Revisionist History: The 1997 Pittsburgh Pirates

A post from our friend Christopher Bradley over at Tri-State of Mind Baseball

I. Introduction

“It almost could have been a movie,” third baseman Joe Randa said. “It was kind of a misfit group that started believing in each other, guys coming together and gaining each other’s trust.”-Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Until recently, the Pittsburgh Pirates and their fans were suffering through the longest streak of losing seasons in all of North American professional sports. This may be a moot point now, because in 2013 all of that suffering ended, but for those of us that are die hard fans, we know that the suffering COULD HAVE ended in 1997. There would have been less of an ominous spectre hanging over the Pirates, and just a bunch of really bad teams in the 2000s. That year, the Pirates came the closest they would ever come to having a winning season during the streak.

That’s not to say the 1997 Pirates weren’t a really bad team. When Kevin McClatchy’s ownership group took over, they slashed the payroll from $21 million in 1996 to $9 million in 1997. They were expected to lose over 100 games. This team, which was unceremoniously dubbed, “The Freak Show,” actually competed with the Houston Astros for the division until he last week of the season. These Pirates ended up finishing 79-83. Highlight of this season (not including the exciting race for the division): Francisco Cordova and Rincardo Rincon combining for a 10 inning no-hitter. The immortal Mark Smith hit a walk-of 3-run homer in the bottom of the 10th for the Pirates to win it.

For Pirates fans in my age group–that would be the 24-35 age group–successful and exciting Pirates teams were something we were born into, but but then had snatched away almost immediately. For 10 years, 1986-1996, aka the “Leyland Years,” the Pirates developed a lot of stars, including Barry Bonds, Tim Wakefield, Jay Bell, Bobby Bonilla, Andy Van Slyke, and Jermaine Allensworth. Wouldn’t you know it, Leyland left the team (because of the fiscal fascism of McClatchy and Co.) at the end of 1996, and in 1997 won his only World Series with the upstart Florida Marlins. You’ll see some former Pirates on that winning team too.

After the Leyland Years, the Pirates had many managers, none of them very good. However, some of them very entertaining. I am a Clint Hurdle proponent; Clint makes what some superstars on Pirates Twitter consider to be either questionable or apocalyptic decisions at certain points, but most research either can’t pin down the effect a manager has, or it postulates that managers don’t have that much of an effect, so I don’t mind too much. For the record, the manager of the 1997 Pirates was Gene Lamont.

Today, we’re going to see if the 1997 Pirates could have actually ended up having a winning season using the greatest baseball simulator ever devised: Out of the Park Baseball.

II. The Method & Rules

Most of you are probably familiar with OOTP as it is consistently ranked as THE best baseball simulator money can buy. With decent mobile versions as well, a lot of people make a lot of fun simulations possible by using OOTP.

For this scenario, I will try and make it as realistic as possible, so no, I will not try and trade for 1997 MVPs Ken Griffey Jr. and Larry Walker. In fact, I am going to attempt to keep transactions between the Pirates and other teams at none. Here are some other rules:

• For this simulation, I will be using the latest updated version of OOTP 15.
• I am going to start with the historical Opening Day roster.
• From there, I will try to call up only players that played on the 1997 Pirates team. This is because OOTP’s A.I. develops players using their own algorithm, aka not real life. So if John P. Nobody reaches 4 stars in the minors, but never made it to the 25-man in real life, he’s not getting the call in this scenario either. As an example of OOTP’s A.I. turning nobodies into somebodies, I’ll take a moment to tell you about Jaff Decker. In one simulation I did, starting with the 2014 Pirates, the MLB decided to expand in 2015. One of the expansion teams was the Jacksonville Zombies, and during the expansion draft, they took Jaff Decker because I did not protect him, and by 2016 he was a 5 star player and became a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate for the Zombies. Computers, man. I played the simulation all the way until 2026, going to three World Series with the Pirates and winning one.
• Injuries happen; I’m going to try and play a season wherein they aren’t rampant. If they are, I will start over.
• I’ll never start over if the season turns into what it was predicted to turn into, i.e. 100+ losses. In other words, I won’t keep playing to prove that they could win 81+ games.
• According to Baseball Reference, there were not any groundbreaking transactions I need to attempt to pull off. See here. Keep in mind that OOTP has the transactions from the end of the 1996 season to opening day 1997 already accounted for.
• Payroll then was roughly $9 million. Since I am playing only one season, I will not be signing extensions for anyone or signing huge free agents if they become available. The A.I. is set up so computer McClatchy is just as tight with money as real life McClatchy anyway.

Onto the simulation!

III. The Simulation: Opening Day – All-Star Break

Opening Day 1997, the Pirates beat the San Francisco Giants 5-2, here is the historical lineup:

Opening Day 2014 by way of 1997, the Pirates lost (gave up) the game 6-4, here is the box score. Note that Joe Randa has already begun to do Joe Randa things!:

By the end of April, my simulation Pirates were in 4th place with a record of 11-15. In 1997, the Pirates were 12-13 and in 2nd place. Tony Womack led the team by batting .337, and Kevin Young led the league in strikeouts with 35.

Things didn’t get much better by the end of May. Simulation Pirates sported a record of 24-30 and were in 5th place, tied with the Cubs. The real story is that Houston was not performing like they were in 1997 either as the Cincinnati Reds held down first place at the end of May. More relevantly, this happened in May:

June was another middling month for the simulation Pirates and they finished 36-44 and in 4th place. Roger Clemens threw a no-hitter in June for the Blue Jays because he’s Roger Clemens. Finally, the simulation Pirates took a huge loss, Joe Randa was placed on the DL for 3-4 weeks. On June 30, I received this trade offer and had to use every bit of resistance to not accept it:

In 1997, the Pirates had one All-Star: Rookie 2B, Tony Womack. He was the pity entry on an All-Star Roster that featured guys like Larry Walker, Barry Bonds, Craig Biggio, Greg Maddux, Jeff Bagwell, etc. In the simulation, the Pirates again had a lone All-Star, closer Ricardo Rincon who had a 2-2 record, 17 Saves, and a microscopic 1.47 ERA.

The simulation All-Star Game was the polar opposite of the real life one. In the simulation, the National League won 14-6, with Rincon getting the win. In real life, the American League won 3-1, the winning pitcher in that contest was Joe Rosado. Sandy Alomar, Jr. received MVP honors in 1997; in the simulation, Craig Biggio took them.

If only trades like this were offered in real life:

At this point in 1997, the Pittsburgh Pirates Freak Show was in 1st place with a record of 43-43, my simulation Freak Show were in 4th place with a 40-47 record. The Reds still held down 1st place at this point the simulation, while Houston sat in 3rd with a 42-46 record. In other words, the simulation is nearly identical in performance to the real life Pirates, however, the Reds and St. Louis Cardinals teams that both finished behind the Astros and Pirates in 1997 sit atop the division in the simulation.

IV. The Simulation: Second Half – Postseason

July 12, 1997. Francisco Cordova and Ricardo Rincon pitched a combined no-hitter. I fiddled with my rotation so Cordova would get the start on this day in the simulation. For posterity:

[mlbvideo id=”20103497″ width=”400″ height=”224″ /]

Watching that video made me want to repeatedly punch McClatchy. Somehow in his mind, slashing payroll was OK as long as this kind of thing happened. The kind of thing that had not happened for the Pirates since 1976. Whatever, he still got his new stadium.

In the simulation, the game must have known what I was trying, because Bill Spiers hit a single on the second pitch of the game.

Here is the final box score from the simulation:

Finally, here is the Pirates pitching:

Francisco Cordova’s Game Score in 1997 was a 95 (a “Gem” is 65 or higher). In the simulation, Cordova had a Game Score of 2. In 1998, Oakland Pitcher Mike Oquist would post the lowest modern day Game Score of -21.

At the end of July, the sim Freak Show continued to hold down 4th place with a 52-57 record (I had a double header, hence why there are 109 games played). The real life Freak Show? Well, 2nd place with a 53-55 record. Again, the simulation season was attempting to emulate real life in all but a divisional race. Interestingly enough, in 1997 Jon Lieber only won 11 games, but by this date in the simulation, he led the team with 12 wins! Tony Womack continued to lead the team in batting average with a .298 mark. At this point, hope for a divisional win and/or playoff berth in the simulation was looking pretty dim.

Some noted trade deadline deals in real life 1997 included Mark McGwire to the Cardinals and Seattle trading Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe to the BoSox for Heathcliff Slocumb. In the simulation world, the Rockies dealt Larry Walker to the Cardinals (in the midst of a divisional race…) for minor leaguers, while the Giants moved some guy named Barry Bonds across the bay to the Oakland Athletics. Baseball is weird, even in the simulation world.

At this point things began to turn. On August 8, the simulation Pirates moved above .500 for the first time at 59-58 and in 3rd place. In 1997, the Freak Show was still in 2nd place, but with a 57-59 record. By the end of August, the simulation Pirates were far outpacing the real life Pirates, but the rest of the division was mixed up too. On August 31, 1997, the Pirates’ record was 68-69, but they were in 2nd place; my simulation Freak Show held 3rd place, but sported a 74-63 record. In the simulation, Kevin Young took home National League batter of the month, while Rincon took home National League pitcher of the month. Simulation Kevin Young would go on to lead the National League in RBIs with 129. Real life Kevin Young finished the season with 74.

By September 10, 1997 the Freak Show Pittsburgh Pirates had amassed a record of 70-76, and were STILL in 2nd place behind Houston in the National League Central. My simulation Freak Show won their 79th game on September 10, 1997, were 6.5 games off of the 1st place Reds, but had far outpaced the Astros.

On September 17, 1997 (by way of 2014), some simulation Pirates had solid statistical seasons in place: Jon Lieber, Francisco Cordova, and Jason Schmidt were 14, 13, and 12 game winners respectively. More importantly, on that day the simulation Pirates did what no Pirates team from 1993-2012 could do: they won their 81st game, ensuring that, in an alternate universe, there would never be a reason to mention that ignominious 21 year losing streak. But then it got wierd.

The simulation Pirates would go on to finish with an 83-79 record (I kid you not), but would miss the playoffs by finishing 13 games back in the Division and Wildcard. To add to that, they finished 4th, TIED with the Houston Astros. The Cardinals, led by National League batting champion, Larry Walker, finished 1st.

Here is a screenshot of the final batting statistics:

Here is a screenshot of the final pitching statistics:

V. Conclusion

The 1997 Atlanta Braves were probably on their way to the World Series, but were beaten in 6 games in the NLCS by the upstart Florida Marlins, including a controversial and pivotal Game 5. In simulation world, the Atlanta Braves ended up winning the 1997 World Series in 5 games, besting the Baltimore Orioles. The real life American League Champion Cleveland Indians were ousted 3-2 in the Divisional Series. Happily, both the American and National League Rookie of the Year awards went to their real-life winners, Nomar Garciaparra and Scott Rolen respectively. In both universes, Larry Walker took home NL MVP honors, albeit with different teams.

So, the revisionist history is complete! I succeeded in preventing the Pirates from having 21 losing seasons! I didn’t have to trade for any expensive players, nor did I sign any big name free agents. Does this prove that the real life 1997 Pirates should have won 81+ games? No. It merely serves as the closest I could get to proving that the Freak Show was indeed special in its own way and that it COULD HAVE won 81+ games, despite being a real life incarnation of the movie “Major League.”

-Christopher Bradley

Stat of the Day: Tony Gwynn‘s longest actual hitting streak was 25 games. In this particular simulation, Tony Gwynn racked up a 36 gamer.