By signing the $5.5 million qualifying offer, Greg Monroe may be signaling he is ready to move on from Detroit after this season.
Earlier this week, Greg Monroe opted to accept the $5.5 million qualifying offer, per Adrian Wojnarowski, which will keep him with Detroit for one more season and make him an unrestricted free agent next season. Drawn-out attempts to re-sign him long term in Detroit were unsuccessful, despite Stan Van Gundy’s determination to lock Monroe up for the long haul.
Monroe’s decision isn’t all that surprising and likely signals his farewell tour in Detroit. Contract talks dragged on all summer, and while a few sign-and-trade offers were placed on the table (the most notable involving Portland), no significant progress was made on any of them. It appears Monroe, by turning down a lot of guaranteed money, has no intention of committing to the Pistons beyond this season, and while there is a considerable amount of risk not signing a long-term deal, Monroe may be thinking better things await him elsewhere.
His decision is fairly easy to understand. Monroe has had ample ups and downs throughout his young career with Detroit. Despite putting up strong numbers (averaging 15.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game last season), he has yet to make the playoffs and has played for a Detroit team that still appears to be figuring out how to get back to its championship form of nearly a decade ago.
From a personal standpoint, Monroe’s defensive liabilities have been zeroed in on by fans in recent seasons, with some suggesting he will never be an elite big man as long as he can’t play defense. More recently, the signing of Josh Smith has appeared to make him the odd man out, despite a frontcourt of Monroe and Andre Drummond seeming to be a much better fit than one with Smith and Drummond.
For Detroit, Monroe’s QO means another season with three starting-caliber post players that don’t fit well with one another. The Pistons will likely be a better team due to Van Gundy’s coaching ability, but it will be difficult finding a way to run an efficient offense with these three on the floor at the same time. Ultimately, opting not to play them together may be the better option.
Nonetheless, Monroe will play out this season looking to maximize his value for free agency in 2015. A trade is unlikely this season, as the qualifying offer gives Monroe power to veto any trade, for being traded would mean forgoing his Bird rights, which gives him more flexibility in contract negotiations. He will be one of the top free agents available, and teams such as New York, Portland, and dare I say, San Antonio, could be good fits. And look, these are just speculations. New York will have cap space available (and will need to upgrade the frontcourt), Portland has already shown interest so it makes sense they would revisit again, and with San Antonio, as James proposed on the TLM Podcast not long ago, the chance to play for Popovich and alongside Duncan and company (assuming they don’t retire) could work very well. Plus, the Spurs only have one player under contract beyond next season (Tiago Splitter), so the cap space will be there (though much of it will go to extending Kawhi Leonard’s contract).
How much money he will command is uncertain. Because of the bad fit in Detroit, his individual numbers could suffer, potentially lowering his value. At the same time, other teams may recognize the situation he was in and opt to take the chance on him (if the Hornets were willing to offer Gordon Hayward $63 million, anything is possible).
Ultimately, a better fit may be exactly what Monroe needs. His career appears to be stalling in Detroit, as is his appeal as a long-term option for the team. Understand, however, that despite Monroe’s weaknesses on defense, he is one of the better young forwards in the league and still has room to improve. Finding the right fit could vault his career to the next level and make him one of the best players on a playoff team.
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