RBs risky?

While they can be very pro ready, a lot of RBs get hurt in their rookie years

Now, offensive linemen profile as the healthiest players coming out of the draft, which lends some credibility to their reputation as the safest picks to make in April. Compare them to the average running back, who will miss nearly twice as many games as an offensive lineman during their respective first three seasons, and running backs continue to look like a bad bet in the opening rounds of the draft.

We’ve also included a second statistic called “Flameout Rate.” This captures the percentage of the player pool that missed more than half the games an average player at his position would have expected to play in. It just reinforces how safe offensive linemen are, although it also reveals that defensive linemen can be very risky. Considering that the quarterback figure is again not particularly relevant with this sort of analysis, running backs are very clearly the most dangerous bet for a team in the draft.

That might not be great news for fans of the Buffalo Bills, San Diego Chargers, or Houston Texans, each of whom may end up depending upon a rookie back this year. It’s easy to dream of the Chris Johnson scenario, but there are also a fair number of guys like Darren McFadden lurking in the player pool. The message: If your team is drafting a running back or getting your hopes up after picking one, well, don’t be surprised if your big dreams end up on the trainer’s table.