental flaw. Lynch is already not going to cost his teams games and, as his development heading into 2015 would suggest, he is only going to better himself as he moves forward. There is not a direct comparison I would make for Lynch, though he does fit in the Ryan Tannehill-Marcus Mariota-Alex Smith archetype of quarterbacking that is centered around marginal advantages and mobility. Though he separates himself from them in that he has a more natural sense of the pocket and a more aggressive demeanor as a passer, even if he is not aggressive enough to be looked at as a swing-for-the-fences type like Jameis Winston.
As the process moves along, Lynch is going to pick up more and more steam until he is solidified as the best passer in the class and earns himself a phone call on the first day of the NFL Draft. Just how high he will go is foggy because the draft order is yet to be determined, but it is tough to see a team not nab him in the top ten, especially considering his is more than likely one of just two viable day-one starting quarterbacks in the class.
Interesting Data (of 309 snap sample collected thus far):
- On 309 attempts, just 23 throws have required an adjustment by the receiver (7.44)
- 76 of Lynch’s 309 attempts were screen throws, which is rather high. (24.60%)
- Lynch is 50/77 (64.94% of completion) in the fourth quarter and overtime periods, compared to 161/232 (69.40% of completion) in the first three quarters of play.
- When pressured without operating a play action fake, Lynch has thrown a middling 22/43 (51.16% of completion), including three throwaways.
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