The reliever that Angels fans loved to hate had the audacity to go out and actually pitch really well this season. What’s up with that, Jepsen? Bullpen whipping boys aren’t supposed to work hard, dedicate themselves to their game and turn into a high quality reliever. We’re going to have to investigate this further.
Is the resurgence of Jepsen for real?
Let’s see. His ERA (2.63) is in line with his FIP (2.78) and SIERA (2.62). His strikeout rate jumped to 28.9%. His swinging strike rate spiked to 11.6%. His walk rate basically held steady at 8.9%. His groundball percentage rose to 47.8%. His HR/FB rate of 7.7% is perfectly normal.
Yep, it all checks out. This was not a fluke. His .263 BABIP might be a little low by his standards, but not egregiously so. We all know that reliever performance can be volatile, but everything here looks like it really stems from Jepsen just plain pitching better. Who woulda guessed it?
That’s great, but how did he do it?
Ah, yeah, that’s pretty important, I suppose. Pitchers don’t just magically get better over an offseason without doing anything different. That holds true for Jepsen who changed up quite a bit for this season.
He talked in spring training about how he was going to lower his arm slot and scrap his cutter in favor of a changeup. These are the kind of things lots of struggling pitchers say going into a new season. Seldom do they actually produce positive results. Normally, they are signs of impending doom. (Hi, Ernesto Frieri!)
The lowered arm slot definitely got implemented, but it is hard to quantify the effect. He was a monster against right-handed hitting this year, allowing a .223 wOBA. He’s always been tough on righties, but a lowered arm slot could certainly have made him even tougher.
The real gamechanger though was that changeup. Turns out it is a hell of a pitch. Over half the balls in play on his change were groundballs, explaining the rise in that number. But the ball actually wasn’t even put in play that much. It was actually his biggest swing-and-miss pitch, explaining the rise in that number. It was also a great pitch for him to use to neutralize lefties who only posted a .276 wOBA against him. That was HUGE for Kevin as he’d been cannon fodder for left-handed hitting the last few years.
How do we know that it will last?
Eh, we don’t really. His changes look to be very, very real. His performance tailed off a bit in the second half, but even those numbers were still better than anything he had done earlier in his career. If anything, the only significant change in his stats was that his strand rate wasn’t nearly as lucky after the All-Star break.
Let’s be honest, the only reason to doubt it is that it is Kevin Jepsen. We’ve been teased by him so much over the years and seen his not-all-that-high high and his soul-crushingly-low lows. He could start pitching like Mariano Rivera in his prime and Angel fans still wouldn’t trust him one bit.
Why is every third picture in the Google Image search I did for “Kevin Jepsen” a picture of Carly Rae Jepsen?
C’mon, Google, you’re better than that. That song came out in 2012. The phenomenon is over, time to move on.
Final Answer
Like it or not, and I don’t like, but Kevin Jepsen looks like he is legitimately good. I understand if you want to see him do it again before fully buying in, but right now the smart money is on Jepsen repeating his success in 2015. Now if you’ll excuse me, I am going to hitch a ride home on one of these flying pigs that keeps going by my office window.
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