The Portland Trail Blazers (42-23) were already banged up and trying to find a way to stop their frequent skids and reacquire the winning formula they had in November and December.
The icy and slippery slope they were on just had a bucket of water dumped on it, as they will now have to find ways to win without their captain and one of their key contributors, hopefully in just the short term.
LaMarcus Aldridge, the team’s star player and generally the focal point of the offense, has been reported to miss at least the next two games with a lower back contusion, after taking a nasty fall on the court Wednesday night at San Antonio. There are few players in the league with his dangerous abilities to shoot inside and outside, rebound, and block shots, not to mention that he provides height and length on defense in the post. Unless Meyers Leonard suddenly becomes a productive player (unlikely), Aldridge’s production will be next to impossible to replicate on either side of the ball.
Mo Williams, a likely Sixth Man of the Year candidate, is out for two weeks with a hip strain. While not a starter, he does get the lion’s share of the minutes off the bench and often plays with the starters whenever Damian Lillard or Wesley Matthews need a breather. His veteran experience, outside shooting, and his ability to orchestrate and organize the offense will be missed, and missed more than most probably realize.
Aldridge will miss tonight’s game at New Orleans, and the Blazers’ first home game in nearly two weeks against Golden State on Monday before being re-evaluated; meanwhile, Williams is not likely to be seen on the court for the rest of March.
There is plenty of optimism to be had with who the Blazers have left to man the court, but expectations need to be kept realistic. While some will point to the Blazers going 4-1 without Aldridge in the lineup in February, it should be noted that happened against only two teams likely to make the playoffs, who were also missing key players in the starting lineup. The Blazers simply cannot hope for those same odds this time around. Also, Williams was present for all five of those games, and averaged 14 points and 3 assists per contest, including a 21 point, 7 assist, 6 rebound effort in helping the team to a win over Brooklyn.
The team will not be able to depend on his production off the bench until April, and his season averages of 4 assists and 9 points will not be impossible to replicate, but his ability to hit the outside shot consistently or feed the ball to the right players in the right spots will need to be delegated to someone else.
Aldridge’s 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 1 block per game averages, on the other hand, will be impossible to replicate, by any one man that is. His likely replacement, Thomas Robinson, has been an inconsistent head scratcher whenever he sees an increase in time at forward with Aldridge out. He is equally capable of wowing (18 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 14 points against Minnesota) as he is of disappointing (a combined 8 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 4 points in the games against Utah and Denver before and after his feasting of Minnesota’s depleted frontcourt) and it’s still unclear if he is capable of putting up consistent numbers if he is ever given starting level minutes.
Forward/center Joel Freeland is still out with a knee injury, and it’s unclear if or when he can make a return to the court. For at least the next two games, that will leave the team without Aldridge and only Meyers Leonard, Dorell Wright, and Victor Clavor as the frontcourt reserves behind starters Robin Lopez and Nicolas Batum, with Robinson expected to start and man the four.
In the backcourt, the team has decent depth at shooting guard, but the potential of what depth they have at point remains to be seen. 34 year old Earl Watson is the most likely beneficiary to Williams’ minutes being reallocated, and some will point to his averaging 5 assists and 10 points per game as a starter in Indiana. That was only as recently as five years ago, however, and as a reserve buried on the depth chart behind Williams and Jamaal Tinsley in Utah last season, Watson averaged a much more pedestrian 4 assists and 2 points per game, which are likely to be closer to what you can expect from him in a Blazers’ uniform while Williams is out.
Rookie combo guard C.J. McCollum has shown flashes and is a younger and more realistic option to Watson, and this would be an ideal time to give him some added time on the court with some of the other starters, and the Blazers should absolutely consider giving him the bulk of the minutes that would usually have gone to Williams. He makes as many great plays as he commits missed passes and shots though, but he can hit shots from anyone the team needs so be ready to ride the waves if he sees an uptick in minutes, but the same could be often be said of Williams.
Robinson, Watson, McCollum, and their fellow reserves cannot be reasonably asked to produce around 30 points a game. This will need to be spread out among the four remaining starters and ideally one of the reserves can bring their own averages up.
All is not lost and the team could regain their captain as early as Tuesday morning, but the Blazers need to keep in mind that in their current state, with or without Aldridge and/or Williams in the lineup; they are not guaranteed a playoff spot in the crowded Western Conference, as even the current #8 seed (Dallas) sits just 3 games behind them. Phoenix, one of the surprise teams of the year and slated to get Eric Bledsoe back just before they make their final push, sits just 3 games behind Dallas.
All of that being said, at just 8 wins short of 50, Portland should not only make it to the playoffs, but ideally hold home court advantage in a playoff series.
What they can do if and when they get there, however, remains to be seen, and when Aldridge and Williams return will weigh heavily on that outcome. And until they return, and return at full strength, the Blazers will have to rely on the productivity of their bench to help propel them to victory, which will ideally surprise and impress us all.
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