Writer Robert Judin gives us his 2014 Draft Big Board
1. Joel Embiid C – 19 years old; 7-foot, 240 lbs; Freshman, Kansas
The old mentality is to never pick against a big man. You know, don’t sacrifice height for skill. Of course that worked out “so well” for the Portland Trailblazers — twice. But with Embiid, I really don’t see him falling off the top of the leader board here. Physically, he’s a beast a 7-feet with a 7-foot-5-inch wingspan. What has surprised me is how fluid he is on the court. The guy literally floats like a butterfly and stings like a bee. His per-40-minute stats are 20 points, five blocks and 13 rebounds. I know what you’re thinking. Greg Oden was a “phenom” in high school and college. Why is Embiid different? You can’t use Oden, Sam Bowie or any other failed big man as a reference point because the potential trumps history. Could Embiid be the next Oden? Sure. Could he also be the next Bill Russell? It’s possible. The kid shows touch near the rim and swats shots with reckless abandon. I don’t see how a team passes on the big fella.
NBA Comparison: Andrew Bynum (physically, not mentally)
2. Jabari Parker SF – 18 years old; 6-foot-8, 241 lbs; Freshman, Duke
Before Andrew Wiggins re-classified himself last year, Parker was the clear-cut favorite to be the top pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. Well, now that Wiggins-mania has died down a bit, Parker has re-solidified himself above his counterpart. Parker has shown flashes of brilliance under Coach K at Duke. He’s averaging 19 points a game and shooting 41 percent from deep. Defensively he needs to commit more, averaging about a steal and block a game, but he does pull down about seven boards a contest. He’s lengthy and agile. His mindset is the only obstacle between him and being a lock-down defender. We’ve all seen him put the ball through the iron, but if he wants to be the unanimous choice to go No. 1, he’ll have to do it on both ends.
NBA Comparison: Grant Hill
3. Dante Exum PG/SG – 18 years old; 6-foot-6, 188 lbs; Australia
I feel like many people are hesitant nowadays when it comes to international talent. We’ve seen guys like Andrea Bargnani, Darko Miličić and countless others flop in the NBA. However, we’ve also seen Tony Parker, Nikola Vucevic and many others just… ball out. Exum has risen as the top point guard on my big board, but he’s an interesting case. He has a 6-foot-9-inch wingspan. He can handle the ball like he’s got sticky-tack on his fingers, and he’s more elusive than many would have guessed. With the success that Michael Carter-Williams has had in his infant career, the mold for tall point guard is becoming favored. Of course, Magic Johnson would say, “I did that before it was cool.” But it’s far too early to put Exum on that skill level. He has great vision and can explode to the rim. His shot is hard to contest with his length, but his most impressive feature is his ability to finish at the rim. He’s flashed a respectable floater, which is now a “requirement” to run point in the league. He can play the off-guard position, but with that skill, would you want him to? It depends on the situation.
NBA Comparison: Michael Carter-Williams
4. Andrew Wiggins SF – 18 years old; 6-foot-8, 197 lbs; Freshman, Kansas
It’s hard to believe this would happen, but Wiggins is no longer untouchable. He’s still freakishly athletic. At times, it seems like he has that Space Jam attribute where he can do anything he can think of. I was at the Kansas-Florida game. I saw him commit three turnovers and be held to eight points by a defensive-minded Gators squad. I also saw him explode in the second half with the game on the line. The kid only turned the ball over one more time the rest of the way and finished with 26 points and 11 rebounds. He almost single-handedly won the game for Kansas. He’s a far better shooter than LeBron James was at this age. The only questions I have about Wiggins are centered around his “killer” instinct. He has all the physical tools. I want to see him will his team back when nothing else is going right. I saw him do it in Gainesville, but will he be able to do that with a defender, Wiggins’ size, in his mug? I’m not sure.
NBA Comparison: Tracy McGrady
5. Julius Randle PF – 19 years old; 6-foot-9, 248 lbs; Freshman, Kentucky
Randle rounds out my top-five, but he could easily be the No. 1 pick depending on who’s picking. The guy has a physicality that is monstrous enough to mirror Shaquille O’Neal’s when he left LSU. He throws his body around and keeps his center of gravity low which helps him on the boards. He averages about 17 points and 11 rebounds a game. Randle has the potential to be a franchise big man if he develops. The ball makes a b-line for his hands when it hits iron. Randle isn’t exactly a finesse post player, but if he adds a turn-around jumper to his repertoire, there’s no telling how high he can go. He does need to commit on the defensive end, and Kentucky has struggled getting him to do so. I’m not so sure you can place him on an NBA power forward and say “shut him down.” Randle’s only challenge is locking in on defense.
NBA Comparison: Larry Johnson
6. Marcus Smart PG – 19 years old; 6-foot-4, 200 lbs; Sophomore, Oklahoma State
Smart very easily could have been the No. 2 overall pick last year because the Orlando Magic raved about him. I’ve heard Rob Hennigan and company are still in love with the linebacker-sized point guard. He’s got great instincts and fantastic vision. On a nightly basis, Smart drops about 18 points, five assists and six rebounds. To me, that means triple-double potential. He turns the ball over about three times a game, but that’s nullified with about three steals a game. Would I like to see him drop 15 assists every night? Of course. I’m a traditional point guard guy, but Smart’s team at OSU is limited. If you gave him some weapons around him, I envision a Peyton Manning scenario with Smart dropping dimes left and right. He has good explosion to the rim and can finish with the best. If he works on his spot-up game, he’ll be very dangerous.
NBA Comparison: Jason Kidd
7. Aaron Gordon PF – 19 years old; 6-foot-9, 212 lbs; Freshman, Arizona
Gordon hasn’t put up video game numbers averaging only 12 points and eight rebounds a game, but he has unbelievable talent because he is a stretch forward. He’s remarkably similar to a former Arizona Wildcat, Derrick Williams. Though Williams’ career has been slowed down at the next level, that’s no reason to assume the same will happen for Gordon. He’s big enough to toss down low in the paint and can sneak out to the three-point line to knock down the long ball — contested or not. The best part about Gordon is he can stay on the floor. He averages 30 minutes a game, but he turns the ball over less than two times a game and shoots 50 percent from the field. He may only get 12 points a game, but it’s better to have 12 points a game and shoot 50 percent than 30 points a game on 20 percent. He’s highly efficient which will always translate well to the NBA. By not taking ill advised shots, Gordon can earn coaches’ trust quickly.
NBA Comparison: Antawn Jamison
8. Noah Vonleh PF – 18 years old; 6-foot-10, 242 lbs; Freshman, Indiana
It’s hard to believe Vonleh is so low, but with an all-star caliber crop, that’s just how it goes. Vonhleh is physicality and finesse blended perfectly together. He doesn’t take a lot of threes but hits on more than half of them, making him a miss match on offense. He drops in an efficient 12 points a game on about 55 percent shooting. He’s a rebound away from averaging a double-double. The boy can bang down low and hurt you from outside. He’s a solid post defender but has a lot of room to improve.
NBA Comparison: Kevin Garnett
9. Zach LaVine PG/SG – 18 years old; 6-foot-5, 180 lbs; Freshman, UCLA
A lot of people have been comparing LaVine to Russell Westbrook, a former UCLA Bruin. I think he’s more comfortable as a spot up shooter than Westbrook was. His release is quick enough to rival Klay Thompson’s. He’s averaging about 12 points a game, but like Gordon and Vonleh, it’s an efficient 12 points. He’s shooting above 50 percent from the field and 45 percent from three. He doesn’t turn the ball over often, but he also doesn’t drop a lot of assists. He can create his own shot without a problem, but I want to see him create for others. He has the physical make up to be a good on-ball defender with quick feet and fluid agility. Don’t be surprised if, 10 years from now, he’s the best player form this draft.
NBA Comparison: Kobe Bryant
10. Dario Saric SF/PF – 19 years old; 6-foot-10, 223 lbs; Croatia
Saric could have easily gone into the 2013 draft and been a lottery pick, but he wisely stood in Croatia to season his game another year. He’s a big ball of versatility. He has the height to play down low but can pop out for the occasional jumper, but he needs to improve his consistency with his shot. Saric has excellent vision. ESPN”s Chad Ford refers to him as a “point forward,” which is accurate. Saric is built for the transition game because he is unselfish and can finish, but more importantly, he has a knack for pulling down offensive rebounds. He consistently follows up shots. He isn’t blazing fast, but he glides with the ball and puts it on the money to the cutter. The biggest thing about Saric is his potential. I think he has the potential to be another Dirk Nowitzki, but he’s far from it right now.
NBA Comparison: Hedo Turkoglu
11. James Young SG – 18 years old; 6-foot-7, 202 lbs; Freshman, Kentucky
Young is an interesting player. He’s not the best talent on his team, but he still has a transferable game in the sense he can shoot the three with confidence and precision. Young has already taken 120 threes in just 18 games. He’s shooting 32 percent from behind the arc. He has the awareness to body up smaller defenders, but all in all, he’ll still drift behind the line for the trey. He’ll have to improve both his on-ball and off-ball defense, and a mid-range jumper would be a nice trick to have up his sleeve.
NBA Comparison: Michael Redd
12. Doug McDermott PF- 22 years old; 6-foot-8, 225 lbs; Senior, Creighton
McDermott has become a guy I just love to watch, and it’s not like I DVR Creighton games. He’s a bit small to play down low, but he can clean up the defensive glass. The most intriguing part of McDermott’s game is his ability to stretch the floor. He needs to add muscle, but McDermott can post up and hit the turn-around jumper with a smooth flick of the wrist. He can spot up from three and launch it off the dribble. He could be a mismatch nightmare for big men in the NBA. He’s hit on 48 of 109 threes, and he’s not done. McDermott is No. 2 in NCAA history in field goals made with 972 buckets. He’s five field goals away from tying Bo McCalebb’s all-time record.
NBA Comparison: Kevin Love
13. Jerami Grant SF/PF – 19 years old; 6-foot-8, 210 lbs; Sophomore, Syracuse
Grant is a bit undersized to play down low, but if he can add some weight, he might be able to pull it off. He carries a ferocity in his defensive game, swatting shots like they smacked his mother. He doesn’t block a lot of shots, but he brings intensity to the paint. Grant is also a putback artist. If that ball floats off the rim, watch out for Grant because he’s probably already flying toward the ball. He doesn’t shoot a lot from distance, but he can improve upon it if need be. He’s probably best suited to be a small power forward and center.
NBA Comparison: Kenyon Martin
14. Gary Harris PG – 19 years old; 6-foot-4, 210 lbs; Sophomore, Michigan State
He’s listed as a shooting guard, but I think he has the IQ to run point. Harris can be a legitimate back-up point guard in the NBA. He doesn’t have star potential, but he knows how to run an offense. Tom Izzo-coached teams require high-IQ players and Harris is a smart player. He’s pesky off the ball and can finish in transition and at the rim. He’s not going to give you 20 points and 15 assists, but he can provide some much needed help off the bench. He’s a scoring guard. He’ll find a way to score.
NBA Comparison: Jay Williams
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