Reviewing the Replay Reviews

In the second half of the season in particular, much of Terry Francona‘s management style has come under criticism. From his small ball tendencies to his obvious favoritism in the clubhouse, there have been obvious faults, but most of these are quantifiable. It is nearly impossible to tell how much a manager effects the game, largely due to the randomness inherent in baseball. Even making the right move could result in failure and the wrong one could find success.

One aspect of the manager’s success can be tabulated however, how they have done when asking for replays. While he doesn’t make this decision on his own, it is ultimately up to Francona whether or not he wants to challenge. Like any other situation, he has to look to his players and coaches, particularly Gregory Langbehn, the team’s replay coordinator to help inform his decision.

Also of interest this year is the fact that even with replay, only 49% of calls challenged have been overturned. This continues to show how accurate MLB umpires have been when making the initial call. For the Indians at least, I cannot recall a mistake made by the umpires in New York after a replay was called for. There have been a few requests for replays that were unfairly denied by those on the field, however.Ever since it’s inception in 2014, it seems like there is a play reviewed in almost every game. It turns out that this isn’t actually the case for the Indians at least as Francona has used replay just 26 times, less than all but two other MLB teams (the Nationals and Tigers). On the other side, no team has had plays challenged fewer times than the Tribe at 18 as it would seem that Indians games have been relatively fairly called this year, at least on reviewable plays.

Above is the list of each team’s winning percent on challenges from best to worst with the Yankees leading with a conspiratorial 74.1% and the Rays at the bottom with an almost impossible 19.2%. In between, almost every manager has sat between 46%-65% (only nine teams sit outside this mark either way) and Francona sits dead center at 50/50 (technically 13/13). Since there is no punishment for a missed challenge, Francona must not have seen an obvious opportunity to change the outcome of the call on the field more than 26 times and even half of those were essentially unnecessary challenges.

Of those challenged, those most often looked at are tag plays and particularly tags at second base. These are the plays that seem to occur every game as many close calls are found on steal attempts and near assists and 42% of Francona’s challenges have been for this type. This is only slightly ahead of the league average rate of 39%.

Comparing Francona’s 2015 to his 2014 in the category yields similar results. He was a little more effective in his choices (won 54.6% of challenges) and he challenged at a similar rate (about once every five games). Given the rules of the challenge system, it doesn’t leave much room for talent. A manager can attempt to challenge at least one close play per game because he can, but multiple angles of video rarely leave any play undecided.

The fact is that MLB umpires are so good that they can make over one hundred thousand calls on balls in play every season and only have the barest minimum (just over 1,000 so far this year) contested in any way. Even on these closest of the close plays, only 51% have been overturned. Because of that, the percentages above have more to do with the number of incorrect calls against a team than any strategy or intuition on the side of the manager.

If anything, one could complain that Francona doesn’t use his replays enough, but he is already challenging all of the plays that are close enough to be overturned and is still only getting a result 50% of the time. If he challenged more, it would most likely just push the Indians numbers into the Rays territory where their league high 48 has lead to their terrible success rate. No matter which way you look at it the manager has little control over these ultimate results and Francona has been as consistent in asking as anyone in the league.