Karl-Anthony Towns is having one of the best rookie seasons in NBA history. Kristaps Porzingis has set Penn Station on fire. These two are the undisputed Rookie of the Year favorites to date. Both have struggled at times, yet they have both already held their own against All-Star opponents more often than not. Further, their versatility enables each of them to play alongside anybody.
Jahlil Okafor has been understandably up-and-down offensively without shooters surrounding him, and an utter disaster on defense for a 76ers’ team that was built to fail for the third year in a row. Okafor already attracts double-teams on a regular basis, but gets bullied just as badly (if not worse) on the other end. With the way the league is headed, it’s going to be hard for Oak to anchor the middle for a championship contender. The center that doesn’t defend well or protect the rim is a dying breed in today’s NBA—and even more-so when that center offers nothing along the perimeter on either end. Greg Monroe and Enes Kanter both earned big contracts this summer, but Monroe’s defensive woes are making Bucks fans miss journeyman Zaza Pachulia, and Kanter is taking a back seat to Steven Adams for a Thunder squad that doesn’t appear remotely ready to knock off the Spurs or Warriors out west.
That being said, Okafor does possess a nice midrange game, and a lovely bank shot. Oak has improved his free-throw percentage as a pro after struggling from the stripe in college and should continue improving offensively over time. The mistake he makes most often on that end is simply holding onto the ball for too long before beginning his move, allowing ample time for opponents to swallow him up with a double-team while stagnating the offense in general. Occasionally, Oak will take an off-balance shot, and he still gets his stuff thrown at among the highest rates in the league. He likely won’t ever extend his range to beyond the arc like Towns and Porzingis, but most of Oak’s recurring mishaps on offense seem very correctable. Still, until he devotes himself on the other end, it’s reasonable to question the Sixers’ decision to draft him—especially given the presence of Nerlens Noel and (hopefully next year) Joel Embiid. Some of it is becoming savvier as a defender (i.e., seeing man and ball at all times, learning to better read different situations.), and that stuff can come in time. Unless Oak significantly improves his lateral quickness, Pachulia probably serves as a solid role model for Oak on defense. Oak has to learn that he must always assume a low base, use his rear to clear hopeful offensive rebounders, and be willing to get down and dirty, or his impact on offense will likely be viewed as worthless.
Outside of big men Willie Cauley-Stein, Frank Kaminsky, the already drafted D’Angelo Russell and KAT, naming a top-10 pick that wouldn’t make more sense on the Sixers than Oak feels fairly easy. Yet, Oak is just a kid, and he is playing in an unenviable situation. During Friday’s showing versus the Knicks, Okafor and his teammates did not quit despite being down by 30 points a few minutes into the final quarter, and saved face in losing by only 10. Okafor also dominated Rob Lopez, Porzingis, and anyone else who dared to cover him in the post, blowing by Lopez with his quickness and using his strength to punish Porzingis before dunking in his face. Context is always among the most important things to consider when evaluating rookies—and for Sixers rookies, at least they get a chance to shine. Friday’s match-up versus the Knicks’ twin towers allowed Brett Brown the opportunity to play Oak and Noel together, but for the most part they have been awful when paired together—with Brown choosing to stagger the two, especially against teams that run more small-ball lineups.
Richaun Holmes had some absolutely exhilarating throw-downs on Friday, and he continues to be an intriguing rook for Philly. T.J. McConnell has moved to a bench role behind Kendall Marshall, but he continues to make smart plays and limit turnovers. In a flurry at the end of the first half on Friday, McConnell rebounded and scored the buzzer-beating layup following a Jerami Grant steal and miss off the backboard from near half-court that he mistakenly fired with a few seconds remaining. Part of the fact that he boasts such a solid assist-to-turnover ratio is that he doesn’t take a lot of risks, and as a result he doesn’t get to the free-throw line but once in a blue moon. The non-drafted McConnell could have a decent career as a backup point guard though, and now that Marshall has returned we will finally have the chance to watch McConnell compete primarily against opponents’ second units.
Anyways, moving on from Philly for a quick roundup of some other rookies across the league: Mario Hezonja has mostly been buried on the bench lately, D’Angelo Russell has begun earning more meaningful minutes, and WCS, Emmanuel Mudiay, Myles Turner, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are all hurt. Hezonja probably won’t play much this year given the Magic’s depth and Scott Skiles’ history of distrusting rookies unless the team gets hit hard by injuries. WCS has flashed his unique potential on defense, and Mudiay has managed pretty well for being a work-in-progress point guard without a jump shot. Kaminsky, Stanley Johnson, and Justice Winslow have all been better than expected on playoff-caliber teams. Boban Marjanovic and undrafted 26-year-old Jonathan Simmons are, unsurprisingly (since SA drafted them), looking like steals for the Spurs. The Nuggets’ international scouting continues to pay dividends, as center Nikola Jokic looks like the real deal. And the Suns’ Devin Booker’s shot is smoother than a baby’s bottom.
Trades, injuries, individual improvements, inconsistencies and regressions will all factor into the roles of the 2015 rookie class going forward. Many are still waiting patiently for a chance, and for some that chance won’t come this year, or even next year, but the following year. But one thing is certain: the 2015 NBA Draft seems like a deep one, and its only beginning to scratch the surface of its potential.
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