Sometimes life gets in the way of our passion and interests. Such is the case this week as the time I normally take to write the rankings has been encroached upon by other responsibilities. Because of that, I have ditched my normal format of providing a write-up for each team and instead have supplemented my rankings with formula-driven picks for the games of the top 10 this week.
I came up with this algorithm last year and finished the season correctly predicting 71.9% of the games. If predictions in “pick ‘em” games (where the likelihood of a win is between 50-54.9%) are excluded, this number increases to 74.8%. Of course, choosing the close games is where the true difficulty lies, and in these games I was a paltry 218 out of 356 (61.2%). Nonetheless, the formula has decent success and I’m here to share it. But first, we have to get to the top 25.
If you’re new to these rankings or need a refresher on how they work, you can find the explanation here.
| Rank | Team | Wins | Losses | Non-Ap Rank | Total |
| 1 | Ohio State | 5 | 0 | 9 | 100.00 |
| 2 | Utah | 4 | 0 | 3 | 96.76 |
| 3 | Baylor | 4 | 0 | 12 | 95.72 |
| 4 | TCU | 5 | 0 | 17 | 95.17 |
| 5 | LSU | 4 | 0 | 4 | 95.06 |
| 6 | Clemson | 4 | 0 | 8 | 93.65 |
| 7 | Michigan State | 5 | 0 | 13 | 93.51 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 4 | 0 | 2 | 88.01 |
| 9 | Texas A&M | 5 | 0 | 6 | 87.99 |
| 10 | Florida | 5 | 0 | 1 | 87.32 |
| 11 | Alabama | 4 | 1 | 15 | 85.19 |
| 12 | Florida State | 4 | 0 | 14 | 82.06 |
| 13 | Northwestern | 5 | 0 | 5 | 80.94 |
| 14 | Ole Miss | 4 | 1 | 24 | 73.08 |
| 15 | Stanford | 4 | 1 | 21 | 70.73 |
| 16 | Notre Dame | 4 | 1 | 35 | 67.71 |
| 17 | Michigan | 4 | 1 | 22 | 65.69 |
| 18 | USC | 3 | 1 | 30 | 62.70 |
| 19 | Iowa | 5 | 0 | 11 | 62.65 |
| 20 | Oklahoma State | 5 | 0 | 19 | 61.94 |
| 21 | UCLA | 4 | 1 | 26 | 61.35 |
| 22 | Calfornia | 5 | 0 | 18 | 60.66 |
| 23 | Georgia | 4 | 1 | 32 | 59.95 |
| 24 | Toledo | 4 | 0 | 7 | 59.34 |
| 25 | Temple | 4 | 0 | 10 | 56.00 |
| 51 | Oregon | 3 | 2 | 54 | 41.39 |
| 74 | Oregon State | 2 | 2 | 73 | 32.55 |
Top 10 Matchups
*All spreads are from ESPN as of Tuesday, 10/6
(1) Ohio State (-33.5) vs Maryland: My numbers give Ohio State a 79% chance of victory with an 11.9% chance of covering the spread. Given how they like to keep things close, that percentage may be even lower.
(2) TCU (-9) at Kansas State: The Horned Frogs find a tough matchup against Bill Snyder’s Wildcats. They have a 73% chance of winning and a 48.05% chance of covering the spread.
(3) Baylor (-45) at Kansas: Since 2013, Baylor has won nine games by 45 points or more, including two against Kansas (45 and 46, respectively). So their chance of covering the spread may be slightly better than the 3.42% my numbers give, but not by much. Their chances of winning are probably much higher than the 71% my numbers give them, however.
(4) Michigan State (-15) at Rutgers: The Spartans have been playing with fire. They’ll be on upset alert at they have only a 64% chance of winning and a 21.5% chance of covering the spread.
(5) Utah (-7) vs (23) California: Utah is one of this week’s heavy favorites, having a 94% of winning and a week-high 87.5% chance of covering the spread.
(6) Clemson (-7.5) vs Georgia Tech: The Tigers look to keep their momentum going after a strong win against the Irish. They, like TCU, have a 73% chance of winning and a 48% chance of covering the spread.
(7) LSU (-13.5) at South Carolina: Road games in the SEC are never easy (ask Ole Miss), but my numbers still like the Tigers against the Ol’ Ball Coach, giving them a 71% chance of victory and 41.1% chance of covering.
(8) Alabama (-17) vs Arkansas: Nick Saban’s group has rebounded and now host the inconsistent Razorbacks. They will enter as 79% favorites but their likelihood of covering the spread is only 35.71%.
(10) Oklahoma (-17) vs Texas: With the way Texas has played, any margin of victory is in play, but my numbers only give the Sooners a 26.03% chance of covering the spread to go along with their 71% chance of winning.
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