This post is a week overdue, but there was so much going on that I haven’t had a chance to get around to finishing it. Anyway, with the trade deadline last week and the Tigers in the thick of a playoff race I wanted to re-visit the famous Doyle Alexander acquisition that happened August 12, 22-years ago.
In 1987, the Tigers were in a very similar situation that they find themselves in this season — neck and neck in their division, hoping to make it back to the post-season three years after a magical trip to the World Series. In a move that smacked of desperation, the Tigers traded for the 36-year old Doyle Alexander from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for, at the time, just a prospect named John Smoltz. The magnitude of the deal at the time was slight, as Alexander was 5-10 with a 4.13 ERA when the trade happened amounting to what would have been about a 4th starter for the ’87 Tigers.
Instead, he wound up pitching like the Tigers’ ace down the stretch as he went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA and three complete games in 11 starts. The Tigers looked like geniuses as they edged out the Toronto Blue Jays for the AL East title as a direct result of Alexander’s pitching performance. Despite the Tigers going on to lose to the Twins and Doyle Alexander pitching to a record of 20-29 over his next two seasons before retiring at the age of 39, Doyle Alexander helped the Tigers prevail in what was one of the most exhilarating divisional races in MLB history. Then that John Smoltz guy went on to be a Hall of Fame pitcher for the Braves for just about the next two decades.
And, ever since, that began the predicament teams who may be in the running for a division title face at trade deadlines — make a deal that will help this year and potentially lose a “John Smoltz” or stand pat and hold on to that prospect that may turn out to be John Smoltz?
To me, the answer, 99 out of 100 times, is to make the deal and take your chances on “Smoltz” not panning out. Of course you don’t want to unload multiple prospects for a single rental player (see trade Tigers rejected this season for Roy Halladay), but if you’re faced with the dilemma of trading one measely prospect for someone that can lead you to the playoffs and get you that much closer to winning an elusive World Series trophy, do it. As a fan, I’m ecstatic that the Tigers pulled the trigger for Jarrod Washburn. Whether it turns out to be a successful deal or not, the Tigers made a move for this season because pennant chases don’t happen every year in Detroit — revel in it and do what it takes to increase the odds of putting the team over the hump. Dave Dombrowski did that and, as a fan, I’m thankful for that.
What I don’t understand are the people that say the Alexander/Smoltz deal is among one of the worst trades in MLB history. ESPN Page 2 did a story and called it the 4th worst trade in MLB history citing Smoltz’s success through the nineties and that, “Detroit hasn’t developed a pitcher of John Smoltz’s quality since the ill-fated Doyle Alexander trade.” First of all, not many teams develop a pitcher of Smoltz’s quality EVER. He’s a Hall of Famer and they’re not found in every farm system. They’re a rare breed and nobody could have predicted what kind of career Smoltz was going to have.
When I hear “worst trades of all time, ” I think of deals that not only backfire, but never worked. Detroit’s purpose when making the deal was to go on and win the division and put themselves in a better position to win the World Series. For those purposes, and considering how dominant Alexander was, the deal was as successful as could be. What Smoltz did the next 20-years was, for the most part, irrelevant to what the Tigers were trying to accomplish with the deal. Obviously, if they would have known at the time he would go on to be a Hall of Fame pitcher for the next 20-years, they would never have done the deal. That would have been impossible to foresee and the fact that it did happen just makes it a freak occurrence.
At the exact time the deal was executed reactions were probably, “eh that’s not a big deal,” then Alexander went 9-0 and people praised the snot out of the Tigers management, and then the next 20-years happened and all of a sudden it’s become one of the worst trades of all time?
With all that being said, it’s this one trade that currently haunts owners into making a deadline deal to acquire a 3-month rental player for a touted prospect that could, if everything goes right, become a Hall of Famer. In my opinion, if the prospect isn’t on your “untouchable” list, then don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on a deal that can help you win in the current season. The season is way too long and opportunities to win a World Series too rare to throw it all away because you’re afraid a prospect might avoid all injuries, overcome unfavorable odds, and develop into the next “John Smoltz.”
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