Ridley’s College Football Rankings – Week Seven

Welcome back, boys and girls. After a brief interruption last week that resulted in a different format, we are back to our normal setup.

So what did we learn over the weekend? Jim Harbaugh has Michigan playing extremely well; You can never count out Alabama after their first loss; Michigan State enjoys raising the blood pressure of their fans; and Steve Sarkisian has a drinking problem … oh wait, we already knew that.

Okay, before I say anything else that will get me in trouble, let’s move on to the rankings.

If you’re new to these rankings or need a refresher on how they work, you can find the explanation here. I’ve also incorporated my picks against the spread using my formula mentioned last week.

1. Utah (Record: 5-0; Score: 100.00; Non-AP Rank: 1): Bolstered by wins over the Golden Bears, Ducks and the rising Wolverines, the Utes claim the NCAAs best resume through six weeks. Their opponent winning percentage of 58.67% is second behind only Michigan in the top 40. (Utah -7 over Arizona State)
2. Ohio State (6-0; 97.61; 6): The Buckeyes rollercoaster season continues. Their last five games have seen winnings margins by 38, 7, 26, 7 and 21, respectively. They better be on guard as the Nittany Lions, winners of five straight, roll into the Horseshoe this weekend. (Ohio State -17 over Penn State … but just barely!)
3. Baylor (5-0; 95.51; 12): The Bears continues their domination of the Jayhawks, drubbing them 66-7 in a game they could have easily put up 100. Next up is a Mountaineers squad that just missed pulling off the upset of the then 21^st ranked Cowboys. (West Virginia +21.5 over Baylor)
4. TCU (6-0; 94.98; 10): Gary Patterson’s team once-more staved off an upset thanks to the heroics of Heisman-contender Trevone Boykin, who led the Horned Frogs back from an 18-point deficit against K-State. Things should be a little easier against a lowly Iowa State unit. (Iowa State +20.5 over TCU, but lookout for the TCU statement game)
5. Clemson (5-0; 94.22; 5): The Tigers are no strangers to early-season hype, but this year, it feels different. They’re currently atop both of Football Outsider’s college football rankings and outside of a scare at Louisville, they have played sound football. With only a home game against FSU left as a serious threat, Dabo Swinney’s main goal will be to keep his team focused. (Boston College +15.5 over Clemson)
6. LSU (5-0; 94.13; 4): Leonard Fournette. That’s all you need to know about LSU is Leonard Fournette. Well, that and they host 8^th-ranked Florida in one of several marquee matchups this weekend. (LSU -7.5 over Florida)
7. Florida (6-0; 93.17; 2): With starting QB Will Grier suspended for the rest of the season, the Gators will have a tough road to travel, starting in the Bayou. (LSU -7.5 over Florida)
8. Texas A&M (5-0; 89.74; 3): The Aggies will hope that their bye provided them the rest and rehabilitation needed to defeat Bama at home this weekend. (Texas A&M +4 over Alabama, although this violates a cardinal rule of betting against Nick Saban)
9. Michigan State (6-0; 88.58; 14): As you will see at the end of this, I have Sparty favored to cover. In fact, I have them as a slight favorite to win outright. This is a prime example where objective analysis clashes with gut feelings. On Saturday, I will either be claiming, “The numbers were right! I knew it!” or “Numbers can’t solve everything. Michigan was obviously the better team!” Stay tuned. (Michigan State +7.5 over Michigan)
10. Alabama (5-1; 85.72; 15): The Sabanites may have lost a crucial game at home to Ole Miss, but they still control their own playoff destiny with matchups against A&M (this weekend) and LSU still to come, not to mention Mississippi State and Auburn (well, sorta). (Texas A&M +4 over Alabama, see thoughts above)
11. Florida State (5-0; 83.91, 11): The Seminoles have been flying under the radar all season, likely something Jimbo Fisher relishes after the media circus the prior two years. Without any wins to note and their only notable game four weeks away, things aren’t likely to change. (Florida State -7 over Louisville)
12. Michigan (5-1; 82.91; 13): With three straight shutouts coming into this weekend, all eyes (even some belonging to the SEC) will be in Ann Arbor Saturday when the Wolverines battle Sparty for the first relevant matchup between the two programs in what seems to be ages. (Michigan State +7.5 over Michigan)
13. Ole Miss (5-1; 76.52; 18): Nothing like finding New Mexico State as your next opponent to help recover from a bad game. The Rebels are now third in the nation in point differential and fifth in Point Differential Over Average (PDOA) following their 49-point thumping. (Memphis +10.5 over Ole Miss)
14. Iowa (6-0; 73.96; 7): I’ve got to be honest; I don’t ever recall writing about Iowa since I started doing my rankings. Good for them! Show them the Big Ten does have decent depth! Hooray relevance! (Iowa -3 over Northwestern)
15. Notre Dame (5-1; 72.71; 26): The Domers are getting a lot of help from the AP in my rankings (approximately 35 percent of the score is based off AP rankings at this point, decreasing each week), but wins over USC and Temple in their next two contests should create a boost in my numbers, too. (Notre Dame -7 over USC)
16. Oklahoma State (6-0; 72.60; 16): Since their 55-point victory over UTSA, the Pokes have won their last three by a combined 12 points. Luckily for them, they have two straight byes coming up – okay, the second is Kansas, but there isn’t much difference. (Bye)
17. Stanford (4-1; 71.19; 23): The win over USC is losing its polish but a solid beatdown of RichRod’s Wildcats helps the Cardinal’s cause. This week’s game against UCLA should give us a good indication of how good Stanford truly is. (Stanford -7 over UCLA)
18. Toledo (5-0; 66.27; 8): Before you dismiss me for having the Rockets this high, hear me out. They have a win over a ranked team (yes, it was Arkansas, but it still counts); they are undefeated (who cares if none of their opponents have a winning record); and they have two 30-plus point victories! Oh, and did I mention they’re undefeated? (Eastern Michigan +29 over Toledo)
19. UCLA (4-1; 65.84; 25): The Bruins had a week to recoup after their letdown against the Sun Devils. Now they get to travel to Palo Alto to take on a hot Cardinal team. (Stanford -7 over UCLA)
20. Northwestern (5-1; 63.61; 20): The bad news: Northwestern’s shot (albeit it VERY long) at going undefeated has ended. The good news: the Wildcats can still become bowl eligible by Halloween. See, now don’t we feel better? (Iowa -3 over Northwestern)
21. Temple (5-0; 62.44; 9): Raise your hand if you had the Owls bowl-eligible by mid-October? That should be the case by Saturday night, when the Owls face the winless UCF Knights. (UCF +21.5 over Temple)
22. Oklahoma (4-1; 61.76; 24): Hot take for the week: Bob Stoops should be fired for his abysmal coaching in the Red River Rivalry. Losing to your rival is bad, but when you lose to them when they are as bad as Texas is this year is cause for termination. (Oklahoma -3 over Kansas State)
23. California (5-1; 59.61; 21): There’s no shame in losing a close one on the road to one of the best teams in the country. This probably doesn’t make anybody in Berkley feel anybody, but it’s the truth. (Bye)
24. Houston (5-0; 58.32; 19): Normally I’m a believer in the old adage “winning is winning is winning,” but the Cougars are doing their best to make me change my mind. Their best win is against my 57^th-ranked team and despite a light schedule, their point differential and PDOA are incredibly average. (Tulane +18 over Houston)
25. Boise State (5-1; 58.31; 29): Since their fourth quarter loss at BYU, the Broncos have won four straight by an average of 45 points, allowing just six points per game in that span. (Utah State +9.5 over Boise State)

AP Teams Who Missed the Cut

Duke (27) was the lone team for the AP top 25 to miss my rankings. They were ousted by undefeated Temple.

Oregon Update

Writing this section is like trying to find the words to console a friend who just lost a loved one. How do you handle the fragile situation without coming across as fake or insensitive? Okay, let’s just put everything out there. Oregon (66) is at their lowest point in a decade. It appears like they haven’t recovered from their non-performance in the Championship Game last year. At this point, the highlight of their season was a three-point loss at Michigan State. Losing to Washington State AT HOME is unfathomable. With games remaining against quality teams like Washington, Stanford, Cal and USC, all of a sudden bowl eligibility is a question.

The same could be said for the Beavers (89), who just got waxed by Arizona. They sit at 2-3 and still road games remaining against Wazzou, Utah, Cal and Oregon. If they manage to go 6-6, Gary Andersen should be voted Pac-12 Coach of the Year.

Honorable Mentions

Memphis (26) just missed out, but can jump plenty of spots with an upset of Ole Miss this weekend … Penn State finds themselves lurking at 28 … Western Kentucky (27) not only leads Conference USA, but is also the highest ranked team in Kentucky, 2 spots ahead of UK (29) … Navy (30) gives the American Athletic Conference 4 teams in the top 30 … Appalachian State (38) is the cream of the Sun Belt crop … USC starts their road to sobriety, err … redemption, at 45 … and Steve Spurrier left the Gamecocks (85) as the worst team in the SEC. Speaking of the worst, our bottom five for this week are: Kansas (124), New Mexico State, Wyoming, UCF and North Texas (128). Keep bringing up that caboose Mean Green!