According to a league source, barring a sudden change, Marcus Smart & the Celtics will not agree to an extension prior to tonight's deadline
— Adam Himmelsbach (@AdamHimmelsbach) October 16, 2017
As I said yesterday morning, it would have been surprising for this deal to get done by today’s deadline.
Smart can up his value a lot if he has a halfway decent shooting season. He’s also going to be this team’s primary backup ballhandler, so if he effectively runs the second unit while still doing Marcus Smart things, he might coax a big offer out of some team.
Ainge, meanwhile, will play the usual GM game in restricted free agency that I’ve laid out a few times. When he glances at the landscape, there are only a few teams with any real cap space next season: Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Indiana, and The Lakers. Cleveland will join that list if LeBron leaves.
Dallas and LA have already drafted their future point guards so they’re out. Atlanta has Dennis Shroder and only $14 million in cap space so they’re also out.
Chicago will have a ton of money but they also just got Kris Dunn, so one would assume they’re going to give him a chance to grow. He’s already a good defender who can’t really shoot and they only have to pay him $4.2 million… so I’m doubting they make a big play on Smart.
That leaves Indiana as the biggest threat to sign Smart away. However, they have Darren Collison, who has a $10 million non-guaranteed contract for next season. They also have Corey Joseph, who has a $7.9 million player option next season.
The bottom line here is… Smart might be in a tough situation. He’s a restricted free agent point guard at a time where point guards are plentiful and cap space is not. He’s going to have to have a “most improved player” season just to maybe get some interest… and even then Ainge can just casually let teams know that he’s matching all offers so don’t bother.
The only wildcard here is Smart doing what Nerlens Noel did and signing the $6 million qualifying offer he’ll get and then take his chances as an unrestricted free agent in 2019. That’s a long way off, though. I’d expect both sides to find some common ground in mid-July, but who knows that will happen between now and then. Smart has a full season to put on a show and change the entire dynamic of this negotiation.
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