Jered Weaver somehow had one of the worst season of his career and gave us hope for his future all at the same time. How did he do that? No, seriously, I’m asking you how he did that.
Is everyone aware that Jered Weaver isn’t an ace anymore?
That’s easy: no. I wrote about how he isn’t an ace anymore earlier in the year and didn’t exactly receive a lot of warm responses. But then that sonuvabitch had to go and suddenly start throwing in the low-90’s again almost immediately after I wrote that.
Yes, he still finished the year with a decidedly average 3.59 ERA and 4.19 FIP, one of the highest walk rates of his career and the most homers allowed of his career, but his strong performance down the stretch thanks to his miraculous recovery of velocity lulled everyone back into think he was awesome again. Well, that and all the troglodytes that actually think that his 18 wins means something.
Yeah, but where the hell did that velocity come from?
He says that he found the extra three miles per hour from changing his arm slot a bit after his shoulder and arm started feeling the best they have in years. He’s alluded to doing this in each of the last two years, but this is really the first time that we’ve seen sustained improvement in velocity.
Here’s the thing though, I did the Pitch f/x comparisons after a few starts worth of this and his release point was almost exactly the same, which blows the arm slot theory out of the water. It also never really passed the smell test that 170 innings into the season that his arm was feeling better than ever. That’s just not how pitching arms work.
My theory, which I can’t prove even a little bit, is that Jered has been pacing himself. I think his arm still has as much discomfort as it always has the last few years, but with the division title within reach and the playoffs approaching, Weave made the choice to not worry about the pain and take the governor off. For me, the smoking gun that lends credence to this theory is that in his last start of the season, which was a meaningless game, his velocity mysteriously dipped back down. Then the ALDS rolled around and his velocity was back. It must be magic! Or effort. Yeah, probably effort.
So this means Weaver can be an ace next year if he is willing to push through the pain, right?
Probably not. Making three starts through shoulder discomfort is one thing. Making thirty starts is quite another. That strikes me as a recipe for him blowing his shoulder out and leaving the Halos on the hook for a $20 million anchor in 2016. They’ve already got enough bad contracts to deal with.
However, if I am wrong and Weaver was telling the truth about his arm feeling better, he could possibly return to something resembling his prime self. With a full offseason to continue recovering, he should be throwing 97 MPH by spring training, right? OK, maybe that’s taking it a bit far, but it would bode well for his prospects in 2015.
Does this mean I will take back my “ace no more” post?
Nope, but I reserve the right to hit the “delete” button and never pretend it never happened.
Final Answer
Not to make this whole thing about his velocity because it isn’t the end all, be all of pitching, but there was a pretty clear difference in his results when he amped up the MPHs. That at least gives us some hope that Weaver can reverse or at least stall his decline. Nobody likes to talk about it, but he was quickly heading towards being more part of the problem with the Angels rotation rather than part of the solution.
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