For the last few years, I've written a piece in which I make 20 predictions about the Bills season and then check to see how I did at the end of the season. Well, it is the end of the season so let's get to it…
1) How many games will the Bills win? 4. Yes, this is a pretty crappy number, but realistically this isn't a good football team. I just think they have too many new parts to their game with a rookie QB, coach and offensive coordinator. Factor in their secondary being a tire fire and how the team has so many unproven parts, and you have a recipe for a disaster. The Bills are one of the youngest teams in the NFL and when Stevie Johnson is your 4th longest tenured player, it should tell you something about how much transition is going on here. I've said this before, if EJ Manuel or a few younger guys show flashes of being legit down the road, that's what you have to take in order for a 4-12 season to be a success. Pretty much what Carolina did during Cam Newton's rookie year.
Real answer: 6 I think most fans had the Bills winning between 4 and 6 games. I did think they were going to be awful this year because of the new coaching staff and the number of rookies on the roster. But they were kind of respectable. They exceeded my August expectations. Hooray for lowering one's own standards!
2) Who will the Bills beat? Jets (twice), Dolphins, and the Jags. Although the Bills are only facing four teams with an above .500 record from last year, I just don't see them beating decent teams. Teams like the Panthers, Chiefs, Steelers, and Saints all seem to be on the rebound or are on the cusp of becoming good. Yes, I have the Bills sweeping the Jets, mainly because they are way worse. Also, I happen to be going to the game at Met Life Stadium, so, I'm pleading for a win there. I'm also doing my yearly "We always seem to split games against Miami" prediction. As for the Jags, they don't seem to have made much improvement this offseason besides new uniforms and a new coach.
Real answer: Dolphins (twice), Ravens, Panthers, Jags, and Jets Well, I got three right. I would have fainted at the start of the season if you had told me the Bills would beat the reigning Super Bowl Champions. Carolina, that I could have seen happening because they were coming off a mediocre year. But not the World Champs.
3) Will Stevie Johnson have over 70 catches? No. I have a bad feeling about Stevie this year. I just think having a rookie QB and a inexperienced WR cast around him is going to hurt him. You can usually check Stevie at 75-80 catches. But consider this…Of the last 15 rookie QBs to start at least 10 games (Since 2007), only Reggie Wayne, Brian Hartline, Danny Amendola, Roddy White, and Steve Smith caught more than 70 passes. As much as people talk about how good RGIII, Wilson and Flacco were as rookies, none of their WRs had over 70 catches. Maybe Stevie can be what Hartline was for Miami last year, but I just think EJ is more of a project than most folks are letting on. I think Stevie gets 65 catches.
Real answer: No. Had 52 catches. Would Stevie have broken 70 catches if he didn't miss 4 games due to injury and his mother's death? The numbers say yesby a nose if you go by basic math, but he was so inconsistent in the games he played that it is not a given. He had five games in which he had 3 catchers or fewer. On top of that, he started the season hot, grabbing 17 balls in his first three games but then only had 3 in his next two games.
4) Will CJ Spiller have over 1,500 yards rushing? No. This is a tough one. But you just have to look at it this way..1,500 yards is a very hard accomplishment. Since 2008, that feat has only been accomplished 8 times. So, before we start writing pieces about CJ getting 2,000 yards (See: Bills.com), just realize that just getting over 1,500 yards is a major accomplishment. So, why don't I see this happening? Fred Jackson is one option. I know that some don't wanna see him hit the field, but I don't think the Bills are going to let him just waste away on the sidelines. Of the 8 times a RB went over 1,500 yards, only Carolina with De'Angelo Williams (1,500) and Jonathan Stewart (800) had a running back by committee approach. Everyone else was solo.
Another reason has to do with teams loading up in the box and not respecting the Bills ability to throw. Lastly, and this is the biggest one..The defense. It is football 101 to know that if you can't stop opposing offenses, your offense is going to have to throw more because they will be from behind. In the last three years, Maurice Jones-Drew and Adrian Peterson went over 1,500 yards without any sort of consistent QB play. Why? Because their defenses were ranked 11th and 13th in points given up. The Bills would have to be in that 10-15 range IMO to get CJ to 1,500. Hey, 1,450 or so, isn't a bad year.
Real answer: No. Got 927 yards. Yeah, I should have gone with the 1,000 yards as an over/under, but then you would have thought I was nuts. As I said in my season review, injuries, the offensive line, and Fred Jackson's play all contributed to Spiller getting less than 1,000 yards. He still showed some flashes of greatness when he played, but in six of his starts, the guy had less than 44 yards rushing and averaged 1.75 yards a carry. Woof.
5) Who will be the Bills rookie of the year? Kiko Alonso. Yeah, I'm going a bit against the grain with this one. I just think rookie LBs who are picked within the first two rounds and are penciled in to start, are on the high rise when it comes to rookie accolades. Consider that since 2000, 10 defensive rookie of the year award winners were LBs. Six of them weren't your traditionally OLB who would get tons of sacks either. They were guys who would get you a shit load of tackles. I think the quality of the DL in front of Alonso will pay huge dividends for him.
Real answer: Kiko Alonso Yeah, I knocked this out of the park. Kiko was the Bills best defensive rookie since Sam Cowart in 1998. He was all over the ball and was in the top 5 in tackles, INTs, and stops for ILBs in the league. No rookie on the team comes close to it.
6) Will EJ Manuel pass for over 20TDs? No. From 2002-2010, no rookie QB threw for over 20TDs in a season. In the last two seasons, that number went to five. I'm going with the 2000s instead of the latest trend. I don't know what EJ's numbers will be, but I just see more of a project guy than someone who will put up 20-25TDs. I think 17TDs and 15 Picks are doable.
Real answer: No. 11TDs. Obviously, injuries were a factor in this, but if he had played every game at a similar pace, EJ's numbers would have come under 20 and right at that 17 TD mark I picked. As a whole, the Bills QBs threw for 16 TDs and 15 INTs on the season.
7) Who will be the Bills 2nd leading receiver? CJ Spiller. I've gone back and forth on this one. It came down to CJ or Robert Woods. Woods is coming from a pro style offense where he looks to be your prototypical NFL receiver. Even if you look at Marrone's time at Syracuse, most of the WRs got in on the passing game rather than backs catching the ball out of the backfield. However, I think with CJ Spiller being your best offensive player and someone who can catch the ball out of the backfield, makes it a bigger factor. Plus, rookie QBs are always known for check downs which should help make Spiller a top PPR player in fantasy leagues everywhere.
Real answer: Stevie Johnson Yeah, I got blown away on this one. It wasn't about Stevie or Scott Chandler as much it was about how CJ and the Bills passing game with RBs seemed out of sync this year. CJ's 5.5 yards per reception didn't even crack the top 60 for running backs. Last year, CJ's 10.7 yards per reception was in the top 10 for running backs. It just didn't really work for him or the screen game this year..
8) Will the Bills give up more than 30 sacks? No. That was the number of sacks the Bills gave up last year. While we can beat down Chan Gailey until he's blue in the face, one of the best things he did while being with the Bills was the way he fixed the offensive line. Yes, I'm putting his system in the forefront of rebuilding the line rather than the players. It was quite simple: Quick passes, means fewer sacks. That was Gailey's MO. Now with Marrone here, he's bringing in a variation of the west coast offense, which any football fan knows that getting the ball fast is their bread and butter. In terms of systems, last year under Marrone, Ryan Nassib only got sacked once every 29 times. That's a hell of a ratio. As for EJ Manuel, he was sacked once every 15 drop backs, which is still very good. Lastly, and I think this is the more important stat, I think the Bills are gonna run the ball a hell of a lot more than they passed the last few years. As document on here before, the Orangemen had almost a 50/50 run/pass ratio over the last two seasons.
Real answer: Yes. 48. Woof. I got killed on this one. The Bills allowed the most sacks as a team since 2003. It is strange because there were moments the line looked good in pass protection. In 6 of EJ's 10 starts, he was sacked two times or fewer. However, he was still sacked 28 times in his 10 starts, 15 of those coming in two games against the Bucs and Jets. As for Thad, pocket awareness was his biggest problem as he was sacked four times or more in four of his five starts. At least Jeff Tuel wasn't sacked in his start against KC. The line as a whole would best be described as inconsistent this season.
9) Which game will I be the most drunk at? New England at Buffalo. I'm normally not the type of fan to get wasted during games. Most of it has to do with me wanting to remember the game and not the hangover. However, I'm going to the home opener for the first time since 2000. Over the last 11 years since I've been gone from Buffalo, I normally attend the season finale for like 10 bucks and get to freeze my ass off while watching Brian Brohm take on Jim Sorgi. It wasn't fun. I couldn't really drink much because it was just too damn cold out. The weather should be great for this one, the team isn't out of playoff contention, and we won't have to watch a backup QB play.
Real answer: Carolina vs Buffalo I lost my eye glasses and dignity in the cab ride home from McFaddens. Enough said.
10) What will be the most exciting game this season? New England/Buffalo. As badly as the Pats have crushed the Bills dreams over the last 12 years, you can always count on at least 1 game being the most exciting between them. The Bills finished 4-12 and lost 38-30 against NE. The Bills were a TD pass away from upsetting the Pats last year in New England. There's the Holcomb/Bruschi Sunday night game. The McKelvin fumble game. Yes, most of these games turn out like crap for us, but there's always one game against these guys that turns out to be a highlight reel type of game for the fans. I'm going with that.
Real answer: Carolina vs. Buffalo Well, there's the reason I was so drunk. All kidding aside, that was the most exciting game this season. The home opener was pretty cool as well, but winning is where the apex of excitement comes from, right?
11) Will Mario Williams get over 10.5 sacks? No. I've gone over in great details previously about how Mario Williams is a very streaky player. Sure, we can easily blame the injury to his wrist last for his subpar 1st half, but I just think it was more about his streaky play than a guy battling injuries. Now, we all know by now what Pettine plans on doing. It is pretty much attack, attack, attack, attack. However, QB pressures are obviously different from sacks. And that's what people have to realize. From 2009-2013, the Jets never had a player get more than 10 sacks in a season. In fact, only one player had 8 sacks on that team. As for Mario, he's only eclipsed 10.5 sacks or more, twice. I'm thinking he gets around 8-10. No more.
Real answer: Yes. 13. Well, he eclipsed 10.5 sacks by the end of week 7 so,I got blown away on that. It is pretty amazing though that in Mario's last 8 games, he only had 2 sacks. Like I said above, the guy is streaky… but that has nothing to do with mini-fridges, engagement rings, heart or photos of guns on Instagram like some lamestreamers would like you to believe.
12) Who will be 2nd on the team in sacks? Manny Lawson. No, this isn't a joke. Really, it isn't. While a lot of folks want to make a big deal about the front four or the hybrid, I think what most have to realize that under Pettine, the Jets got a majority of their sacks from OLBs, not from their DEs or DTs. Now, they still played the hybrid and used a lot of different fronts, mostly 3-4, but I think if you are standing up as an OLB, you have a great shot to get to the QB in this system. So, I'm picking Lawson, who actually has the 2nd most sacks for a season on the Bills next to Mario Williams (6.5 in 2009). If my theory dies, look for Marcell Dareus to get the title.
Real answer: Kyle Williams Jesus H. Christ. I got killed on this one. Lawson was 5th on the team in sacks behind Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Jerry Hughes, and Marcell Dareus. I think Nickell Robey had more sacks at this point. At least Lawson was great in supporting the run and covering backs out of the backfield.
13) What will be the worst game this year? Atlanta/Buffalo. Normally, I'd probably hang this up on the classic Thursday night tilt between the Browns and Bills, which I'm willing to be bet we'll get a ton of snark about how the NFL Network would be better served to air reruns of the Chicago Bears 1957 season. However, I think when you factor in this game being in Toronto and the Falcons arguably being the best team on the Bills schedule, to quote Star Wars…"I have a bad feeling about this." On a sidenote, the Bills are 1-4 in Toronto games and have been outscored 107 to 75 and hold a 1-4 record. Something tells me that we won't be closing the gap on that score after this one.
Real answer: Tampa Bay My initial answer to this question was based on how badly the Bills would play. Obviously, if it was about the most painful, boring #becauseitsbuffalo loss, this game and the Chiefs game would be the winners. However, it was about a shitty showing and I think against Tampa Bay, the Bills had their worst showing of the season. Getting blown out by like 3TDs against a team that fired their coach is pretty bad.
14) Which Bills will make the Pro Bowl? CJ Spiller. Yeah, that's what I got. I just think that everyone knows about Spiller now, especially since Fantasy football nuts know everything about him. Remember at this time last year, he was the 2nd guy behind Fred. I think fans will start stuffing the ballot for him. As for guys like Byrd and Kyle Williams? I think with the defense being so new, there will be some growing pains for them.
Real answer: Byrd, Mario, and Kyle Williams Yeah, I think anyone who talked about Spiller being like OJ or even being the Travis Henry of this season was going to wake up with egg on their face. The new defensive scheme didn't hinder Byrd/Williams. In fact, it made them better.
15) Who will be the fans whipping boy this year? Leodis McKelvin. You can already cue up every wise ass on Twitter tweeting out "There's our 5-million dollar CB!" when McKelvin gets burned. There aren't many people who were on board with this signing to begin with, especially since it seems like he'll be our #1 CB until Stephon Gilmore gets better. It is going to be ugly this year for Leodis.
Real answer: Justin Rogers I was close to going with C. Brown on this one, but shortcomings from CBs are easier to view than that of a guard. Plus, Rogers was kind of a whipping boy last year and that bled into this season. I also could have gone with Stevie, but whipping boy to me is about everyone hating a guy – think Maybin – and he wasn't close to being hated by the entire fan base. Oh, and I'm fine with McKelvin as a #2 CB.
16) Who will be the most improved player? Marcell Dareus. I've written about how he went through a ton of crap last year. Overall, he went through a pretty bad season, on and off of it. This is the magical 3rd year for Dareus and I think the time is now that he really puts it into 5th gear. I see talent there as he was ranked 11th in QB hits and 4th in sacks for defensive tackles. However, he was only ranked 37th in tackles for losses at the position. That stat needs to go up. DTs main objective is to disrupt the line of scrimmage to get their LBs freed up to make tackles and to make plays stopping the run. I'm just picking Dareus because the time is now for him.
Real answer: Aaron Williams Dareus was close here, but when you consider how bad Aaron Williams was last year as a CB and how he became a pretty decent safety this year, you gotta give him the nod. The Bills were much better with covering TEs this year (they gave up less than 4 catches and 40 yards a game to them) and I didn't want to kill Aaron Williams at all this season. I guess his hips were a big factor in being a shitty CB like the experts said.
17) How many TDs will Fred Jackson have? 7. That may seem like a lot, but there have been reports that Jackson has beefed up a bit this offseason. I think it would only make sense to use Jackson in goal line situations over Spiller. He's just a tougher runner between the tackles.
Real answer: 9 Damn. I thought I overprojected back in August. Guess not. CJ Spiller wasn't used nearly enough in goal line situations. Jackson had 30 carries inside the opposing 10-yard line while Spiller only had five carries. 9 TDs to 2 TDs. That is why fantasy football owners cursed CJ Spiller.
18) Who will lead the Bills in INTs? Leodis McKelvin. WHAT?! How could you put Leodis on such a fan pleasing stat when you have him as the scapegoat? Simple: He's going to be the guy the opposition will pick on most. Also, if you look at the Jets' defense over the years, their CBs are the ones who get the picks, not their safeties. Since 2009, the Jets CBs have accounted for 35 INTs while their safeties have accounted for just 14. In fact, their LBs have almost as many picks as their safeties do. So, why is that the case? A lot of it has to do with their safeties playing close to the line of scrimmage and in the box. I would have voted for Gilmore here if he didn't get hurt. So, I'm going with the 2nd CB. BTW, during Pettine's years, the Jets ranked 24th, 11th, 25th and 13th in picks. Surprisingly, the Bills were better in that category 3 out of 4 years. The Jets didn't get picks. They got tons of pressure, but the majority of their stellar play doesn't appear in the box score.
Real answer: Byrd, Leonhard, Aaron Williams, and Alonso were tied with the team lead. Yeah, I'm never going to try and outthink myself again. McKelvin had only one INT this season. For crap sakes, the guy with a foot problem who held out and the other guy we picked up before the opener had 4 times as many picks.
19) Who will be the Bills biggest surprise? Alex Carrington. Alright, I'm gonna drink the Kool-Aid for this one. A lot of folks seem to be high on Carrington because when he gets on the field, he actually makes plays. According to Advanced Stats, he had the 17th most tackles for losses (7) by DTs. That's better than Dareus and only 2 behind Kyle Williams. Anyways, he's penciled in to start this year, so, you have to hope he'll make more plays when given more opportunities.
Real answer: Jerry Hughes Could have gone with McKelvin/Aaron Williams, but I think when you trade for a 1st round pick who was a bust in Indy and he supplies 10 sacks, that's quite a surprise. I just think that, from that trio, his impact was bigger. As for Carrington, injuries cut his season short and that's that.
20) Will Goodwin, Graham and Woods have over 110 catches? No. Do the math and that's about 36 catches for each guy. I had it in my WR football preview that the average catches for rookies drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round are 22 and 17 over the last decade. Obviously, some of those guys probably couldn't get on the field because of guys being ahead of them or not being asked to start. I think Woods will get 40-45 grabs, Graham will get 35 and I'm not expecting much from Goodwin. I think he'll be lucky to break 20, as I think he's still raw to begin with.
Real answer: 80. 40 for Woods, 23 for Graham, and 17 for Goodwin Maybe I set the number too high, but is it really that much to ask for 3 guys to average 37 catches each? I don't think so. Woods was what I thought he would be. Same goes for Goodwin. Going by my prediction, Graham underachieved. If anything, I thought what hindered the Bills offense this season was that they could never get 2-3 of their WRs going for one game. Woods would have a good game, but Stevie wouldn't. Goodwin was awesome against the Jets, but then Graham had like two grabs for 2nd. Then Goodwin would disappear for a month. The Bills had just one 100-yard game by a WR (Stevie against Carolina).
Final word: Yeah, I'm not exactly predicting a watershed year for the Bills. I actually really struggled to get them to 4 wins. This year feels a lot like 2010 and 2001. Just a complete overhaul on personnel and coaches with some guys who can play. I've said it before, the success of a rebuilding year is all about young individuals making plays and not the actual record.
In 2010, the Bills finished 4-12, but guys like Stevie Johnson and Kyle Williams came into their own. They need a few of those younger guys to kick the door down this year. EJ, Alonso, Gilmore and Dareus taking the next step would be a great start to this regime's takeover.
Real final word: Overall, I went 5 of 20! Damn! That's a fucken terrible score that reminds me of my Earth Science pop quizzes from sophomore year of high school. Injuries were a factor in a few of these and I think I was a lot closer on Fred's TD number than a lot of people were. Also, my win/loss was pretty spot on. Still, I fricken sucked. Manny fucken Lawson?!
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