Well, I gave you five reasons to be optimistic about the Bills season, now, it’s the other side of the coin.
5) Depth at key spots: It’s funny, but on paper, the Bills actually have depth at five positions: WR, running back, secondary, QB and DL. Now is it good depth or is it just clutter? I think it’s mixed in certain areas. However, arguably, the most important unit on the team is severely lacking back-ups. 2 years ago, would you have ever been paranoid about Demetrius Bell getting hurt? Well, you should be because if he goes down, we got guys who have never started an NFL game to replace him. It’s a scary proposition because the Bills have always been snake bitten by injuries over the years. A few injuries here or there, and Ryan Fitzpatrick will be running for his life. I don’t even want to get into the right tackle situation. It’s either the guy named after a fruit or the guys we signed last year when Cornell Green got cut.
4) Linebackers: I’m the type of fan who likes to look at how other teams are built. You know, what makes those teams successful? When I hear a 3-4 defense, I think linebackers. I think of the guys the Steelers have. I think of Clay Matthews, Jr. from the Packers. I think Ray Lewis destroying ball carriers left and right. If you want to go the route of the history of Bills, I think of the early 90’s linebacking core with Bennett, Talley, Conlan, and Bailey/Bentley. That was a top 5 linebacking core in the league. As for today, I think the play of the linebacking core rests on one player: #56. If Shawne Merriman doesn’t look like he did in 2007, you are looking at the weakest position on the team. We now the stats by now: 39.5 sacks during his first three years in the league, four since 2008. Last year, the Bills linebackers accounted for just 9 sacks on the season. To give you an example about how crappy that is, nine linebackers in the league had more sacks than our unit. They need a playmaker for the unit…badly.
3) Fitz slowed down: When Ryan Fitzpatrick took over for Trent Edwards after week 2, the Harvard product gave the Bills something they’ve lacked for years…a formidable passing attack. In Fitzpatrick’s first four starts, he passed for 11 touchdowns and the Bills averaged 28 points a game. Of course, they lost those games because the defense allowed 34 points a game. However, Fitz’s 4 game touchdown run were the most a Bills QB threw for since Drew Bledsoe in 2002. For the season, Fitz became the first QB since 2002 to throw for 3,000 yards and at least 20 touchdowns. However, it seemed like defenses started to catch on to him by the end of the season. If you take away the Bengals collapse (4 touchdown passes), Fitz threw for 7 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in seven starts. If you include the Bengals game, the Bills did go 4-4 over that stretch, but Fitz wasn’t the biggest reason for it. It was due in large part to the defense, the running game picking up, and the opponents having QBs by the name of Drew Stanton and Jake Delhomme. Over Fitz’s last 9 starts, the Bills averaged only 17 points a game and if you take away the team’s 49 point explosion, the number dwindles even lower. The worst Fitz stat? Sixteen turnovers (11 picks and 5 fumbles) during those last 9 starts. If you’re looking for nice excuses, you could chalk it up to the WRs being snake-bit by injuries, the weather, or Fitz getting tired. However, there’s also the “defenses caught up to you” excuse. We saw that when Trent Edwards started 5-1 in 2008, only to then go down the tubes when defense realized that he doesn’t throw the ball down field.
2) Defensive question marks: Even though the defense made the positive list, they are going to make the negative list today. Can you name the QBs the Bills defense has beaten over the last 3 years? Well, here goes: Chad Henne (twice), Jake Delhomme (twice), Drew Stanton, Carson Palmer, Jim Sorgi, Byron Leftwich, Mark Sanchez, Matt Hasselbeck, David Garrard, JaMarcus Russell, Trent Green, Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, and Tyler Thigpen. Besides Rivers and Cutler, that’s a pretty bad list of QBs. Last year, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Joe Flacco threw 12 touchdowns against the Bills defense. Overall, the team was ranked 26th in passing touchdowns allowed (28). That’s just the passing defense….rush defense? Eh! When the Jets have averaged over 200 yards rushing in their last four games against you, you have issues. The Bills were ranked last in rush defense, giving up almost 5 yards a carry and almost 3,000 yards on the season. A lot of people have Marcell Dareus penciled in to change that. That’s a lot of pressure to put on a rookie to help turn around such a poor defense.
1) Benefit of the doubt: Look, I know I get the finger pointed at me for being too negative at times. Trust me, I’m trying everything in my power to believe in the Bills. But 10 years without the playoffs? Eh. I can understand the notion of not giving them the benefit of the doubt anymore. We have been down this road before, having faith in them only to then have them screw us. I’m not going to tell you that I think Buddy Nix is the man. He seems like a competent guy, but we are still very early in his term as the GM. I’m not going to be able to judge him until next year when his original draft class turns 3. Make no mistake about it, the Bills are building via the draft, and until the Bills develop a decent track record for drafting great players, the jury will continue to be out on Nix. It also doesn’t help that for years, the Bills have spent under the cap and have cried about being a small market team. In other words: You probably shouldn’t ignore the Bills past failures when you are judging the team.
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