Ridley’s College Football Rankings – Week Eleven

College football is funny. The more we think we know, the less we actually do. Auburn, who looked like they were fated to ride close calls all the way to the playoffs, did almost exactly what Ole Miss did seven days prior by fumbling twice in the final three minutes to blow any chance at winning or forcing overtime. Michigan State, the consensus top team in the Big Ten, got the doors blown off their defense at home by the Buckeyes.

Now the college football playoff picture is cloudier than ever with Ohio State, Arizona State, Baylor and even Nebraska entering the conversation for one of the four spots, along with five other teams who have a legitimate claim. TCU appears to be the darlings of the playoff committee, but may not even win their own conference. The SEC could open up Pandora’s Box if certain situations unfold, leaving the committee in a no-win situation. So which four teams will get the nod? I don’t have the slightest clue. All I can offer you now is the rankings.

If you need a reminder of how the rankings are calculated or what the numbers mean, you can find the explanations here.

The Rankings

1. Mississippi State (9-0) (100.00) [1] – Hopefully the Bulldogs didn’t get too acclimated to the creampuff defense that Tennessee-Martin offered. The challenge the Tide offers will be far tougher.
2. Oregon (9-1) (95.40) [3] – The Ducks rise to the two-spot on the heels of their 24-point victory in Utah. With only the Buffs and the Beavs left on the docket, Oregon looks well on its way to a Pac-12 Championship berth and potential spot in the playoffs.
3. TCU (8-1) (95.07) [2] – This is likely the spot that will get the most flak, but TCU’s resume is impressive. They have defeated four ranked teams in the last six weeks, six of their eight FBS opponents have winning records and their only loss was a last second field goal on the road against a top-10 team.
4. Alabama (8-1) (93.01) [4] – They went into Death Valley and escaped … barely. If I’m a Crimson Tide fan, I’m not feeling too confident about having Blake Sims in when the Bulldogs come calling.
5. Florida State (9-0) (91.76) [7] – The undefeated Seminoles find themselves in fifth thanks to a completely lackluster resume. Five of their nine games have been rated as below-average according to normalized scoring differential.
6. Ole Miss (8-2) (90.29) [5] – Just like last week, the Rebels lead the two loss teams (and stay ahead of many one-loss teams) because the teams below them would likely have done worse with their schedule. They continue to lead the nation in normalized scoring differential by a healthy margin.
7. Auburn (7-2) (89.14) [6] – Only a five-spot drop for the Tigers, despite losing at home to an unranked foe. Auburn’s playoff chances are now shot, but that doesn’t mean they can’t play spoiler to Georgia and Alabama.
8. Ohio State (8-1) (89.11) [8] – The Buckeyes were the big winners of the weekend. They control their own destiny to the Big Ten Championship, and possibly the playoffs. Tuesday’s unveiling of the new rankings should offer some juicy insight.
9. Baylor (8-1) (88.65) [10] – The Bears were another big victor Saturday. By dispatching the Sooners, Kansas State is the only real threat to prevent them from winning the Big 12. The question is, will it be enough for them to overcome TCU?
10.  Arizona State (8-1) (86.95) [11] – I watched most of the ASU-ND game and came away thinking that Notre Dame lost it more than Arizona State won the game. Regardless, the Sun Devils are 8-1 and have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs if they win out.
11.  Marshall (9-0) (83.10) [9] – The Thundering Herd won’t come up in any conversations about the playoffs, but they can take solace in knowing that if they win out, they will reach one of the top bowls as the highest-ranked “Other Five” team.
12.  Nebraska (8-1) (80.88) [13] – The Cornhuskers continue to quietly lurk in the woods as they go unnoticed. If they can win out against Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Ohio State (a combined 28-8), they will force their way into the conversation.
13.  UCLA (8-2) (79.50) [14] – The Bruins lead the group of teams that are all but eliminated from playoff contention. Their last gasp hinges on Arizona defeating the Sun Devils and key losses coming out of the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12.
14.  Michigan State (7-2) (79.34) [16] – When your defense gives up 49 points and nearly 550 yards at home, you don’t deserve to be in the playoffs.
15.  Kansas State (7-2) (78.63) [17] – The Wildcats also gave up 550 yards of offense, but at least it was on the road, so they have that going for them.
16.  Georgia (7-2) (77.84) [15] – The Bulldogs laid the hammer down on Kentucky as they seemed to rush the ball at will. It doesn’t make up for their loss against Florida, but it’s a start.
17.  LSU (7-3) (77.71) [12] – Mississippi State; Auburn; Alabama. Those are the three teams the Tigers lost to. I think it’s safe to say the eight teams below them would have done the same, likely in worse fashion.
18.  Duke (8-1) (75.01) [19] – Part of me wishes Duke would have beat Miami (FL), just so we could hear all the talking heads shell out reasons why Duke is or isn’t a legitimate contender (by the way, they are not).
19.  Notre Dame (7-2) (74.32) [22] – How bad were the Irish’s miscues Saturday? They skipped shooting themselves in the foot and decided to just go straight for the face.
20.  Clemson (7-2) (73.76) [20] – Against teams that currently have a winning record, the Tigers are just 2-2 and have been outscored 98-78.
21.  Arizona (7-2) (73.46) [23] – Outside of their win in Autzen, this team has done nothing but evoke yawns. Just a terribly boring team.
22.  Texas A&M (7-3) (72.66) [18] – The Aggies make the list for the same reason as LSU. While their three losses certainly weren’t pretty – especially the Alabama game – there’s little doubt any team below them would have suffered a similar fate, if not worse.
23.  Wisconsin (7-2) (71.20) [24] – That Northwestern loss continues to look extremely ugly, but they can rectify it with wins over Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota to close out the season.
24.  Colorado State (9-1) (71.06) [21] – The Rams are like TCU. They are the highest-ranked team in their conference, but can only win it if another team (in this case, Boise State) loses again.
25.  Georgia Tech (8-2) (70.10) [25] – Four ACC teams in the top 25? I must be coming down with the flu. The Yellow Jackets break into the rankings thanks to winning their last three by a combined 147-61.

AP Teams That Missed the Cut

Utah (31) was nowhere to be found after getting blown out at home by the Ducks. While it’s not a terrible loss, my rankings believe the three losses Texas A&M has are more justifiable.

Oregon Teams Update

The Ducks climbing to second was covered earlier.  At 9-1, they find themselves just three wins away from securing a playoff bid. On the opposite end of the spectrum are the Beavers (86), who lost at home to the Cougars. The game dropped them to 4-5, and with games against the Sun Devils, Huskies and Ducks remaining, it appears Mike Riley’s group will be home for the holidays.

Other Notable Teams

Boise State (26) is knocking on the door after a comeback win against New Mexico … Missouri (27) and Florida (28) are battling with Georgia for the SEC East crown … Georgia Southern (32) is continuing to dominate the Sun Belt … Memphis (38) leads the American Athletic Conference … Louisiana Tech (37) and Rice (50) give Conference USA three teams in the top 50 … I mention that because Northern Illinois leads the MAC at 51 … Kentucky (62) is still searching for the illusive sixth win …  Vanderbilt (101) fell out of the top 100 as quickly as it joined it … and our Bottom Five for the week are as follows: New Mexico State (124), Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Georgia State and SMU (128), who remains winless after falling to Tulsa, 38-28. Go ‘Stangs!