Ridley’s College Football Rankings – Week Nine

In a weekend with mostly expected results, one game sticks out above the rest. Just like Les Miles had said in 2012, Death Valley truly is the place where opponents’ dreams come to die. This time those dreams belonged to Ole Miss. The Tigers smothered the Rebels offense, holding them to just 313 yards and seven points, despite the LSU offense turning the ball over four times. The loss doesn’t completely eliminate Hugh Freeze’s group from playoff contention, but with games remaining against Auburn, Arkansas and Mississippi State, they find themselves with their backs against the wall.

If you need a reminder of how the rankings are calculated or what the numbers mean, you can find the explanations here. I have also included win-loss records to help clarify the picture.

The Rankings

1. Mississippi State (7-0) (100.00) [1] – Dak Prescott and company narrowly avoided an upset at the hands of the Wildcats thanks to an onside kick recovered for a touchdown and Josh Robinson’s submission for Run of the Year.
2. Auburn (6-1) (89.48) [3] – Like the Bulldogs above them, the Tigers had to overcome an upstart opponent as South Carolina gave Auburn all they could handle. Things won’t be any easier when they travel this week to play a ticked off Ole Miss squad.
3. Florida State (7-0) (88.13) [4] – The Seminoles had a bye after squeaking past Notre Dame. This week they face a Louisville team that has their eyes set on their first big ACC win.
4. Ole Miss (7-1) (87.91) [2] – If the season ended today, I would put Ole Miss in the playoffs. Losing to LSU in Death Valley is nothing to be ashamed of and the Rebels lead the nation in normalized scoring differential.
5. Alabama (7-1) (87.05) [5] – The Tide raced out to a 27-0 lead in the first 18 minutes before the Vols climbed back to make the score a little more respectable. They now get to rest before they attempt to do what Ole Miss could not — beat the Tigers at Death Valley.
6. Oregon (7-1) (84.53) [8] – Marcus Mariota continues to lead the high-powered Ducks offense, but it is almost out of necessity. Oregon has allowed 30 points or more in three of their four conference games.
7. TCU (6-1) (80.68) [7] – Speaking of high-powered offenses, the Horned Frogs hung 82 (yes, 82!) on the Red Raiders, setting a Big 12 record for points in a conference match-up. They will hope for a repeat performance against a surprising West Virginia team.
8. Michigan State (7-1) (80.22) [10] – Sparty easily dispatched of the Wolverines to take home the Paul Bunyan trophy for the sixth time in seven years. Now they have a week to rest before they host the Buckeyes in the de facto Big Ten East championship.
9. Georgia (6-1) (78.75) [11] – The Dawgs were on a bye week. They play the Gators at EverBank Field on Saturday as they continue to eye an SEC Championship Game berth.
10.  Notre Dame (6-1) (78.74) [15] – The Irishmen also had the week off following their loss to the Seminoles. Brian Kelly’s team knows it must win in convincing fashion for the rest of the season if it hopes to crash the playoffs.
11.  LSU (7-2) (75.71) [9] – The Tigers are the highest two-loss team by a mile thanks to owning one of the toughest schedules in the nation.
12.  Kansas State (6-1) (75.41) [13] – Bill Snyder’s team rose three spots in my raw rankings after handing the Longhorns their first shutout in 10 years. The win marks just the second time in 87 years the Wildcats have defeated Texas and Oklahoma in the same season.
13.  Ohio State (6-1) (73.76) [14] – The Buckeyes needed two overtimes to get past a pesky Penn State team. They face the Illini this week in a tune-up for their big battle against Michigan State.
14.  Baylor (6-1) (72.86) [17] – Another ranked team on a bye. The Bears play Kansas this Saturday as they look to return to their winning ways.
15.  Arizona (6-1) (72.63) [16] – The Wildcats are a tough team to trust as they have just the 30^th-ranked scoring differential in the FBS.
16.  Nebraska (7-1) (71.78) [12] – Ameer Abdullah set the Cornhuskers’ record for all-purpose yards as Nebraska coasted by Rutgers. The perpetually downtrodden Boilermakers are up next.
17.  Marshall (8-0) (71.72) [6] – The Thundering Herd own the best scoring differential in the FBS. Before you go pointing out they are in Conference USA, you should recognize their normalized scoring differential is sixth.
18.  Arizona State (6-1) (70.76) [19] – Like their in-state counterparts, the Sun Devils have a suspiciously low scoring differential. Hosting the Utes this weekend should shed some light on their credibility.
19.  Utah (6-1) (67.82) [21] – Utah was able to sneak past USC by scoring the go-ahead touchdown with eight seconds left. They will need a better performance to get past the Sun Devils unscathed.
20.  West Virginia (6-2) (66.97) [18] – The Mountaineers went into Stillwater and controlled the game from start to finish. Dana Holgorsen’s team will need an equally strong performance when they host TCU on Saturday.
21.  Clemson (6-2) (65.42) [20] – The normally explosive Tigers have been winning with defense lately — allowing only 26 points in their previous four contests.
22.  Oklahoma (5-2) (63.74) [24] – The Sooners are allowing nearly 32 points per game over their last five after allowing a paltry 11 points per game in their first three.
23.  Duke (6-1) (61.47) [23] – The Blue Devils wiggle into the rankings for the first time this year after beating the Yellow Jackets and Cavaliers in back-to-back weeks. They get to celebrate the accomplishment with a bye.
24.  UCLA (6-2) (60.75) [22] – The Bruins mettle was tested against a Buffaloes team that owns just two wins. The same poor performance will likely spell disaster when they face Arizona.
25.  East Carolina (6-1) (59.59) [31] – The Pirates have been the definition of mediocre, sporting the lowest normalized scoring differential in the top 44 teams.

AP Teams That Missed the Cut

All the teams ranked in the AP made the top 25 this week, with East Carolina narrowly edging out USC (26), who was 25th in my rankings.

Oregon Update

The Ducks were covered up above in the six spot. With the Ole Miss loss, Oregon has one less team to look up at, record-wise, in the chase for the playoffs. The Beavers (62) are moving in the opposite direction. Oregon State fell to Stanford, 38-14, making them 1-3 in conference play. The Golden Bears are up next for the boys out of Corvallis.

Other Notable Teams

Colorado State (27) is 7-1 and atop the Mountain West … Boise State (30) sits three spots behind after beating up on BYU … Georgia Southern (36) leads the Sun Belt thanks in part to rushing for over 600 yards this week … South Carolina, a preseason top 10 team, is down to 46th after losing to Auburn … Tennessee (59) is now the lowest-ranked SEC team not named Vanderbilt … BYU’s fall from grace has landed them at 74 … Vandy (106) is still there to provide wins to other SEC teams … and our Bottom Five for the week are Connecticut (124), Kent State, Georgia State, Troy and SMU (128), still the nation’s only winless team.