Ridley’s College Football Rankings – Week Eight

My, oh my, what a Saturday for college football. In a very unpredictable weekend (more on that in a second), we saw Michigan come within a punt – yes, a punt – of defeating Sparty, one-time world beaters Ole Miss lose in Memphis and Big Ten surprise Iowa make Northwestern’s defense look like they were in D-III.

There were also plenty of other upsets across the board. My normally “heralded” projections, which had correctly picked 71.43% of the games going into this weekend, went a paltry 60.0% during Week 7, a 16% variance from the norm. Now, were all these games truly upsets? No, but it does help illustrate just how volatile the college football landscape can be week to week.

If you’re new to these rankings or need a refresher on how they work, you can find the explanation here.

1. Utah (Record: 6-0; Score: 100.00; Non-AP Rank: 1): The Utes maintained their top ranking with a 16-point victory over the Sun Devils. With the rest of the Pac-12 (minus Stanford) falling into an abyss, the Utes should have a solid shot at going undefeated.
2. Ohio State (7-0; 98.10; 4): Urban Meyer may have solved his quarterback dilemma, which should have the rest of the NCAA very scared.
3. LSU (6-0; 96.98; 2): They don’t always have the prettiest wins or biggest blowouts – in fact their +86 mark in point differential is third-lowest in the top 25 – but their list of opponents is among the best in the country. Amazingly, their schedule only gets harder from here.
4. Baylor (6-0; 96.28; 8): Baylor has outscored their opponents by a cumulative 234 points this season. No other team in the country is above 165. Even with their light schedule, that feat is impressive.
5. Clemson (6-0; 93.11; 7): After having just one road game during the first half of the season (a nail-biter at Louisville), the Tigers will have four of their final six contests on the road, starting this week in Miami.
6. TCU (7-0; 92.50; 12): The Horned Frogs are likely the victim of comparison bias in the polls. One week after K-State took TCU to the wire, Oklahoma blanked Bill Snyder’s team 55-0 in Manhattan. Luckily for the Frogs, they can show the nation who the better team is in a Week 12 showdown in Norman.
7. Michigan State (7-0; 92.47; 6): Fun fact for the week: the six teams ahead of Michigan State have combined for 19 wins by 20 points or more; the Spartans have zero. And let’s not forget the only reason they are in this spot is because Michigan’s punter threw them the game.
8. Alabama (6-1; 91.53; 5): I’m too lazy to do it, but somebody should go back and look at what Nick Saban’s regular season record is following his first loss. It feels like it’s eleventy-billion to two. The man takes the “Fool me once …” proverb to a whole new level.
9. Florida State (6-0; 86.58; 10): After a couple subpar performances, the Seminoles overcame a slow start to beat an improving Louisville team by 20. Next up is a Georgia Tech squad that’s doing anything but improving.
10. Iowa (7-0; 85.93; 3): Kirk Ferentz seems hell-bent on showing just how dumb sportwriters are. The Hawkeyes went from being picked to finish fourth in the West to one of the nation’s Cinderella stories.  With Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State all absent from their schedule, their chances of an undefeated run are looking pretty good.
11. Florida (6-1; 80.43; 13): Although they weren’t quite able to pull off a win against LSU, the Gators have to feel pretty good about being 6-1 facing the second-toughest schedule in the top 40, according to my strength of schedule metric.
12. Stanford (5-1; 79.69; 15): Since scoring just six points against Northwestern, the Cardinal have seen their weekly point total increase each game, including this week when they scored a season-high 56 points in an easy win against UCLA.
13. Notre Dame (6-1; 78.16; 21): The Irish head to a bye week before they face ranked opponents in Temple and Pittsburgh (no, this is not a misprint).
14. Memphis (6-0; 76.10; 11): I know I picked Memphis to cover the 10.5-point spread, but I didn’t honestly expect the American Athletic Conference upstart (and owner of a 22-51 record over the last six years) to actually knock off the Rebels. It was their first win against a ranked opponent in 19 seasons. Apparently David does have a few stones left in his belt.
15. Oklahoma State (6-0; 75.79; 16): In a rehash of last week’s joke, what is just about as good as a bye? Following it up with a game against the fourth-worst team in the country. If the Pokes can’t find a way to win big against Kansas, I’d start selling immediately.
16. Toledo (6-0; 73.19; 9): Eastern Michigan didn’t produce much of a challenge for the Rockets, which is likely to be the case for most of Toledo’s remaining opponents. Only Northern Illinois and Bowling Green stand as possible teams that could end the Rockets undefeated hopes.
17. Texas A&M (5-1; 72.66; 18): The spread offense didn’t do much against Nick Saban’s defense. Let’s hope it has better luck against a Rebels D that is allowing over 37 points per game to teams with winning records.
18. Michigan (5-2; 72.19; 20): The only solace for Wolverines fans is the hope they take this bitter loss and use it as motivation to improve and eventually stick it to rival Ohio State in the regular season finale.
19. Oklahoma (5-1; 71.53; 19): A 55-point blowout of Kansas State is nice but it still doesn’t erase losing to Texas, given the Longhorns current state.
20. Houston (6-0; 66.80; 17): I can’t believe I’m saying this, but we may be looking at a College Game Day in Houston during Week 11 when the Cougars and Tigers could collide as a pair of 9-0 teams.
21. California (5-1; 65.92; 22): As things stand, the Golden Bears are projected as favorites in five of their final six games. Unfortunately, the one game they’re predicted to lose (at Stanford) is the one they would need to pull in a Pac-12 North crown.
22. Temple (6-0; 65.90; 14): The Owls are currently flying high, but if they want to come out as the Group of Five king, they will need to take down Notre Dame and Memphis. No small task, but certainly not insurmountable.
23. Duke (5-1; 59.60; 27): I must be getting my sports confused, because it’s looking like Week 10’s Duke at North Carolina could be the game that decides the ACC Coastal division.
24. Ole Miss (5-2; 59.16; 23): Where has the high-flying offense we saw the first three weeks of the season gone? They have dropped from 64 PPG in their first three games to 28.25 over their last four. If you take out their game against New Mexico State (the nation’s third-worst team), that number drops to a lowly 20.33.
25. Mississippi State (5-2; 56.70; 26): The Bulldogs are quietly putting together a quality season. Their Point Differential Over Average is ninth in the nation, just a shade behind teams like Utah, Florida and Oklahoma.

AP Teams Who Missed the Cut

Pittsburgh (30) bumped Mississippi State in the AP rankings, but my numbers aren’t as high on the Panthers. They have failed to defeat a winning team and their best game is, arguably, a three-point loss at Iowa. Wins over North Carolina, Notre Dame and Duke would be sure to move them safely into the top 25.

Oregon Teams Update

A six-point win over Washington helped Oregon (52) jump 14 spots. They now stand at 4-3, but their bowl eligibility isn’t a guarantee quite yet. Hopefully they will be able to work out some issues over their bye week and finish the season in a strong manner.

Unlike the Ducks, the Beavers moved into the opposite direction, dropping to 100^th. After their 21-point loss to Washington State, they sit at 2-4 and are projected underdogs in their six remaining games. Hopefully Gary Andersen has some solid recruits lined up for next season.

Other Notable Teams

Western Kentucky (26) missed the top 25 by a hair … Appalachian State (27) is right on their tail for the title of “Best Team You Thought Was in the FCS” … Boise State dropped to 38^th after their non-performance at Utah State … Kentucky fell to 49^th after a tough loss to Auburn … Vanderbilt (86) reclaimed the bottom spot in the SEC … Purdue (109) is the top one-win team … and our Bottom Five for the week are Miami (OH) (124), Kansas, New Mexico State, UCF and North Texas (128), who continues to show there’s nothing “mean” about their Green.