Of the four major North American sports leagues, hockey has been the slowest to take to advanced stats. It’s no surprise really. Hockey isn’t parcelled out into nice little segments like baseball and football. The possession’s aren’t as neat and easily definable as they are in basketball. Hockey is a dynamic, fluid mess of players and equipment. Attempts have been made, and it is amazing the progress that has been made in the development of advanced stats given the paucity of data. Hockey is similar to basketball this way. Go back a few years ago, and the most advanced stats going on were on-court/off-court plus-minus, and other similar measures. Any hockey fan should know the dangers of judging a player by plus-minus. Basketball was probably behind hockey until SportVu was introduced. Suddenly, there was an overflow of data, and smart people were able to take that data, and figure out better ways to play the game, better ways to assemble rosters, and a whole world of other ideas, many of which don’t leave team facilities. Hockey needs a SportVu.
Now there has been talk of this happening for a couple years now. In the meantime, intrepid people like Eric Tulsky and Corey Sznajder decided to stop waiting for a SportVu-esque data collection measure to come to hockey and just track items themselves. Primarily this has been through scoring chances and zone entries/exits. Through this fantastic work, we’ve learned a lot about the game of hockey. We are finally connecting dots between the classic hockey thought and advanced stats. Every coach in hockey history has emphasized the importance of the the blueline. Now we know how important it is, and what the best way to cross it or defend it is. We know what plays gain added value from this. That’s a massive step forward from using shot attempts to sorta, kinda measure possession. Alison and I at the Union Blue want to continue on in the good spirit of those who started tracking games (since most of them now work for actual NHL teams).
Beginning this season, the Union Blue team (primarily Alison and myself), along with some of the guys over at Buckeye State Hockey will be tracking rebounds. We’re hoping to gain a few insights from this. First, I’m really looking forward to having more advanced data on goaltenders. We’ll be able to see what shots end up in rebounds, if certain shots from certain areas lead to more rebounds, and what shots lead to the best rebounds. We’ll be able to see what goalies are better at controlling their rebounds, and what goalies just don’t give them up. We’re also going to learn more about forwards and rebounds. There are some guys, like Ryan Smyth and Tomas Holmstrom, who have always just seemed to have a knack for banging home rebounds. Tracking rebounds and rebounds opportunities will allow us to quantify that. Maybe there is someone on the CBJ roster who has that knack, but hasn’t yet been given the opportunities to stand in front of the net to take advantage of it. Maybe there is someone who keeps being put in front of the net, but isn’t capitalizing on rebounds like they should. Finally, we’ll also get another look at defensemen. This is what initially drew me to this idea, and what excites me the most. Of the four major sports, basketball is the closest sport to hockey. And the rebound is one of the major statistics used in basketball. Yet for some reason this has never been of any consideration in hockey. I’m excited to see what defensemen are able to collect rebounds and move the puck out of the zone, what defensemen can’t box out forwards to save their life, or even if any of this is actually a repeatable skill. I always felt that part of the unspoken talent of Marc Methot and Mike Commodore were their ability to keep forwards off the goaltender so the goalie could cover the puck. There is value in that. Rebound goals are one of the best ways to score, they have among the highest percentage shots a player can take. If a player is able to limit those shots, that provides something tangible we can measure that previously could only be guessed at.
So that is what we have for now. At this point, I’m not certain how this will be presented. There we probably be some game to game posts regarding this project, along with the occasional post updating how the Jackets are looking, and some more definitive posts once we get deep enough into the season. For now this will be focused on the Blue Jackets, but if there is enough interest in this, and we get enough trackers from the tUB and BS Hockey teams, maybe we can expand it to cover more teams. In any case, hockey season is here, and I for one cannot wait for the puck to drop Thursday night.
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