Everyone rejoice! The dog-days of August are gone and college football is back. Okay, it was back four weeks ago, but who’s counting? I like to think that my rankings are like a fine wine and need time to reach their peak. In all seriousness though, the first two or three weeks are so weighted down by the AP rankings to make up for the lack of game data that my rankings wouldn’t glean any useful knowledge … assuming they do in the first place.
What have we learned in the first four weeks? Ole Miss and Utah look legit; Auburn most certainly is not; Ohio State will have some competition in the Big Ten; and Mark Helfrich may want to start updating his resume as Oregon seems lost without Heisman winner Marcus Mariota.
What we don’t truly know yet is who are the true contenders and who are the pretenders. Is Utah capable of winning the Pac-12 or the National Championship? Can Notre Dame continue to win with a backup quarterback? Who is going to come out of the crowded SEC and will they be good enough to beat Ohio State (or Michigan State)? It’s likely too early to tell, but let’s try anyway.
If you’re new to these rankings or need a refresher on how they work, you can find the explanation here.
Group 1: True Contenders
- Ohio State (Record: 4-0) (Score: 100.00) (Non-AP Rank: 7): We all knew Ohio State had the talent to return to the national championship, but their performance so far has been lackluster. A transition to one full-time starter at QB should help.
- Michigan State (4-0) (96.36) (11): Fellow Big Ten member Michigan State is riding the momentum of their win against Oregon at home, but given the Ducks recent play, that may not prove much in the end.
- Ole Miss (4-0) (95.96) (6): The Rebels are first in the nation in point differential and second Point Differential Over Average (PDOA). They also have the ever-elusive win in Tuscaloosa on their resume.
- TCU (4-0) (91.60) (12): The Horned Frogs will need their defense to start playing better if they want to be in the final four. They’ve allowed 89 points over their last two game.
- LSU (3-0) (90.37) (1): With wins over two ranked teams in their first three games, my rankings have LSU as the best team through the first third of the season. They should be able to coast until Week 10 when they have a date with the Tide in Tuscaloosa.
- UCLA (4-0) (89.68) (4): The Bruins were an early-season favorite to come out of the Pac-12, and so far they haven’t disappointed. They rebounded from a one-point victory over BYU to crush the 16th-ranked Wildcats on the road.
Group 2: Possible Contenders
- Baylor (3-0) (87.21) (18): The Bears are 3-0 and among the nation’s leaders in margin of victory, but when your opponents are SMU, Lamar and Rice, you can’t put too much stock into it. This week’s showdown with a potent Red Raiders offense in Jerry World should give us a better indication of who Art Briles’ team truly is.
- Georgia (4-0) (86.38) (16): The Bulldogs are in a similar position to Baylor, although they do have a strong win over South Carolina. Luckily, the SEC East is a relative cake walk, so even a loss to Alabama on Saturday wouldn’t affect their shots at an SEC title game bid.
- Utah (4-0) (85.80) (3): The Utes brought the hammer down on the Ducks in Eugene in a way that I can’t ever remember happening. The schedule doesn’t let up much as they have a revamped Cal team, the Sun Devils, Trojans and Beavers following their bye.
- Notre Dame (4-0) (83.97) (27): It’s hard to knock winning, especially when you’re doing it with a backup QB, but beating a winless UMass squad by 35 isn’t a sign that they’re free of problems. What may be more telling is they only beat the Cavaliers in Virginia by 7 when BSU just beat that same team in Charlottesville by 42 (also with their backup QB).
- Florida State (3-0) (79.63) (10): The good news: the Seminoles are only allowing 10 points per game. The bad news: the offensive juggernauts they’re slowing down are only averaging 24.5 points in their other games against FBS competition.
- Oklahoma (3-0) (77.73) (2): I haven’t figured out why, but my rankings always love the Sooners early in the season (If you know me, you know this isn’t on purpose as I use the word “Stoops” as a verb to indicate a dumb act). Nonetheless, they have the second-highest opponents’ winning percentage among undefeated teams.
Group 3: Dating a Model (It’s Not Statistically Impossible, But it Certainly isn’t Expected)
- Texas A&M (4-0) (76.13) (8): The win over the Sun Devils isn’t looking as great and the heart of the SEC schedule begins with Mississippi State, Bama and Ole Miss.
- Clemson (3-0) (75.33) (20): That’s the number of wins over FBS foes the Tigers opponents have this year – and it was Appalachian State over Old Dominion. You’ll have to excuse us if we’re not rushing to anoint Dabo Swinney’s crew.
- Alabama (3-1) (74.67) (23): We’ve seen this before, early to mid-season loss that seems to kill the Tide’s title hopes, then a few chips fall their way and all of a sudden they’re back in control. It could definitely happen again this year, but they will have to beat Georgia on the road and LSU at home for it to happen.
- Northwestern (4-0) (70.02) (5): Stanford and Duke were strong wins for the Wildcats but they will need to play better than they did against Ball State if they want to take the Big Ten West crown.
Group 4: Michael Bay Wins an Oscar (Not Happening Unless Something Blows Up)
- Stanford (3-1) (59.64) (33): Strong wins against UCLA, Cal and Notre Dame could possibly propel the Cardinal to the top four, but it’s not likely.
- USC (3-1) (58.47) (38): Despite losing to Stanford at home, USC is in a better position with road games against the Irish and Golden Bears, plus home dates against Utah and UCLA.
- West Virginia (3-0) (56.26) (9): Come back next week after the Mountaineers face the Sooners.
- Wisconsin (3-1) (55.43) (28): The Badgers remaining slate doesn’t offer enough competition to climb up 16 spots.
- Florida (4-0) (54.37) (13): Their last three games have been decided by a combined 13 points. I don’t expect them to beat Ole Miss, LSU, Georgia and Florida State, let alone all of them.
- Oklahoma State (4-0) (52.85) (32): Only beating a bad Texas team by three points is cause for concern. With four ranked opponents remaining, the Pokes have probably reached this season’s apex.
- California (4-0) (51.48) (22): Four wins is great for a team that only won five games last year, but their schedule gets exceedingly more difficult going forward.
- Michigan (3-1) (50.57) (31): Their loss against Utah is gaining credibility but it will take a win against the Buckeyes – along with a few other minor miracle – for the Wolverines to crack the top four.
Group 5: HA!
- Toledo (3-0) (50.41) (17): I have nothing against Toledo and personally hope they run the table, but there is absolutely NO CHANCE that the playoff committee lets a MAC team in whose best win will be against an SEC team that finishes 4-8.
Teams Ranked in the AP that Missed the Cut
Mississippi State was the lone team from the AP Top 25 to miss the cut this week. The Bulldogs came in at 27th with a score of 48.98. A win against the Aggies in College Station on Saturday will move Hail State into the top 25 and then some.
Oregon Outlook
After a great run with Heisman winner Marcus Mariota, the Ducks (59) have come back to earth and sit at 2-2 following their 42-point beatdown by Utah. With only one conference loss, they can climb their way back into contention for the Pac-12 North title, but their shot at reaching the final four is gone.
Matters aren’t much better in Corvallis, where the Beavers (78), also 2-2, were just disposed of by Stanford at home. Couple that with a 28-point loss to Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines and the view doesn’t look too great. The Beavers will have to win at Wazzou, against Colorado and Washington and pull an upset just to become bowl eligible.
Other Notables
NC State(26) just missed the top 25 … Temple is leading the AAC at 29 … Kentucky is up to 37 after their win against Missouri … Conference USA is led by Western Kentucky (42) … Boise State tops the Mountain West at a paltry 47 (behind five AAC teams) … Appalachian State (52) and Georgia Southern are in a … um, heated battle for Sun Belt supremacy … Vanderbilt (90) is once again the SEC doormat … and UMass (119) is the best winless team. Our bottom five for the week are New Mexico State (124), Kansas, North Texas, UCF and Wyoming (128).
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