After weeks of our baseball lives sustaining on rumor, innuendo, and the occasional piece of real news (the Coco Crisp trade, additions to the bullpen, Junichi Tawaza signing, arbitration), the signing of Dustin Pedroia this week marks a decided turn in the pace of news that will give color to the twenty five men who will don the Red Sox uniform on Opening Day 2009.
Enjoy the last few days of dreaming about what “might” transpire this off-season, the Winter Meetings will force teams to go “all in” with their hands in Las Vegas next week.
In many ways, the Red Sox sit in a very comfortable position. Do they have needs? What team doesn’t.
Heading into the highlight of the Hot Stove season, the Red Sox still sit without a starting catcher and fourth outfielder. On top of that, decisions about who will fill the tail of the starting rotation and, depending on where Justin Masterson fits in that mix, who picks up his critical late inning relief work will be sure to shake out as available arms start to find new homes.
Add the question marks that are the hip of Mike Lowell and the return to form of David Ortiz from wrist and knee troubles over the past two seasons and you can make the case for the need for a corner infielder with pop in the middle of the lineup (ok…I could have just said it….Mark Teixeira).
Even with those question marks, the only glaring hole in the Red Sox roster coming into 2009 is behind the plate. Every other place that the Red Sox may make a move to better starts with a position that is league average or better already. That is an enviable position to be dealing from.
What makes Theo Epstein’s position stronger than most as everyone prepares to sit at the table that puts the Vegas term “high stakes” to shame, is that there isn’t a deal out there that he has to make or a position that he can’t find a back up plan that would represent a fatal flaw next season and keep this team from contending.
Think about the Yankees for a second. Right now their starting rotation consists of Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlian and Phillip Hughes. With C.C. Sabathia playing hard to get, every other free agent pitcher (A.J. Burnett) and/or trade candidate looking to lock in a big dollar extension (Jake Peavy) must be looking at their hand and knowing they have the cards to take down the big stack of chips sitting in front of Brian Cashman. Cashman is almost powerless in his negotiations because his need for pitching is so great and transparent.
Outside of the catcher position, which leave average production is so low that the bar to be acceptable isn’t very high, the Red Sox don’t have to work from a position of weakness.
Even at the catcher position, Jason Varitek isn’t very likely to get a three year contract for more than $30 million dollars. While I don’t think the Red Sox will go there, if all else fails, they could and it wouldn’t kill them. I actually still think there’s a chance that Varitek accepts arbitration and negotiates a two year $18-$20 million dollar deal with a club option third season knowing that a one year, $8 million dollar arbitration agreement isn’t the worst case scenario for him. One good year at the plate could mean a three year, $25 million dollar contract after next season if he performs.
But it all comes back to the Red Sox not being forced into any specific course of action.
Could they go for Teixeira? Absolutely. At the same time, could they reinvest in their current young stars and sign a big name arm to fill out the starting rotation and trade one of their young guns for a young backstop? Absolutely.
They not only have flexibility in their options, but they have money to spend. With $28 million dollars coming off the books from Manny Ramirez and Curt Schilling alone, there’s payroll flexibility to play with.
While this could be invested in a new face, it could also lock in much of the core of this championship contending team for years to come.
Coming off of Dustin Pedroia’s recent extension, Theo Epstein alluded to potential conversations with other current players regarding contract extensions (i.e. Jonathan Papelbon, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, Jon Lester).
So as the Red Sox head into the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas we should prepare ourselves for a multitude of scenarios and outcomes. But one thing you should feel confident about is that no one controls Theo Epstein’s destiny but himself. He holds all the cards and he won’t be trapped into making the wrong move because he has too.
So for some last words before the front office sits down in Vegas,I give you Teddy KGB from Rounders:
“Mr. Son of a bitch, let’s play some cards! “
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