This article will be a comprehensive analysis on all of the Redskins struggles on third down and short situations, but if you aren’t in to careful analysis and number crunching, at least you learned this: The Washington Redskins have not had a successful 3rd down run call for a first down since Week 2.
There has been all sorts of problems for the Redskins’ third and short offense, going back to last year. In the offseason, I deemed this to be a “power running” issue, but as I have examined these splits this season, that has proven to be a small part of a much larger issue. In situations where the down marker reads “3” and sits 4 or fewer yards from the computerized yellow “first down” line, the Redskins have only converted 12 of 30 attempts on the season. That’s 40% efficiency, and historically the league average tends to be around 70-73%, although this year, offensive stats are at an all time high across the league. This is hardly all attributable to power running deficiencies. In my game recap, I said that “I doubt [the offense] could pick up three yards against ‘air’.”
I didn’t go into it then, but what I was referring to is the times in which it seems like the Redskin offense is playing dodgeball against itself. That is, a quick three step drop, and Campbell tries to hit someone in the foot as hard as he can to ensure that his ball will not be caught. A play like that is designed to make the defense irrelivant, and rest assured they are that. 40% efficiency. So I dug a little deeper and charted all 30 of the Redskins’ 3rd and short (3rd and 4 or less yards to gain) plays this season and sorted them by type, based on traditionally how effective each play call has historically been at grabbing the first down. Any handoff or QB sneak was a “type 1” play call, any play action pass a type 2, any normal five or seven step drop and read a type 3, a toss or a screen is a type 4, a trick play or a gadget play is a type 5, and the type 6 is the classic 3 step “Saunders dodgeball attack”.
Obvious to everyone but Al Saunders, the type 1 and 2 plays will net first downs far more often than type 5 or 6 plays. The 12 successful Redskin conversions this year breakdown as follows: 4 handoffs/sneaks, 1 PA pass, 5 normal dropbacks, 1 toss play, and 1 3-step drop. The only three step drop conversion came yesterday, when Campbell made a good, hard throw at Cooley’s feet, but Captain Chaos was able to make a great catch (his only of the day) to get Campbell out. The 17 unsuccessful attempts break down as follows: 4 handoffs/sneaks, NO play action passes, 3 normal dropbacks, 1 toss play, one gadget play (direct snap to Portis, Campbell out wide), EIGHT 3-step drops (4 drops, 4 errant throws), one penalty, and a fumbled snap.
Obviously Saunders can’t be held responsible for penalties and fumbled snaps. The reason that the Redskins are 1/9 on “type 6” third down play calls is obvious. If Campbell throws the ball as hard as he can to hit it in a tight window, the ball can not be caught by a player standing 5 yards away. It’s not a whole lot different than the reason a “clocked” ball is never intercepted. It’s not a pass that is thrown to be completed. You can’t complete this pass against air. Stop calling it. If Al continues to call it, Campbell has to take something off of it. The play is wasted if he doesn’t.
Aside from the fact that 1/3 of the third and short oppertunities this team gets are pissed away by the offensive coordinator, there are other serious concerns for this unit. The running game is only 4/8 (50%) on the year in short yardage off of handoffs and sneaks, which is far below the 70% historic conversion rate. This is very much due to the offensive line being in shambles, but I also cited a lack of power blocking skill among skill players. No big blocking TE and being forced to use a journeyman lineman in that role. A fullback who loses to athletic guys and a TE who loses to big strong guys in the run game. Two running backs who struggle to break tackles in the open field anyhow. Still, the threat of the Redskins running on 3rd and short is still large. They have the reputation of a smash mouth football team. So someone please explain why we have only once tried a play action play on third and short! Third and short is when play action is the very most effective!
The Redskins have enjoyed a lot of success on first and second down running play action this year, how can we be so stupid as to throw it out of the playbook on third down. Especially with a decimated offensive line that tends to yield sacks on third down when Campbell has a 5 or 7 step drop, doesn’t it make a lot of sense to use play action (and draws for that matter) as a tool to protect the quarterback? Isn’t it possible we could use the defensive look we see in third and short to take a shot down the field? Instead, we have to sit through a quick third down passing attempt at the sticks to no one in particular every other time we find ourselves in 3rd and short. Is it any wonder that we have converted a better percentage from five or more yards away than from four or fewer yards away?
Al Saunders does a good job keeping defenses off balance with creativity throughout a majority of the game. How many drives is he going to kill with plays that just don’t have a realistic chance to succeed?
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