Joe Smith was the reliever with the pedestrian name but the excellent numbers in 2014. Despite a very impressive year, Smith still appears to be flying under the radar. But maybe that is for the best since it seems like he might have been pitching well over his head.
Should the Angels have signed Smith for so much money (3 years, $15.8 million)?
The general sabermetrics stance on relievers is that they are fungible assets and therefore not worth much in the way of money. This is a viewpoint that Jerry Dipoto, a former reliever himself, seemed to fully subscribe to the first two years of his tenure. After two years of his fungible bullpen assets taking the “fun” out of fungible and putting the “ass” in assets, he apparently changed his mind and gave that substantial deal to Smith.
It wasn’t a backbreaker of a contract, but the length and money involved represented a huge departure for the GM as Smith wasn’t even what one would call an elite pitcher. His walk and strikeout rates were fairly pedestrian and he had vastly outperformed his FIP for the entirety of his career. It sure seemed like JeDi was taking something of a risk.
Then again, you can’t really blame him. The failings of the bullpen were one of the biggest reasons the Halos missed the postseason in 2012 and they certainly didn’t help matters in 2013. A very good case could be made that if the relief corps submarined the Angels for a third year in a row, that it would be the final nail in the coffin for Dipoto’s tenure in Anaheim. To avoid that, he broke his philosophical vows and ponied up the cash to try and land an arm that he thought would stabilize the bullpen.
Because Smith was so outstanding in 2014, it looks like the right move. However, considering all the other assets the Angels forfeit during the 2014 season to improve the bullpen, you could also argue that it didn’t work enough and that the money could’ve been better spent on the rotation.
So how did Smith become so outstanding in 2014?
Smith ratcheted his strikeout rate all the way up to a career-best 23.9% and cut his walk rate nearly in half at 5.3%. That’s a pretty good way to achieve better results, but those aren’t things pitchers do out of nowhere, at least not without the use of wizardry.
The thing that jumps out the most is that Smith mixed his four-seam fastball into his repertoire a lot less. He had been using it more in recent years to combat left-handed batters, which he still did to a slightly lesser extent this year. But, according to Brooks Baseball, he effectively stopped throwing it to righties altogether. That’s interesting and all, but I don’t know if it explains anything because his elevated strikeout rate was virtually identical across his platoon splits.
The thing is though that Smith didn’t generate many more whiffs despite generating more strikeouts. In fact, his 7.9% swinging strike rate was down from the previous two seasons. What he did do though was throw 66.0% first strikes, a huge jump up from his career rate of 57.9%. That and his drop in walks might have been a result of mechanical adjustments to improve his command. It could also be that he just threw more pitches in the zone, but he didn’t. His 49.7% zone rate was actually below his career average. In other words, I don’t know how he did it other than a nebulous notion that he just was hitting his spots better and putting batters in worse counts.
Does that mean 2014 was a fluke?
Yeah, probably. At least as far as him being so very good. Smith outperforming his FIP isn’t something I’d worry too much about. Like I said, he does it every year. At a point that becomes part of his profile and not incredible luck. He’s reached that point. Still, there is room for regression.
The most obvious area for Smith to come back to earth on is his BABIP of .214, which was nearly 50 points below his career BABIP. A BABIP that low for an extreme groundball pitcher just isn’t sustainable. He did induce more contact out of the strike zone this year, so there might be some chance that Smith can prevent it from bouncing all the way back up, but it is coming back up. Between that and his smoke and mirrors strikeout and walk rates, it seems highly unlikely that Smith will be able to replicate his 2014 performance.
Is the “My Kinda Party” nickname going to stick?
No, it won’t. Stop it, Taylor.
Final Answer
Smith pitched over his head in 2014 and the Angels reaped the benefits. His stellar work helped revamp the bullpen and made Jerry Dipoto look good. While he may not be as spectacular in 2015, he should still be quite good and a major component of the 2015 relief corps.
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